新巨丰:剔除激励费用23Q1扣非净利+62%,市占率显著提升

（以下内容从天风国际证券《新巨丰:剔除激励费用23Q1扣非净利+62%,市占率显著提升》研报附件原文摘录）
　　Shandong Xinjufeng Technology Packaging (301296 CH) 剔除激励费用23Q1扣非净利+62%，市占率显著提升 Q1 ex-nonrecurring net profit up 62% (excluding incentive fees) as Xinjufeng builds up market share ACCUMULATE (maintain) 投资要点/Investment Thesis 投资要点/Investment Thesis 公司发布22年报及23一季报，23Q1收入4.3亿（YoY+23.9%），归母净利0.4亿（YoY+19.2%）；剔除限制性股票和股票期权费用922万，23Q1净利同增46%，扣非净利同增62%。22Q4收入4.9亿（YoY+28%），归母净利0.5亿（YoY+19.1%）；22全年收入16.1亿（YoY+29.5%），归母净利1.7亿（YoY+7.8%）。 Results: net profit up 19% yoy in past 2 quarters; ex-nonrecurring up 62% in Q1 Xinjufeng released 2022 and 23Q1 earnings results. 23Q1 revenue came to RMB430m (up 23.9% yoy) and net profit came to RMB40m (up 19.2% yoy); excluding restricted shares and stock options expenses of RMB9.22m, net profit would have increased 46% yoy in the quarter, while ex-nonrecurring net profit rose 62% yoy. 22Q4 revenue came to RMB490m (up 28% yoy) and net profit to RMB50m (up 19.1% yoy). For the full year, 2022 revenue was RMB1.61bn (up 29.5%) and net profit was RMB170m (up 7.8%). 22年销量同增32%，市占率较20年提升3.7pct。 22年公司无菌包装销量达114.8亿包，同比+32%，占中国无菌包装市场10.1%，占中国液态奶无菌包装销量份额达13.3%，较20年9.6%的份额提升3.7pct。22年公司单包均价0.1396元/包，较21年小幅减少2%，我们推测为公司采取以价换量策略，快速抢占市场份额所致。截至22年底公司产能达180亿包（产能期初105亿包），为收入规模及市场份额扩张奠定基础。 Aseptic packaging sales rose 32% in 2022; market share expanded 3.7ppt vs 2020 The company sold 11.48bn packs of aseptic packaging in 2022, a robust 32% increase over 2021, and representing a 10.1% share of the China market. In terms of liquid milk sales, its aseptic packaging market share expanded 3.7ppt to 13.3% from 9.6% in 2020. Xinjufeng’s average price per pack dipped 2% yoy to RMB0.1396 in 2022, from which we surmise it had opted for a volume-over-price strategy to grow market share. By the end of 2022, production capacity had risen to 18bn packs (from 10.5bn packs pre-expansion), positioning it for scale revenue and market share uptrends. 深度绑定大客户，提升客户服务能力，通过战略合作实现双赢。 22年前五大客户占比90.6%（较21年+0.7pct），其中伊利占74.7%（较21年+4.4pct）。公司凭借优质的产品及服务增加客户粘性，不断调整客户结构，通过战略合作实现双赢，开发新客户及深挖老客户并重，并逐步拓展国际市场、针对细分市场进行专项开发。 Binding large customers, while enhancing customer service via strategic collabs Xinjufeng’s top five customers made up 90.6% of its business in 2022 (0.7ppt higher than the previous year), with Yili alone accounting for 74.7% (4.4ppt higher). Knowing that its quality products and services impact customer stickiness, the company continually tweaked its customer structure via strategic collaborations, focusing equally on building new customers and entrenching old ties. It seeks to expand its foreign market by catering to segmental differentials. 原材料价格上涨，叠加产品结构变化，盈利能力短期承压。 22年毛利率17.2%，同比-10.1pct，我们还原运费计入成本影响，毛利率20.1%，同比-7.2pct，我们判断主要系原材料价格上涨，产品结构调整、低毛利包型占比提升。23Q1毛利率19%，伴随原材料成本稳步回落，盈利水平有望企稳回升。 Rising raw material prices, product remix added short-term profitability pressure Gross margin narrowed 10.1ppt to 17.2% in 2022. When we remove the impact of freight on total cost, gross margin would have been 20.1%, narrowing just 7.2ppt. From this, we gauge that the key drag factors were rising raw material prices, the product restructure and a higher proportion of low-margin packaging. For this year, with Q1 gross margin at 19% and anticipating a steady decline in raw material costs, we expect profitability will stabilize and rise. 