大胜达:终端需求复苏,盈利企稳向上

（以下内容从天风国际证券《大胜达:终端需求复苏,盈利企稳向上》研报附件原文摘录）
　　Zhejiang Great Shengda Packaging (603687 CH) 终端需求复苏，盈利企稳向上 Initiating coverage: recovering end-demand led Great Shengda’s profit uptrend to stabilize BUY (Initiation) 投资要点/Investment Thesis 投资要点/Investment Thesis 浙江大胜达包装有限公司核心产品为瓦楞纸箱。广泛应用于啤酒、饮料、烟草、电子、家电、家具、机械、快递物流、化工、服装等行业的内外包装。瓦楞纸箱可分为三类，常规纸箱、胶印彩色纸箱和常规彩色纸箱。 22Q1-3营收14.68亿元，同增25.96%；22Q1-3归母净利润0.76亿元，同增60.59%。22Q1-2公司营收9.66亿元，同增28.04%；归母净利润0.53亿元，同增60.29%，主要系1）公司战略布局的新设工厂随着市场开拓力度加大，订单量和销售量稳步增长；2）收购子公司导致合并范围主体增加所致。 Robust growth due to timely capacity ramp-up and business consolidation Zhejiang Great Shengda Packaging’s core product is corrugated boxes, which are widely used as inner and outer packaging for beer and other beverages, tobacco, electronics, home appliances, furniture, machinery, express logistics, chemical industry, clothing and other industries. It makes 3 types of cartons: regular, offset color and regular color. 22Q1-3 revenue came to RMB1.47bn, up 25.96% yoy, and net profit to RMB76m, up 60.59% yoy. Over 22H1, revenue amounted to RMB966m, up 28.04% yoy, and net profit was RMB53m, up 60.29% yoy. We attribute its robust business growth to: ·a production network strategy that aligns new factory rollouts with a rising market momentum, and this has driven steady growth in order and sales volumes; ·the acquisition of subsidiaries increased the number of entities and consolidated its business scope. 瓦楞纸箱包装行业景气度有望提升，主要系：1）成本端：公司原材料成本有望下行，毛利率或将上升；2）供给端：消费升级趋势下，瓦楞纸箱行业集中度有望提升，利好龙头企业；3）需求端；快递行业为瓦楞纸箱需求的主要增长点。快递行业飞速发展促使快递瓦楞包装份额提升。电商、物流业的迅速发展激发大量箱板瓦楞纸新增需求。根据国家邮政局，预计我国2022年快递业务量将达1225亿件，同比增长约13%。 Outlook: corrugated box packaging set to grow on cost, supply, demand trends We expect the following trends will continue to stoke current boom in the corrugated box packaging business: ·cost: we expect Great Shengda’s raw material costs will decline and drive a gross margin increase; ·supply: the consumer upgrade trend would likely lead to rising concentration of the corrugated box industry, which would favor market leaders; ·demand: express deliveries are a main growth catalyst for corrugated box demand. The fast growth of the courier industry has boosted the market proportion of express delivery corrugated paper packaging, while the ecommerce and logistics industries have boosted corrugated paper demand volumes. The State Post Bureau estimates China made 122.5bn express deliveries in 2022, a yoy increase of about 13%. 公司具有优质、稳定的客户资源优势，且卷烟商标、精品酒盒包装行业进入门槛高。长期合作的客户包括松下电器、三星电子、 美的电器、 博世（BOSCH）、农夫山泉、华润啤酒、老板电器、苏泊尔、顺丰速运、浙江中烟等世界 500 强、中国 500 强和细分行业龙头企业。下游家电、电子、烟酒等行业集中度高，龙头企业更加关注纸包装产品的质量，对供应商有严格的评审标准，为了保证包装供应的持续性和稳定性，客户倾向于与合格的包装供应商保持长期、稳定的合作关系。 Quality customers; cigarette trademark, premium wine packaging market barriers Longtime customers of Great Shengda Packaging include Panasonic, Samsung Electronics, Midea, Bosch (BOSCH), Nongfu Spring, China Resources Beer, Robam Appliances, Supor, SF Holding and Zhejiang China Tobacco, as well as other Fortune 500 and China 500 leaders and sub-sector leaders. Great Shengda’s downstream markets of household appliances, electronics, tobacco and alcohol are highly concentrated industries, where leading players prioritize the quality of their paper packaging products and set strict evaluation standards for their suppliers. To ensure the continuity and stability of their packaging supply, customers would tend to maintain long-term and stable ties with their qualified packaging suppliers. 