国瓷材料:MLCC有望触底回升,看好全年多业务成长趋势

（以下内容从天风国际证券《国瓷材料:MLCC有望触底回升,看好全年多业务成长趋势》研报附件原文摘录）
　　Shandong Sinocera Functional Material (300285 CH) MLCC有望触底回升，看好全年多业务成长趋势 We anticipate MLCC market will bottom out while Sinocera drives multi-business growth through 2023E TP：RMB41.25 BUY (maintain) 投资要点/Investment Thesis 投资要点/Investment Thesis 事件：2023年4月17日，公司发布2022年年度报告，2022年实现营业收入31.67亿元，同比+0.16%，实现归母净利润4.97亿元，同比-37.49%，毛利率34.89%，同比-10.15pct。 2022 results: net profit fell 38%, gross margin down 10ppt on MLCC weakness Key financials: Sinocera released 2022 earnings results last week: revenue arrived at RMB3.17bn (up 0.16%) and net profit at RMB497m (down 37.49%); gross margin narrowed 10.15ppt to 34.89%. 点评：2022年公司电子材料板块受疫情冲击导致MLCC行业短暂低迷影响，营收同比-36.83%。我们认为随着5G通信推广及汽车电子的快速发展，MLCC行业景气度或将触底回暖。新能源、生物医疗、精密陶瓷营收同比+110.33%、+8.5%、+3.58%，多元化业务板块创新驱动公司业绩增长。 Product types: electronic materials revenue fell 36.83% in 2022 as pandemic factors brought a short-term downturn in multilayer ceramic capacitors (MLCC). For this year, we are expecting the MLCC market to bottom out and recover, as 5G communications and automotive electronics markets rev up. New energy/biomedical/precision ceramics revenues increased 110.33/8.5/3.58% last year as innovations in diverse business segments drove performance growth. 公司营收增长放缓，MLCC产业或将迎来回暖契机。2022年公司营业收入为31.67亿元，同比+0.16%，Q4实现7.24亿元，同比-18.52%，环比+1.63%；归母净利润4.97亿元，同比-37.49%，Q4实现0.4亿元，同比-79.33%，环比-26.08%，原因是作为全球领先的MLCC介质粉制造商，公司受疫情期间市场需求不振和行业周期下行等因素影响，MLCC业务销量下滑。（1）随着疫情影响逐渐减弱，5G通信技术普及有望助力公司纳米级复合氧化锆产品在电子产品陶瓷化趋势推动下呈现增长态势。（2）公司电子浆料业务得益于MLCC领域的资源和优势，保持迅速发展。（3）公司依靠科技赋能，紧跟汽车电动化、电气化、智能化发展趋势，满足相关设备对MLCC不断增长的需求，有望推动市场复苏行业发展。 MLCC will likely recover as drivers shape an industry recovery Sinocera’s revenue growth was flat in 2022 as it rose 0.16% to RMB3.17bn; Q4 came to RMB724m, down 18.52% yoy and up 1.63% qoq. Net profit fell 37.49% to RMB497m in 2022, with Q4 at RMB40m, down 79.33% yoy and down 26.08% qoq. The key drag was MLCC sales weakness. Sinocera, as the world’s leading MLCC dielectric powder producer, bore the brunt of sluggish market demand amid pandemic controls and a downturn in the industry cycle. Looking ahead, we expect these factors will drive a market recovery: ·As the pandemic impact wanes, we expect the growing popularity of 5G communications technology to bring a growth trend in the company’s nano-composite zirconia products, driven by the ceramicization of electronic products. ·The electronic paste business would benefit from the company’s MLCC resources and advantages to maintain rapid growth. ·The company works on technological empowerment to keep up with development trends in automobile electrification, general electrification and intelligentization, to meet growing demand for MLCC in related equipment markets. 深耕高端陶瓷基板领域，垂直一体化布局优势显著。（1）公司作为国内陶瓷基板企业的重要供应商，自研230W/(m·K)高导热氮化铝陶瓷基片实现量产，有效填补国内市场空缺，下游行业需求强劲。（2）公司以3. 98亿元收购国内DPC陶瓷基板头部公司赛创电气，完善陶瓷粉体-陶瓷基片-下游陶瓷金属化产业链布局，有望持续推进国内陶瓷基板的进口替代。 High-end ceramic substrate buildup adds vertical market integration advantages ·Sinocera mass produces its proprietary 230W/mk aluminum nitride ceramic substrates as a key supplier to Chinese ceramic substrate companies. Driven by strong demand from downstream industries, the products’ high thermal conductivity properties effectively fill the gap in the Chinese market. ·The company acquired Saichuang Electric for RMB398m. The latter is a Chinese leader in DPC ceramic substrates and the acquisition boosts Sinocera’s ceramic powder, ceramic substrate and downstream ceramic metallization value chain coverage. We expect it will continue to drive up import substitution in the Chinese ceramic substrate market. 