伴随乳制品行业发展，以及无菌包装生产效率提升，无菌包装有望加速发展。 中国无菌包装市场销量保持快速增长，18-21CAGR达8.3%，22年市场规模为1136亿包，自19年以来中国液奶市场保持稳步增长，未来或仍保持较高增速，无菌包装作为延长乳制品保质期的关键产品，市场前景可观。同时，随着包材和生产工艺的进步，单位无菌包装耗材更少、成本更低，易于回收再利用，行业技术升级、生产效率的提高将逐步降低无菌包装的生产成本，从而有望推动无菌包装加速替代其他包材，促进无菌包装在整体包装行业中的份额增长。 Dairy market growth and production efficiency raise aseptic packaging prospects China’s aseptic packaging sales volumes maintained a rapid growth trend of 8.3% CAGR over 2018-21, and industry sales amounted to 113.6bn packs in 2022. The liquid milk segment has paced steadily since 2019 and we expect high growth will continue. Looking ahead, the aseptic packaging market faces rosy prospects as a key product that extends the shelf life of dairy products. In addition, advances in packaging materials and production technologies and the rising ease of recycling could reduce the unit cost of aseptic packaging consumables. Meanwhile, technology and production efficiency upgrades would gradually lower aseptic packaging production cost and this would spur its substitution for other packaging materials. Hence, we anticipate the share of aseptic packaging will expand in the packaging industry. 竞争格局方面，外资仍占据较高份额，国产替代趋势明确。 截至2020年我国无菌包装市场中利乐占53.5%，随着国内无菌包装企业研制出更具性价比、且与利乐公司灌装机完全兼容的无菌包装产品，国内液态奶企业逐渐将国内无菌包装引入供应链，减少对外资供应商依赖，降低采购成本，保证供应链安全，国产替代趋势下，内资头部企业有望步入快速发展通道。 Dominance of foreign-funded players suggests Chinese substitution potential With an eye on Tetra Pak’s 53.5% share of China’s aseptic packaging market, domestic players are developing aseptic packaging products to be more cost-effective and fully compatible with Tetra Pak filling machines. On their part, Chinese liquid milk companies are gradually adding Chinese aseptic packaging to their supply chain. They aim to reduce dependence on foreign suppliers so as to reduce procurement cost and enhance supply chain security. In view of the Chinese substitution trend, we believe leading domestic players will enter a fast-growth trajectory. 投资建议/Investment Ideas 盈利预测与评级：我们看好公司作为内资无菌包装龙头，运营本地化及产品性价比优势突出，在国产替代与增量消费双轮驱动下，有望迎来快速增长，考虑到收入结构变化、砖包产品或增长更快，我们调整盈利预测，预计公司23-25年收入20.5/25.8/31.9亿（23/24年前值为22.1/29亿），预计公司23-25年归母净利2.2/2.9/3.6亿，对应PE 32x/25x/20x。 Valuation and risks We are bullish about Xinjufeng’s leading position in the Chinese aseptic packaging market on the strength of its localized operations and product cost advantages. We expect Chinese substitution and incremental demand to drive a rapid growth cycle for the company. We lower our 2023/24E projections to reflect changes in the company’s revenue structure and faster brick packaging growth. Thus, we forecast revenue of RMB2.05bn/2.58bn/3.19bn in 2023/24/25E (previously RMB2.21bn/2.9bn in 2023/24E) and net profit of RMB220m/290m/360m; with PE corresponding to 32/25/20x. We maintain our ACCUMULATE rating on the stock. 风险提示：客户集中度较高；行业竞争加剧；应收账款收回风险等。 Risks include: high customer concentration risks; intensifying competition; and accounts receivable collection risks. 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