中国电影: 电影全产业链龙头,国企担当行稳致远

（以下内容从天风国际证券《中国电影: 电影全产业链龙头,国企担当行稳致远》研报附件原文摘录）
　　China Film (600977 CH) 电影全产业链龙头，国企担当行稳致远 Initiating coverage: SOE and market leader China Film likely to sustain steady development for the long term BUY (Initiation) 投资要点/Investment Thesis 投资要点/Investment Thesis 中影集团控股，电影全产业链布局的文化国企 公司成立于2010年12月，于2016年8月在上海证券交易所上市。经过多年发展，现已形成电影创作、宣传发行、影院管理、技术研发等覆盖全行业的产业链体系。目前公司主营业务包括创作、发行、放映、科技、服务、创新六大板块，其中国产片和进口片的发行业务为第一大收入来源，2021年贡献收入超3成；受益于科技板块高格式电影CINITY、电影器材业务等的稳步扩张，科技板块收入增长明显，2021年已超过放映板块成为第二大收入支柱。公司控股股东为中影集团，稳健发展充分彰显国企担当。 China Film Group subsidiary and cultural SOE covers entire film value chain China Film was established in December 2010 and listed on the Shanghai Stock Exchange in August 2016. Its business spans the film industry value chain, encompassing film creation, publicity and distribution, theater management and technological R&D. The six major divisions are: (1) film creation; (2) distribution; (3) screening; (4) technology; (5) services and (6) innovations. Its largest income earner is the distribution of both Chinese and imported films, which contributed more than 30% of revenue in 2021. Its Cinity premium-format and film equipment business benefits from the steady expansion of the technology division, whose fast revenue growth leapfrogged the screening division to become the second-largest income stream in 2021. Backed by controlling shareholder China Film Group, China Film’s steady growth trajectory demonstrates its SOE strength. 行业回暖趋势明显，景气度提升 2023年电影市场呈现回暖趋势，从供需两侧看，一方面政策端伴随防疫政策优化、线下活动常态化，观众观影需求有望回暖；另一方面内容端就目前已定档影片内容来看，往年积压项目和新内容供应下，内容供给较为充沛、题材丰富，以及进口片常态化回归，票房缺口有望补足。 We see a visible industry recovery trend as future prospects brighten The film market is clearly on a recovery trend in 2023E, in our view. Demand wise, we believe pandemic management policy optimization and normalizing offline activities will lead to a pick-up in cinema-going consumption. Supply wise, content film prospects are looking good, based on the scheduled film release pipeline. In view of the new project and content backlog from the past few years, the current content pipeline is rich with theme films, while imported film releases are returning to normal. We thus expect the company to rebuilt box-office growth. 全产业链布局下充分受益于行业回暖，业绩有望实现触底反弹 1）放映板块：短期票房回暖、影院正常经营直接驱动放映收入修复。影投方面，公司控股影院扩张速度放缓，更注重单屏精细化运营；院线方面，2022年全国票房前十院线中，中数院线/中影南方/中影星美分列第2/5/9名，保持领先优势； 2）发行板块：进口片引进贡献中长期业绩弹性。公司在进口片引进上享有政策红利，进口片发行收入为发行板块主要收入来源； 3）创作板块：核心影片主控把握，制片业务稳健推进。公司近几年制片业务亮眼，主控出品《流浪地球2》（2023）、《我和我的父辈》（2021）、《金刚川》（2020）均获得优异票房成绩，在主旋律影片创作上形成方法论； 4）科技板块：研发推广高技术格式电影系统，占领技术发展制高点。公司2021年完成对CINITY相关股权收购，积极推动高格式电影技术对成本、效率的优化作用。 Entire value chain coverage: industry recovery beneficiary; we expect bottom-out Screening: the box-office recovery and normalizing cinema operations would directly drive a recovery in screening revenue. Film screenings slowed down when the company’s cinema holdings expanded, so it paid more attention to single-screen premium offerings. The company maintained its competitive edge in 2022: China’s top 10 theater chains in terms of box-office takings included Zhongshu (2nd), China Film South (5th) and China Film Stellar (9th). Distribution: imported film launches contribute to medium and long-term performance elasticity. China Film has a policy advantage when it comes to imported film releases and imported films form the bulk of its distribution income. Film creation: its key films are progressing smoothly in terms of production. China Film’s production business has shown a stellar performance in recent years. Its blockbuster productions include The Wandering Earth 2 (2023), My Country, My Parents (2021) and The Sacrifice (2020), which performed well at the box office, a testament to its success formula based on theme films. Technology: the company develops and promotes premium-tech format film systems that are at the cutting edge of the global film industry. China Film completed the acquisition of Cinity shares in 2021, a related business that promotes premium-format screenings, which optimize cost and efficiency. 投资建议/Investment Ideas 投资建议：我们预测2022-2024年公司营业收入为36.57/64.58/80.04亿元，同比变动-37.1%/76.6%/23.9%。2022-2024年归母净利润为-2.20/9.57/11.28亿元。考虑到公司国有文化企业性质，以及在电影行业全产业链布局优势，有望充分受益于票房回暖、行业景气度提升，同时CINITY科技板块拓展势头较佳，首次覆盖给予“买入”评级。 Valuation and risks We forecast revenue of RMB3.66bn/6.46bn/8.00bn in 2022/23/24E, changing -37.1/ +76.6/+23.9% yoy; with net profit at RMB-220m/+957m/+1.13bn. As a cultural SOE, China Film holds considerable advantages across the film value chain. We expect it will fully benefit from China’s box-office recovery and improving industry growth. On top of that, Cinity’s advanced technological positioning ensures a healthy expansion momentum. We initiate coverage of China Film with a BUY rating. 风险提示：电影市场恢复不及预期；进口片常态化引进不及预期；电影内容上映票房不及预期；政策监管风险；第三方数据准确性风险。 Risks include: a worse-than-expected film market recovery; less-than-expected normalization of the imported film market; film content driving lower-than-expected box-office takings; policy regulatory risks; and third-party data accuracy risks. 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