公司ROE及毛利率较高，盈利能力较强。22Q1-3公司毛利率为14.82%，较合兴包装高6.05pct，较龙利得低4.53pct。 公司存货周转率较高，营运能力较强。22Q1-3公司存货周转率为4.94次，较龙利得多3.87次，较合兴包装少1.37次。公司应收账款周转天数稳定且近期呈缓慢下降趋势，22Q1-3同比减少0.56天。智能化生产加快公司订单响应速度，提高运营能力。以智能化设备、物联网技术为抓手，整合多个设备系统、生产管控系统数据接口，构建了适合于纸包装生产企业的数据体系，在采集、汇聚和分析海量数据的基础上，不仅实现了生产数据的实时在线监控，而且通过智能决策辅助系统推动制造资源与前端订单、供应链管理、物流资源的高效链接和配置，加快了公司的订单响应速度，提升了生产运营效率。 Healthy profitability: high ROE and high gross margin at 14.8% Great Shengda had a gross margin of 14.82% in 22Q1-3, 6.05ppt above Hexing Packaging and 4.53ppt below LD Intelligent Technology. Other operating metrics: ·High inventory turnover and robust operating capacity: the company’s inventory turnover rate was 4.94x in 22Q1-3, 3.87 above LD Intelligent Technology and 1.37 below Hexing Packaging. ·Stable accounts receivable turnover: it has shown a slow downtrend recently, with a yoy decrease of 0.56 days in 22Q1-3. Smart production sped up order responses and improved operational capabilities With smart equipment and IOT technology as a starting point, the company integrated multiple equipment systems and production control system data interfaces to build a data system for paper packaging production companies. The collecting, gathering and analyzing of massive data not only provides real-time online monitoring of production data but also achieves efficient linkage and the configuration of manufacturing resources and front-end orders, supply chain managementand logistics resources via a smart decision-making assistance system. The results are faster order responses and better production and operational efficiency. 投资建议/Investment Ideas 首次覆盖，给予“买入”评级 我们选取包装行业合兴包装、裕同科技、吉宏股份作为可比公司。我们认为公司23年较同行可比公司拥有更强的成长性，给予大胜达23年PE为19.2-21.2x，对应目标市值44.50-49.14亿元，目标价格区间为10.61-11.71元。 Valuation and risks To value Great Shengda, we compare the company against packaging peers Hexing Packaging, Yutong Packaging Technology and Jihong Technology. We believe Great Shengda will outperform peers due to its stronger growth potential in 2023E. We assign a 2023E PE of 19.2-21.2x, implying a target market cap of RMB4.45bn-4.91bn, with our target price ranging RMB10.61-11.71. We initiate coverage with a BUY rating. 风险提示：原材料价格波动风险；市场需求波动风险；宏观经济周期波动的风险；公司扩大业务品类导致的管理风险；项目并购及商誉减值风险；测算具有一定主观性，仅供参考。 Risks include: raw material price fluctuations; demand volatility; macroeconomic cyclical fluctuations; management risks related to business category expansion; and M&A projects and goodwill impairment risks. Note: our estimates have a degree of subjectivity and are for reference only. Email: equity@tfisec.com TFI research report website: (pls scan the QR code) 本文件由天风国际资产管理有限公司（证监会中央编号：ASF056）编制，所载资料可能以若干假设为基础，仅供专业投资者作非商业用途及参考之用途，会因经济、市场及其他情况而随时更改而毋须另行通知。任何媒体、网站或个人未经授权不得转载、链接、转贴或以其他方式复制发表本文件及任何内容。已获授权者，在使用本文件或任何内容时必须注明稿件来源于天风国际集团，并承诺遵守相关法例及一切使用的国际惯例，不为任何非法目的或以任何非法方式使用本文件，违者将依法追究相关法律责任。本文件所引用之数据或资料可能得自第三方，天风国际集团将尽可能确认资料来源之可靠性，但天风国际集团并不对第三方所提供数据或资料之准确性负责。且天风国际集团不会就本文件所载任何资料、预测及／或意见的公平性、准确性、时限性、完整性或正确性，以及任何该等预测及／或意见所依据的基准作出任何明文或暗示的保证、陈述、担保或承诺而负责或承担任何法律责任。本文件中如有类似前瞻性陈述之内容，此等内容或陈述不得视为对任何将来表现之保证，且应注意实际情况或发展可能与该等陈述有重大落差。本文件并非及不应被视为邀约、招揽、邀请、建议买卖任何投资产品或投资决策之依据，亦不应被诠释为专业意见。阅览本文件的人士或在作出任何投资决策前，应完全了解其风险以及有关法律、赋税及会计的特点及后果，并根据个人的情况决定投资是否切合个人的投资目标，以及能否承担有关风险，必要时应寻求适当的专业意见。投资涉及风险。敬请投资者注意，证券及投资的价值可升亦可跌，过往的表现不一定可以预示日后的表现。在若干国家，传阅及分派本文件的方式可能受法律或规例所限制。获取本文件的人士须知悉及遵守该等限制。

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