神州泰岳:游戏出海龙头之一,焕发新生

（以下内容从天风国际证券《神州泰岳:游戏出海龙头之一,焕发新生》研报附件原文摘录）
　　Beijing Ultrapower Software (300002 CH) 游戏出海龙头之一，焕发新生 Initiating coverage: SLG edge increases while strategic rebuild of computer business adds new momentum TP:RMB9.90 BUY (Initiation) 投资要点/Investment Thesis 投资要点/Investment Thesis 游戏SLG出海龙头之一，计算机业务降本增效 神州泰岳成立于2001年，2009年为首批深交所创业板上市企业之一，始于ICT，2013年通过收购壳木软件进军游戏行业，自此拥有游戏和计算机的双主营业态，2018年后，新管理团队实施战略调整，计算机业务降本增效焕发新生，游戏业务高速增长上新台阶。目前公司四大核心业务为游戏、ICT运营管理、物联网/通讯、人工智能/大数据，2022年公司业绩快报披露归母净利润同比增长42.54%，主要受益于游戏业务拉动。 A simulation game (SLG) export leader; better cost and efficiency in computers Beijing Ultrapower Software started out in the information and communications technology (ICT) business in 2001 and 8 years later was among the first batch of companies to list on the Shenzhen Stock Exchange Growth Enterprise Market. It ventured into the games industry by acquiring Kemu Software in 2013 and began to run a dual-core business of computers and games. Its new management team implemented strategic adjustments from 2018: rejuvenating its computer business by reducing costs and raising efficiency, and driving rapid growth of the games business to new heights. Ultrapower currently runs four core businesses: (1) games; (2) ICT operational management; (3) Internet of Things and communications; and (4) artificial intelligence and big data. Its 2022 earnings report shows that the net profit increase of 42.54% yoy was driven mainly by games. 壳木游戏：国内出海龙头，2019~2021年3年收入复合增速75% 壳木软件为2022年度中国游戏厂商出海收入榜TOP9，深耕海外市场，擅长SLG+X的融合性玩法。上线近4年的《Age of Origins》和上线7年的《War and Order》为目前公司的两款招牌策略型手游，其中《Age of Origins》的付费用户数量仍呈上升趋势，根据公告披露计算2022上半年月均流水2亿。公司在研SLG产品储备丰富，储备有两款SLG+模拟经营与SLG+战斗卡牌的新品，有望在2023年上线。 Game exports: Chinese market leader Kemu drove a 75% CAGR over 2019-21 In revenue terms, subsidiary Kemu Software was one of China’s top 9 game exporters in 2022. Branded as Camel Games, it is positioned in foreign markets with a competitive edge in SLG+X fusion gameplay. Signature mobile strategy games include Age of Origins, whose pool of paying users continues to grow even into its 4th year, and War and Order, which has run for 7 years. Average monthly turnover in 22H1 was RMB200m. Its rich development pipeline of SLG titles includes 2 new ones based on SLG + operational management and SLG + battle cards, which are slated to launch in 2023E. 计算机业务焕发新生，专注“ICT + 安全”，发展NLP创新业务 计算机业务目前主要的三大主线为ICT运营管理、物联网/通讯、人工智能/大数据。经过内部梳理和调整，公司通过降本增效和出售拖累财务数据的相关业务，业务结构得以优化，以鼎富科技为代表的NLP等创新业务，不断探索发展垂直细分领域，寻找新增长点。 Computer business restructure around ICT + security, and NLP innovations Ultrapower’s computer business has 3 main divisions: ICT operational management; IOT and communications; and AI and big data. After self-assessments and adjustments, the company optimized its business structure by reducing costs and raising efficiencies, and selling off businesses that had weakened its financial metrics. It is exploring and developing vertical markets with growth potential, such as innovative areas like natural language processing (NLP), as represented by Dingfu Technology. 投资建议/Investment Ideas 盈利预测与估值： 预计神州泰岳2022~2024年营业总收入为48.0亿/52.9亿/60.6亿，分别同比增长11.3%/10.2%/14.6%，对应归母净利润为5.5亿/6.9亿/8.2亿，同比增长43.0%/26.3%/18.1% 考虑到公司归母净利润端的持续高速增长，游戏业务稳健发展，以及在NLP领域的布局，给予2023年28xPE，对应潜在收益空间为24.9%，对应目标市值194.4亿，目标价为9.9元，首次覆盖，予以“买入”评级。 Valuation and risks We forecast revenue will arrive at RMB4.8bn/5.29bn/6.06bn in 2022/23/24E, up 11.3/10.2/14.6% yoy, and net profit at RMB550m/690m/820m, up 43.0/26.3/18.1% yoy. Anticipating that Ultrapower will achieve fast net profit growth on the steady development of its games business and its buildout into the NLP industry, we assign a 28x PE in 2023E. This implies revenue growth headroom of 24.9% and a target market cap of RMB19.44bn, with our target price at RMB9.90. We initiate coverage with a BUY rating. 风险提示：宏观经济风险；行业监管风险；产品表现不及预期风险；游戏海外拓展和营销不及预期风险；计算机业务改善不及预期风险；业绩快报数据与实际财报不一致风险。 Risks include: macroeconomic risks; industry regulation risks; weaker product performance than expected; less-than-expected export games market expansion and marketing impact; less-than-expected computer business improvement; and data risks related to the flash report, including any inconsistencies with the final results report. Email: equity@tfisec.com TFI research report website: (pls scan the QR code) 本文件由天风国际资产管理有限公司（证监会中央编号：ASF056）编制，所载资料可能以若干假设为基础，仅供专业投资者作非商业用途及参考之用途，会因经济、市场及其他情况而随时更改而毋须另行通知。任何媒体、网站或个人未经授权不得转载、链接、转贴或以其他方式复制发表本文件及任何内容。已获授权者，在使用本文件或任何内容时必须注明稿件来源于天风国际集团，并承诺遵守相关法例及一切使用的国际惯例，不为任何非法目的或以任何非法方式使用本文件，违者将依法追究相关法律责任。本文件所引用之数据或资料可能得自第三方，天风国际集团将尽可能确认资料来源之可靠性，但天风国际集团并不对第三方所提供数据或资料之准确性负责。且天风国际集团不会就本文件所载任何资料、预测及／或意见的公平性、准确性、时限性、完整性或正确性，以及任何该等预测及／或意见所依据的基准作出任何明文或暗示的保证、陈述、担保或承诺而负责或承担任何法律责任。本文件中如有类似前瞻性陈述之内容，此等内容或陈述不得视为对任何将来表现之保证，且应注意实际情况或发展可能与该等陈述有重大落差。本文件并非及不应被视为邀约、招揽、邀请、建议买卖任何投资产品或投资决策之依据，亦不应被诠释为专业意见。阅览本文件的人士或在作出任何投资决策前，应完全了解其风险以及有关法律、赋税及会计的特点及后果，并根据个人的情况决定投资是否切合个人的投资目标，以及能否承担有关风险，必要时应寻求适当的专业意见。投资涉及风险。敬请投资者注意，证券及投资的价值可升亦可跌，过往的表现不一定可以预示日后的表现。在若干国家，传阅及分派本文件的方式可能受法律或规例所限制。获取本文件的人士须知悉及遵守该等限制。

点此查看微信公众号原文全部内容>>

大部分微信公众号研报本站已有pdf详细完整版：https://www.wkzk.com/report/（可搜索研报标题关键词或机构名称查询原报告）