晨鸣纸业:造纸产业先驱,静待盈利拐点

（以下内容从天风国际证券《晨鸣纸业:造纸产业先驱,静待盈利拐点》研报附件原文摘录）
　　Shandong Chenming Paper (000488 CH) 造纸产业先驱，静待盈利拐点 Initiating coverage: papermaking pioneer anticipates profit inflection point TP:RMB6.74 BUY (Initiation) 投资要点/Investment Thesis 投资要点/Investment Thesis 晨鸣集团成立于1958年，2021年公司在山东、广东、湖北、江西、吉林等地建有6个生产基地，年浆纸产能达1100多万吨。 2023E could drive an inflection point on falling pulp cost and demand recovery Established in 1958, Chenming Paper has six production bases as of 2021 located in Shandong, Guangdong, Hubei, Jiangxi, Jilin and other places. The integrated pulp and paper maker has a combined production capacity of 11m tpa as of 2021. 营收端：分纸种，2013-2021年公司双胶纸、白卡纸、静电纸营收占机制纸营收比重呈上升趋势，铜版纸、其他机制纸营收占机制纸营收比重呈减少趋势。2021年营收占总较大的纸种为白卡纸（32.95%）和双胶纸（25.07%）。22Q1-3归母净利润2.41亿，同比减少89%。公司预告22年归母净利润1.6-2.0亿，同比减少92.25%~90.32%。主要系毛利率同比减少，疫情导致机制纸销量同比减少；原材料及能源价格大幅上涨。 Product revenue share: based on revenue, offset paper, white cardboard and electrostatic paper as a proportion of machine-made paper revenue were on rising trends during 2013-21, while coated paper and other machine-made paper downtrended. The two largest categories by revenue share are white cardboard (32.95%) and offset paper (25.07%) as of 2021. 毛利端：22Q1-3毛利率和归母净利率分别为14.6%、0.95%，分别同比减少11.13pct、7.52pct。18-19年底造纸行业毛利率减少主要系需求疲弱所致。20年造纸行业毛利率减少主要系疫情所致。21年造纸行业毛利率回升主要系消费回暖所致。 Company profitability: Chenming generated net profit of RMB241m in 22Q1-3, down 89% yoy, and expects 2022E net profit to range RMB160-200m, down 92.25-90.32% yoy, which it attributes to weak gross margins from weak machine-made paper sales due to pandemic factors, while raw material and energy prices rose sharply. 22Q1-3 gross and net margins were 14.6% and 0.95% respectively, down 11.13ppt and 7.52ppt yoy. 造纸行业的景气度有望逐步回升，主要系浆价有望下行；随着国内疫情防控的优化及国家稳增长政策的落实，内需有望改善。 Industry prospects: we believe that prospects for the paper industry will improve gradually in 2023. Looking back, weak demand dragged paper industry gross margins at the year-end in 2018 and 2019; while pandemic factors led to gross margin weakness at the 2020 year-end, which boosted the 2021 year-end gross margin when consumption began to recover. We are expecting pulp prices to fall and Chinese demand to recover this year as the country optimizes pandemic management and rolls out growth policies. 公司是国内首家基本实现木浆自给自足的现代化大型造纸企业。公司坚定实施浆纸一体化战略，目前在寿光、湛江、黄冈等主要生产基地均配有化学浆生产线，截止22年6月底，木浆总产能达430万吨。成本端表现出较强的竞争优势。 First in China to achieve pulp self-sufficiency; on track to improve cost equation Chenming has a strong competitive advantage in cost terms. It was China’s first large-scale paper manufacturer with modern equipment to achieve self-sufficiency in wood pulp supply, which drives its pulp and paper integration strategy. And its major production bases in Shouguang, Zhanjiang and Huanggang are equipped with chemical pulp lines. Its total wood pulp production capacity is 4.3m tpa as of end-June 2022. 造纸行业是典型的资金密集和技术密集型行业，遵循规模经济规律。公司在全国华南、华中、华北、东北主要市场均设有大型生产基地，年浆纸产能达1,100多万吨，合理的生产规模造就了企业的边际成本优势。同时，公司依托规模优势配套建设国际化物流中心及配套铁路专用线、码头，打造了集装运输、保税仓储、中转及场站储存等综合性物流服务平台，公司紧紧围绕浆纸一体化战略整合资源，将生产基地植根于核心目标市场，推动各区域协调联动共同发展。目前，公司以市场为导向，在山东、广东、湖北、江西、吉林等地建有6个生产基地，全部产品实现近距离销售，在提升服务效率的同时大大降低了运输成本，实现企业与用户的“双赢”。 