百隆东方:业绩创新高,静待订单拐点

（以下内容从天风国际证券《百隆东方:业绩创新高,静待订单拐点》研报附件原文摘录）
　　Bros Eastern (601339 CH) 业绩创新高，静待订单拐点 What’s next after a record 2022 net profit? We await a potential order inflection point ahead BUY (maintain) 投资要点/Investment Thesis 投资要点/Investment Thesis 2022年营收69.89亿同减10.1%，归母净利15.63亿同增14.0% 收入减少主要系Q2后经济下行压力逐步显现，消费疲弱；海外市场受俄乌战争影响，欧美主要经济体能源、食品等大宗商品价格上涨、通货膨胀加剧，纺织服装消费需求急剧萎缩，叠加海外服装品牌去库存压力。其中22Q1-4总营收及增速分别为19.75亿元（+5.4%）、19.89亿元（-2.8%）、17.63亿元（+7.6%）、12.62亿元（-43.1%）； 2022 net profit rose 14% to RMB1.563bn despite 10% fall in revenue to RMB6.99bn Revenue: Bros Eastern’s revenue came in lower yoy in 2022, dragged by growing economic pressure post-Q2 and accompanying consumption weakness. Export markets were also affected by the Russia-Ukraine war; with rising prices in energy, food and other bulk commodities, while inflation sharpened, and textile and apparel consumer demand spiraled, adding destocking pressure at foreign apparel brands. Bros Eastern posted 22Q1/2/3/4 revenues (and growth rates) at RMB1.98bn (up 5.4% yoy)/ 1.99bn (down 2.8% yoy)/ 1.76bn (up 7.6% yoy)/ 1.26bn (down 43.1% yoy). 分产品看，2022年公司色纺纱收入36.31亿元（占主营业务56.7%，下同），同减24.9%；坯纱收入27.76亿元（43.3%），同增8.0%； Products: colored spun yarn revenue came to RMB3.63bn in 2022 (down 24.9%; accounting for 56.7% of core revenue) and gray yarn revenue was RMB2.78bn (up 8.0%; 43.3% of core). 分地区看，2022年公司境内地区营收18.09亿元（28.2%），同减32.8%；境外地区营收45.98亿元（71.8%），同减2.5%。 Regions: China revenue amounted to RMB1.81bn in 2022 (down 32.8%; 28.2% of core) and export revenue came to RMB4.60bn (down 2.5%; 71.8% of core). 归母净利增长主要系：1）22Q1国内市场延续21Q4强劲增长势头，订单饱满，企业生产、经营业绩持续向好；2）公司充分发挥产能布局优势，紧贴市场，积极回应客户需求，实现高质量发展。其中22Q1-4归母净利及增速分别为3.45亿元（+54.6%）、4.32亿元（+31.9%）、2.62亿元（+8.5%）、5.25亿元（-9.4%）。 Net profit: the robust net profit performance was mainly driven by: ·the China market’s full order book led a strong growth momentum from 21Q4 to 22Q1, while production and operating performance also improved. ·the company fully leveraged its production capacity network advantages, along with close alignment to the market, nimble responses to customer needs and quality growth. 22Q1/2/3/4 net profit (and growth rates) were at RMB345m (up 54.6% yoy)/ 432m (up 31.9% yoy)/ 262m (up 8.5% yoy)/ 525m (down 9.4% yoy). 毛利率26.87%同增0.66pct，归母净利润率22.36%同增4.73pct 分产品看，2022年色纺纱毛利率27.15%，同比增长1.57pct；坯纱毛利率24.50%，同比减少2.15pct。 分地区看，2022年境内毛利率19.10%，同比减少0.15pct；境外毛利率28.71%，同比减少1.07pct。 2022 gross margin of 26.87%, up 0.66ppt yoy; net margin of 22.36%, up 4.73ppt yoy Products: colored spun yarn had a gross margin of 27.15% in 2022, up 1.57ppt yoy; while gray yarn gross margin was 24.50%, down 2.15ppt yoy. Regions: China market gross margin was 19.10% in 2022, down 0.15ppt yoy; while foreign markets had a collective gross margin of 28.71%, down 1.07ppt yoy. 2021年两期股票期权激励计划第一次行权工作已完成，共163名激励对象完成行权，行权股票数量776.10万份。此举进一步优化了公司决策机制、提高公司治理水平，有效激发了员工的工作热情，使员工能够共享公司发展成果。 Stock options: Bros Eastern exercised phase I of its two-phase 2021 stock option incentive plan and fulfilled the granting of 7.76m shares to 163 personnel. The move strengthened its decision-making mechanism and improved corporate governance levels, and raised staff motivation by aligning their interests with the company’s growth and achievements. 展望2023年：1）持续创新研发投入，引领行业创新发展；2）推进技改投入，提质增效；3）以市场需求为导向，调整丰富产品线，进一步开拓销售市场；4）继续投入越南百隆 39 万锭纱线扩产项目，按计划进度达产显效；5）坚持践行绿色可持续发展理念，推进企业绿色发展。 2023E roadmap markers: innovation, quality, capacity, demand-driven, green ·Keep investing into R&D as a frontrunner in innovations and lead industry growth; ·push for investment into a technological restructure to raise quality and efficiency; ·respond to market demand by adjusting and enriching the product line; and develop sales markets further; ·continue to invest into expanding the 390,000-spindle Vietnam Bailong yarn production project to ensure that it progresses on schedule; ·continue to practice a green and sustainable development mindset to drive the company’s green growth. 投资建议/Investment Ideas 调整盈利预测，维持买入评级。公司前瞻布局东南亚产能构筑核心竞争力，把握优质客户资源；未来随棉价上涨、产能利用率回升，公司业绩有望持续向好。考虑到出口需求影响订单增速放缓，而市场份额提升公司议价能力逐步增强，我们预计公司2023-25年收入分别为75/79/87亿（23-24原值分别为88/97亿），归母净利分别为16/16/19亿（23-24原值分别为20/21亿），对应EPS分别为1.1/1.1/1.3元/股（23-24原值分别为1.3/1.4元/股），对应PE分别为5.7/5.7/4.8x。 Valuation and risks Bros Eastern is raising core competitiveness under a forward-looking Southeast Asia production capacity network plan, while securing quality customer resources. Thus, even with rising cotton prices in the future, its production capacity utilization would keep improving and we expect business performance will maintain an uptrend. Taking into account an order growth slowdown on export demand weakness as well as the company’s rising bargaining power on its market share growth, we forecast revenue at RMB7.5bn/7.9bn/8.7bn in 2023/24/25E (we lower our 2023/24E numbers from RMB8.8bn/9.7bn); and net profit at RMB1.6bn/1.6bn/1.9bn (2023/24E were previously at RMB2.0bn/2.1bn). Corresponding EPS are RMB1.1/1.1/1.3 (previously RMB1.3/1.4 for 2023/24E) with PE at 5.7/5.7/4.8x. We maintain our BUY rating on the stock. 风险提示：全球宏观经济波动影响下游需求；市场竞争加剧；原材料、能源及劳动力成本波动；贸易政策风险；境外经营风险等。 Risks include: global macroeconomic volatility affecting downstream demand; intensifying competition; raw material, energy and labor cost volatility; trade policy risks; and foreign market risks. 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