森鹰窗业: 深耕多年凝聚核心竞争力,政策红利引领广阔前景

（以下内容从天风国际证券《森鹰窗业: 深耕多年凝聚核心竞争力,政策红利引领广阔前景》研报附件原文摘录）
　　Harbin Sayyas Windows (301227 CH) 深耕多年凝聚核心竞争力，政策红利引领广阔前景 Initiating coverage: core business competitiveness and policy support increase growth potential TP:RMB44.00 BUY (Initiation) 投资要点/Investment Thesis 投资要点/Investment Thesis 公司是一家专注于定制化节能铝包木窗研发、设计、生产及销售于一体的高新技术企业，主要产品包括节能铝包木窗、幕墙及阳光房，为国内木门窗制造行业首家上市公司。2015-2021年，公司营收规模稳步增长，由3.73亿元上升至9.57亿元，CAGR为17.00%，其中节能铝包木窗占比超过90%，2022Q1-Q3公司实现营业总收入6.70亿元，同比-2.76%。2015-2021年，公司归母净利润由0.61亿元上升至1.28亿元，CAGR为13.21%，2022Q1-Q3实现归母净利润0.87亿元，同比-8.21%。 Early mover in Chinese aluminum-clad wooden windows manufacturing market About: Sayyas Windows covers R&D, design, production and sales of customized, energy-saving aluminum-clad wooden windows. Its main products are energy-saving aluminum-clad wooden windows, curtain walls and greenhouses. It was the first company to be listed in China’s wooden door and window manufacturing industry. Financials: revenue grew steadily from RMB373m to RMB957m over 2015-21, a 17% CAGR; with net profit tracking a 13.21% CAGR from RMB61m to 128m in the period. 22Q1-3 revenue came to RMB670m, down 2.76% yoy; while net profit arrived at RMB87m, down 8.21% yoy. Energy-saving aluminum-clad wooden windows accounted for over 90% of revenue in 22Q1-3. 行业发展前景广阔，公司市占率有望进一步提升。需求端来看，商品房销售回暖、二手房交易和旧房翻新为门窗行业带来发展机遇，城镇化率提升和居民消费升级扩大定制家居产品消费群体，有利于节能铝包木窗市场发展。同时，在国家建筑节能环保政策等相关产业政策支持下，节能铝包木窗行业景气度或将逐渐升高。供给端来看，门窗市场呈现“大市场、小行业”的市场竞争格局，当前Top10企业的市场占有率不足5%，Top30企业的市场占有率不足10%，龙头企业市占率有望进一步提升。 Broad industry growth prospects ahead; we expect Sayyas to gain market share Demand catalysts: a recovery in commercial housing sales, second-hand housing transactions and renovations of old houses have brought development opportunities in the door and window industry. Rising urbanization and retail consumption upgrades have expanded the customer market for customized household products. This has been conducive to the growth of the energy-saving aluminum-clad wooden window market. Other catalysts include support from policies such as those promoting national building energy conservation and environmental protection. We anticipate the steady growth of the energy-saving aluminum-clad wooden window industry. Supply catalysts: competition is intense in the door and window industry, which is a big market of many small players. The top 10 companies currently have a collective market share of less than 5%, while the top 30 account for less than 10%. We believe industry leaders will see their market share increase. 专注产品研发，坚持品质至上。公司持续加大研发投入，截至2022年9月，公司拥有88项已获授权的专利。公司产品与同行业竞争对手相比在气密性、水密性、保温隔音等方面表现优异，产品质量通过多项认证，广泛用于被动式建筑。 Sayyas Windows: focus on product R&D to drive quality improvements Energy efficiency: with continual investments into R&D, the company holds 88 authorized patents as of September 2022. Its products perform well vs peers in terms of air tightness, water tightness, thermal insulation and sound insulation. They have passed a number of certifications and are widely used in passive building systems. 经销网络覆盖全国，为公司快速发展奠定市场基础。公司主要包括大宗业务和经销商两种销售模式。大宗客户方面，随着房地产行业的竞争加剧，越来越多的房地产商选择公司的节能铝包木窗以提升房地产项目的竞争力。经销渠道方面，2017-2021年，公司经销渠道营业收入由2.10亿元上升至4.11亿元，2019-2021年，公司经销商数量由194家增加至205家，在东北、华北、华东、华中、西北、西南及华南各区域主要城市均建立了经销渠道，目前已形成全国性的销售服务网络布局。 Channels: its dealer network covers the whole of China and provides a base for the company’s rapid development. Sayyas has two main sales channels: bulk business and dealers. For its bulk customers, with competition intensifying in the real estate industry, more and more developers are opting for the company’s energy-saving aluminum-clad wooden windows to boost their own competitiveness in real estate projects. In its dealer channel, revenue increased from RMB210m to RMB411m over 2017-21, while the number of dealers increased from 194 to 205 over 2019-21. Its dealer network covers major cities across northeastern, northern, eastern, central, northwestern, southwestern and southern China. These provide a nationwide sales and service network. 工艺生产链完整，享有产业链协同优势。公司在哈尔滨、南京拥有生产基地，伴随募投项目落地，产能有望逐步释放。通过多年的自主研发积累，并引进国外先进生产经验及技术，成功打通了从原材料加工到节能铝包木窗产品的完整工艺生产链，是行业内少数拥有大规模定制生产能力的企业之一，大幅提升生产效率。 Full production value chain: Sayyas covers the full value chain of the production process and enjoys synergistic supply chain advantages. Its production bases are in Harbin and Nanjing. With the rollout of its fundraising projects, we expect incremental production capacity will be gradually released. Through years of independent R&D and the introduction of advanced foreign production processes and technologies, Sayyas covers the full-range production process value chain from raw material processing to energy-saving aluminum-clad wooden window products. It is one of the few companies in the industry that has mass customization production capacity, which greatly raises its production efficiency. 投资建议/Investment Ideas 盈利预测与估值：公司在节能铝包木窗行业深耕多年，产品研发实力强，拥有完整的工艺生产链保障规模化生产，助推经销和大宗渠道规模进一步扩大，加之公司在被动式超低能耗领域的竞争优势有望进一步释放业绩增长活力，预计公司22-24年收入分别为9.1/11.7/14.6亿，同比-4.9%/+28.7%/+25.1%，22-24年归母净利润为1.2/1.7/2.1亿，同比-2.7%/+33.9%/+26.0%，给予公司23年合理PE 25X，目标价44元，首次覆盖给予“买入”评级。 Valuation and risks Sayyas Windows has carved out a solid presence in the energy-saving aluminum-clad wooden window market after many years. Its product R&D capabilities enable full coverage of the production process value chain with large-scale production. It expanded its distribution and bulk channels. The company’s competitive advantage in products with passive ultra-low energy consumption raises its performance growth prospects. We project RMB910m/1.17bn/1.46bn revenue in 2022/23/24E, changing -4.9%/+28.7%/ +25.1% yoy, and RMB120m/170m/210m net profit, changing -2.7%/+33.9%/ +26.0% yoy. We assign a reasonable PE of 25x in 2023E, with our target price at RMB44. We initiate coverage of the stock with a BUY rating. 风险提示：市场竞争加剧；原材料价格波动；劳动力成本上升；房地产开发投资政策变化；毛利率及经营业绩下滑；应收账款价值较大及坏账风险等；公司流通市值小，股价波动或较大。 Risks include: intensifying competition; raw material price fluctuations; rising labor costs; changes in real estate development and investment policies; decline in gross profit margins and in operating performance; risk of bad debts due to relatively high accounts receivable; and share price volatility risks due to being a small-cap company. 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