In a capital and technology intensive industry such as papermaking, economies of scale play a big part. Chenming’s large-scale production bases are located in main markets across the country in south, central, north and northeast China. Total pulp and paper production capacity amounts to more than 11m tpa, a decent scale that gives a marginal cost advantage. Chenming is working to increase scale and is building an international logistics center with support railway lines and docks, aiming to create a comprehensive logistics service platform that covers container transportation, bonded warehousing, transshipment and station storage. Market vicinity production bases: lower transportation costs and better services Chenming organized its resources closely around its pulp and paper integration strategy, and builds production bases in core target markets for better coordination and to enhance their inter-development. Its six production bases are located close to sales markets in Shandong, Guangdong, Hubei, Jiangxi, Jilin and other areas, which greatly reduces transportation costs and improves service efficiency. 公司物流成本2013-2019年长期保持稳定，且2021年机制纸业务的运费占营业成本的比重同比减少0.78pct。经测算，2013-2019年公司运输费/销售费用极差为6%，较太阳纸业低8pct，较华泰股份低23pct，较岳阳林纸低3pct。目前公司以市场为导向，全部产品实现近距离销售，在提升服务效率的同时降低了运输成本。 Logistics costs stayed stable over 2013-19 while freight cost as a proportion of operating cost in the machine-made paper business fell 0.78ppt yoy in 2021. Our calculations show that Chenming’s transportation/sales expenses range was 6% in 2013-19, lower than peers Sun Paper by 8ppt, Huatai Paper by 23ppt and Yueyang Forest & Paper by 3ppt. Chenming’s production bases’ proximity to market lifts service efficiency while reducing transportation costs. 投资建议/Investment Ideas 首次覆盖，给予“买入”评级 公司是造纸行业内产品品种最多、最齐全的企业，产品系列涵盖文化纸、白卡纸、铜版纸、复印纸、生活纸、热敏纸等，主要产品市场占有率均位于全国前列。公司坚持以市场需求为导向，通过技术革新和工艺流程优化助力产品精耕细作，不断提高产品附加值，提升品牌价值和效益。我们选取造纸行业太阳纸业、岳阳林纸、山鹰国际作为可比，据可比公司均值，给予晨鸣纸业23年PE为12.65x，对应目标市值200.86亿元，目标价6.74元。 Valuation and risks With its extensive product matrix and the most well-equipped operations, Chenming Paper is well positioned in China’s papermaking industry. Its products include graphic paper, white cardboard, coated paper, copy paper, household paper and thermal paper; where its major products have the largest share of the market. With a business model driven by market demand, and tech and process innovations enabling product upgrades, the company constantly raises product value-add, while boosting brand value and efficiency. Relative to the average valuation of paper peers Sun Paper, Yueyang Forest & Paper and Shanying International, we assign to Chenming a PE of 12.65x for 2023E, with target market cap at RMB20.09bn and our target price at RMB6.74. We initiate coverage with a BUY rating. 风险提示：宏观经济政策风险；环保风险；市场竞争加剧风险；原材料价格波动风险；融资租赁业务风险。 Risks include: macroeconomic policy risks; environmental protection risks; intensifying competition; raw material price volatility; and financial leasing business risks. Email: equity@tfisec.com TFI research report website: (pls scan the QR code) 之准确性负责。且天风国际集团不会就本文件所载任何资料、预测及／或意见的公平性、准确性、时限性、完整性或正确性，以及任何该等预测及／或意见所依据的基准作出任何明文或暗示的保证、陈述、担保或承诺而负责或承担任何法律责任。本文件中如有类似前瞻性陈述之内容，此等内容或陈述不得视为对任何将来表现之保证，且应注意实际情况或发展可能与该等陈述有重大落差。本文件并非及不应被视为邀约、招揽、邀请、建议买卖任何投资产品或投资决策之依据，亦不应被诠释为专业意见。阅览本文件的人士或在作出任何投资决策前，应完全了解其风险以及有关法律、赋税及会计的特点及后果，并根据个人的情况决定投资是否切合个人的投资目标，以及能否承担有关风险，必要时应寻求适当的专业意见。投资涉及风险。敬请投资者注意，证券及投资的价值可升亦可跌，过往的表现不一定可以预示日后的表现。在若干国家，传阅及分派本文件的方式可能受法律或规例所限制。获取本文件的人士须知悉及遵守该等限制。

点此查看微信公众号原文全部内容>>

大部分微信公众号研报本站已有pdf详细完整版：https://www.wkzk.com/report/（可搜索研报标题关键词或机构名称查询原报告）