新能源需求推动公司氧化铝、勃姆石和纳米氧化锆迅速增长。2022年公司新能源材料板块实现营收2.39亿元，同比+110.33%。（1）在隔膜陶瓷涂覆领域，公司产品产销两旺，业绩表现强劲。公司落实1.5万吨高纯超细氧化铝和2.5万吨勃姆石产线建设，规模效应逐显。（2）公司携手头部正极材料生产商，锂电池正极添加剂积极扩充新产能。（3）氧化锆微珠积极拓展新能源锂电池行业市场，产品实现快速放量。 Alumina, boehmite and nano-zirconia rapid growth fueled by new energy demand The new energy materials business generated revenue of RMB239m in 2022, up 110.33%. These were the main factors: ·Diaphragm ceramic coatings: business was robust and Sinocera’s production and sales boomed. Its incremental production capacity buildout was apparent as scale rose with the construction of 15kt high-purity ultra-fine alumina and 25kt boehmite production capacities. ·The company joined hands with leading cathode material manufacturers to expand production capacity for lithium battery cathode additives. ·Zirconia microbeads support the new energy lithium battery market and the products achieved rapid sales growth. 国内齿科氧化锆龙头，看好海外赛道产能优化。2022年公司生物医疗材料板块营收7.54亿元，占总营收23.81%，同比+8.50%。在口腔修复领域，牙科用纳米级复合氧化锆粉体业务持续增长，并通过国际化布局和海外市场开拓加速产品线拓展和销售收入增长。未来有望加强国际化组织建设和资本运作，发挥与韩国Spident公司的协同效应，提升韩国市场占有率。 Dental zirconia Chinese market leader: capacity optimization lifts export market Biomedical materials revenue came to RMB754m in 2022, up 8.50% and accounting for 23.81% of total revenue. Driven by dental prosthetics, the role of nano-composite zirconia powder in dentistry continued to grow, as the company accelerated product line expansion and sales revenue growth by optimizing its global network and building out its export market. We expect the buildout will strengthen in terms of global organization and capital operations. Synergy with Korean company Spident could increase its Korean market share. 陶瓷轴承球助力新能源汽车，加速产业扩容。2022年公司精密陶瓷板块实现营收1.69亿元，同比+3.58%。（1）公司成功研发氮化硅陶瓷轴承球，满足新能源汽车800V高压快充需求，有效应对电腐蚀问题。（2）子公司深圳爱尔创新材料生产的陶瓷套筒在光模块与无源连接领域表现突出，2022年营收5.28亿元，市场需求稳定增长。 Ceramic ball bearings as NEV support market enjoys rising industry expansion The precision ceramics business generated revenue of RMB169m in 2022, up 3.58%. We attribute the following drivers: ·Sinocera successfully developed silicon nitride ceramic ball bearings, which meet the 800V high-voltage fast-charging requirements of new energy vehicles and effectively deals with the electrical corrosion issue. ·Ceramic sleeves produced by subsidiary Shenzhen Aier Innovative Materials performed well in the optical modules and passive connections markets, generating revenue of RMB528m in 2022 as market demand grew steadily. 投资建议/Investment Ideas 投资建议：预计公司23-25年营收分别为 38.66、45.83、54.35 亿元，归母净利润为 7.50、9.99、12.98 亿元，给予“买入”评级。 Forecast and risks We forecast revenue of RMB3.87bn/4.58bn/5.44bn in 2023/24/25E and net profit of RMB750m/999m/1.30bn. We maintain our BUY rating with a price target of RMB41.25. 风险提示：疫情影响下游需求不稳定风险、原材料价格波动风险、募投项目建设不及预期风险、市场竞争加剧风险、收购交易相关风险。 Risks include: pandemic impact on downstream demand stability; raw material price fluctuations; worse-than-expected fundraising investment project construction; intensifying competition; and risks related to acquisition transactions. 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