富春染织: 产能提升扩大业务规模,格局优化加强竞争优势

（以下内容从天风国际证券《富春染织: 产能提升扩大业务规模,格局优化加强竞争优势》研报附件原文摘录）
　　Wuhu Fuchun Dye and Weave (605189 CH) 产能提升扩大业务规模，格局优化加强竞争优势 Initiating coverage: multiple capacity ramp-up set to scale up production while vertical expansion adds advantage TP：RMB29.40 BUY (Initiation) 投资要点/Investment Thesis 投资要点/Investment Thesis 深耕色纱二十余载，聚焦主业高速发展。富春染织作为国内领先的色纱生产企业之一，主营业务为色纱的研发、生产和销售。自成立以来，公司以市场潮流和客户需求为导向，围绕自主品牌“天外天”，依托自主开发、涵盖六百余种色彩的富春标准色卡，通过“仓储式生产为主，订单式生产为辅”的经营模式，致力于为客户提供高品质的色纱系列产品。 Chinese dyed yarn stalwart aims to drive up core business growth As a leading manufacturer in China, Fuchun Dye & Weave researches and develops the technology to produce and sell quality dyed yarns. From the beginning, it has kept abreast of market trends and customer needs to supply product lines that center on its Tianwaitian brand. Using proprietary technologies, it produces yarns in more than 600 colors based on its Fuchun standard color card. The company describes its business model as “warehouse-based production as the mainstay and order-driven production as the supplement”. 棉价企稳市场恢复，业绩稳步向上。2022年营收同增1.5%至22.08亿元，主要系疫情政策优化，大宗商品价格企稳，棉花价格稳中有涨，纱、布市场购销氛围回暖，销售价格及销量增加所致；得益于收入快速增长和费用管控合理，2018-2022年归母净利润由0.98亿元增长至1.63亿元，CAGR达10.4%。 Steady uptrend on stabilizing cotton prices and a market recovery Sales price and volume increases led revenue to increase 1.5% to RMB2.21bn in 2022. The key drivers were: China moderated its pandemic policy, bulk commodity prices stabilized, cotton prices rose steadily as yarn and textile trading began to warm up. Helped by fast revenue growth and expense control, Fuchun’s net profit trended at a 10.4% CAGR over 2018-22 to arrive at RMB163m (from RMB98m). 产能逐步释放，加速垂直整合供应链。2022年是公司5年行动计划的开局之年，四大项目同时开工建设，产能将在2023年得到迅速释放。公司同时新建项目包括:芜湖年产3wt筒子纱生产线建设项目、荆州6wt筒子纱染色建设项目、芜湖年产3wt纤维染色建设项目、芜湖保税区50万锭智能纺纱项目。此外，公司已公告11wt高品质筒子纱生产线建设项目可行性报告作为储备。同时公司积极向产业链上游延伸，完善公司产业链布局。拟投资智能化精密纺纱，项目建成后可实现年产50万锭精密纺纱线的生产能力。 Simultaneous capacity rollouts ahead to expand vertical value chain coverage Fuchun’s 5-year action plan kicked off in 2022 when it began the simultaneous construction of four major projects, aiming to roll out production capacities quickly in 2023E. They consist of: a 3wt p.a yarn cone production line in Wuhu; a 6wt p.a. yarn cone dyeing facility in Jingzhou; a 3wt p.a. fiber dyeing facility in Wuhu; and a 500,000-spindle smart facility in the Wuhu Free Trade Zone. Fuchun announced that it had also conducted a feasibility report on constructing a 11wt p.a. high-quality yarn cone production line as a back-up. The company wants to expand upstream to increase its value chain coverage. It intends to invest in a smart facility for precision spun yarn, which would add 500,000-spindle p.a. capacity on completion. 环保监管趋于严格，龙头份额有望提升。公司在细分行业的主要竞争对手相对分散，凭借着常年深耕市场形成的技术优势和良好的品牌影响力，公司处于相对领先的市场地位。随着环境监管政策趋于严格，部分中小企业由于设备落后、研发能力不足，无法达到环保标准，逐步被淘汰。同时，终端需求增速放缓导致行业内竞争更加激烈，叠加劳动力成本上升影响，对行业内传统印染企业所依赖的低利润率经营模式造成打击，淘汰率进一步提高，龙头份额有望提升。 Market share set to increase as environmental regulation gets more stringent Fuchun’s main rivals are scattered among different industry segments. It sits comfortably at the forefront of the industry, having sharpened its technological edge and amassed brand influence after decades of market cultivation. As environmental regulatory policies get stricter, SMEs with obsolete equipment and weak R&D ability would struggle to comply with the new standards and would likely exit the market gradually. Slowing growth in end-demand has also created a harsher competitive arena, adding to rising labor costs. The conflation of these factors essentially deals a death blow to the low-margin business model held sacred by traditional textile print and dye companies. We see faster elimination ahead and expect industry leaders will increase market share. 仓储式生产凸显成本优势，研发能力构筑核心壁垒。公司使用仓储式生产，有效推动规模生产。技术改造提高生产效率，降低单位能耗。公司独特成本优势主要体现在能耗和用水成本低于同行。公司拥有行业领先的研发能力，自主研发天外天现货色卡，成为了袜业用纱的行业标准；与高校展开产学研合作，提高自身研发水平，重点在染色技术、节能减排、智能制造等方面形成一系列具有竞争力的技术成果，支撑公司快速健康发展。 Warehouse-based production drives cost advantage; R&D erects core barriers Fuchun’s warehouse-based model enables scale production while a tech restructure enabled better production efficiency and lower unit energy consumption. Its unique advantage is that its energy consumption and water costs are lower than those of its peers. Fuchun’s industry-leading R&D capability birthed its proprietary Tianwaitian spot color cards, which have become the industry standard for the yarn used in the hosiery industry. Linking arms with colleges and universities has enabled industry-academic-research collaborations that drove up its R&D standards. It has accomplished a series of cutting-edge tech solutions in dyeing, energy saving, emission reduction and smart manufacture, all of which maps out a healthy growth course for its future. 投资建议/Investment Ideas 首次覆盖，给予买入评级。公司作为纱线染色龙头，具备规模效应，在成本控制方面优势显著，随着扩产项目陆续投产，新品类新客户持续拓展，我们预计公司23-25年收入分别为30.88/37.56/44.73亿元，归母净利润分别为2.60/3.36/3.98亿元，EPS分别为2.1/2.7/3.2元/股。 Valuation and risks Dyed yarn leader Fuchun enjoys scale economies and cost advantages. We anticipate it will continue to expand into new categories and build up new customers as it rolls out a series of production capacities up ahead. We forecast revenue will arrive at RMB3.09bn/3.76bn/4.47bn and net profit at RMB260m/336m/398m in 2023/24/25E; implying RMB2.10/2.70/3.20 EPS. We initiate coverage with a BUY rating and price target of RMB29.40. 风险提示：产能释放不及预期、原材料价格波动、行业竞争加剧、环境保护、汇率波动等风险 Risks include: worse-than-expected production capacity releases; raw material price fluctuations; intensifying competition; environmental regulatory risks; and FX volatility. 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