岳阳林纸:战略合作北京绿色交易所,林业碳汇前景广阔

（以下内容从天风证券《岳阳林纸:战略合作北京绿色交易所,林业碳汇前景广阔》研报附件原文摘录）
　　Yueyang Forest & Paper (600963 CH) 战略合作北京绿色交易所，林业碳汇前景广阔 Strategic tie-up with China’s green exchange expands YY’s carbon-capture forestry business potential BUY (maintain) 投资要点/Investment Thesis 投资要点/Investment Thesis 近日，公司与北京绿色交易所签订战略合作协议，双方将在生态环保、节能降碳、碳资产管理与开发和绿色金融等领域加强合作，共同拓展市场机会，助力公司实现“绿色化、经济化、产业化、金融化”的创新目标，为公司在碳汇市场的布局奠定基础。 CBEEX collaboration sets firm foundation for future development potential Yueyang Forest & Paper (YY) signed a strategic agreement with China Beijing Environment Exchange (CBEEX) recently to cooperate and jointly expand market opportunities in ecological and environmental protection, energy conservation and carbon reduction, carbon asset management and development, as well as green financial products. The cooperation lays the groundwork to develop YY’s carbon capture business and boosts YY’s innovation efforts toward fulfilling its “greenization, economicalization, industrialization and financialization” goals. 合作内容包括：①建设碳资产管理服务平台，开展低碳管理、碳排放管理、碳配额管理交易和CCER管理交易；②研究实现“双碳”目标的有效路径；③双碳课题合作，探索生态产品价值，助力乡村振兴；④构建绿色量化评价与激励机制；⑤依托公司丰富的碳资产，北京绿色交易所通过提供绿色信贷相关标准制定和产品开发等服务，共同打造绿色金融创新产品；⑥宣传推广绿色低碳工作；⑦基于公司已有碳汇储备，在北京绿色交易所的协助下开展不少于100万吨/年的交易量；⑧共同培训相关领域专业人才。 The agreement framework has eight key areas of cooperation: 1.Build a carbon asset management service platform for low carbon, carbon emission, carbon quota and China Certified Emission Reduction (CCER) management transactions. 2.Research effective pathways to achieve China’s dual carbon goals of peak emissions before 2030 and carbon neutrality by 2060. 3.Cooperate on dual-carbon projects, explore the value of ecological products and revitalize the rural market. 4.Construct a green quantitative evaluation and incentive mechanism. 5.Jointly create innovative green financial products by utilizing YY’s rich carbon assets and with CBEEX contributing by establishing green credit standards and product development and other services. 6.Publicize and promote green and low-carbon projects. 7.Achieve a trading volume of at least 1m tons p.a., based on YY’s carbon sink reserves and with assistance from CBEEX. 8.Jointly train professionals in the related fields. “浆纸+生态”双核发展产业格局确立，碳汇业务前景广阔。全资子公司湖南森海碳汇深耕市场，以打造专业化碳汇平台为基点，积极参与新的方法学开发，持续提升影响力和竞争力。截至23年2月16日，已签订碳汇开发合同9份，开发合同面积达3511万亩，公司预计25年底累计签约林业碳汇5000万亩。根据行业专家预测，预计中国碳达峰阶段，碳排放总额将达到104亿吨左右，按规定重点排放单位每年可以使用CCER抵销碳排放配额的清缴，林业碳汇作为明确纳入CCER的主要类型之一，在CCER市场重启后，有望带来新的发展机遇。 Twin drivers: pulp & paper and ecology businesses drive carbon capture potential Land assets: wholly-owned subsidiary Hunan Senhai Carbon Sink has gained traction in the market. In building out a carbon capture platform, it has actively developed new methodologies while boosting its influence and competitiveness. It has nine carbon capture development contracts as of 16 Feb 2023, spanning a total contracted development area of 35.11m mu (2.34m hectares). The company expects to sign on about 50m mu of carbon-sink forest by end-2025E. National imperatives: industry experts project that China’s carbon emissions will peak at about 10.4bn tons. Under the regulations, carbon emitters can pay for CCER credits to offset their China Emissions Allowances (CEAs) deficits every year. Carbon-sink forests are one of the main types listed in the CCER scheme and would bring new development opportunities with the restart of the CCER market. 开发林业碳汇需经验丰富的林业调查和方法学人员，也需与地方政府和地方林业局保持长期友好的协作关系，获得地方企业、政府的认同和信赖。公司是国内造纸行业上市公司中拥有林地面积最大的公司之一，拥有大量优质林地资源，同时拥有林学、园林的专业人才超过200人，林业工作经验丰富，为公司依托现有林地资源发展林业碳汇资产开发提供支持。 People resources: the development of carbon-sink forests require experienced forestry surveyors and methodological personnel, as well as long-term friendly relations with local governments and local forestry bureaus, as well as the ability to gain the recognition and trust of local enterprises and governments. YY is one of a handful of listed companies that own large tracts of forest land in the Chinese paper-making industry. It has a large number of high-quality forest land resources. YY employs more than 200 professionals in forestry and gardening, and their rich experience in forestry work enables the company to develop carbon-capture forest assets based on existing forest land resources. 浆纸业务有望保持稳健增长，成本端优势突出。22年公司业绩实现高增，得益于深入推进精益生产、工艺管控及优化，生产效率进一步提升，浆纸产量同比增长，我们认为伴随公司文化纸产能逐步扩张，浆纸收入有望保持增长。公司集采、长协、自产浆比重超50%，木片、浆板等主要原材料结构有望持续优化，成本优势明显。22年子公司湖南双阳高科化工有限公司高纯双氧水投入生产，新品获市场认可后有望持续对收入、业绩形成正向贡献。 We expect pulp and paper to maintain steady growth on cost advantages YY achieved high growth in 2022 by promoting lean production, process control and optimization, which lifted production efficiency and increased pulp and paper production on a yoy basis. We believe that with the gradual expansion of its graphic paper production capacity, its pulp and paper revenue could maintain its growth trend, driven by centralized procurements, long-term ties with business partners and a self-sufficiency pulp ratio of over 50%. We expect its main raw materials mix to be maintained, with the continuing optimization of wood chips and pulp boards to clear cost advantages. Subsidiary Hunan Shuangyang High-tech Chemical commenced production of high-purity hydrogen peroxide in 2022. After the new product gains recognition on the market, we expect it will continue to make positive contributions to revenue and profitability. 投资建议/Investment Ideas 盈利预测与评级：公司浆纸业务稳健，集采、长协、自产浆比重超50%，成本端优势突出，长期看林业碳汇前景广阔，我们预计公司23-24年业绩分别为8.20、9.43亿元，同比分别+27.3%、+15.0%，对应PE为15x、13x，维持“买入”评级。 Valuation and risks YY has a sturdy pulp and paper business due to its centralized procurements, long-term ties with business partners, and a pulp self-sufficiency ratio of over 50%, which bring cost advantages. We also see bright prospects for its carbon-sink forestry business. We maintain our net profit forecast of RMB820m/943m in 2023/24E, up 27.3/15.0% yoy, corresponding to 15/13x PE. We maintain our BUY rating. 风险提示：本协议为框架协议，尚存不确定性；合作不及预期；CCER审批和交易开放时间、交易细则尚未明确；项目预估量受到各种不可预见因素或自然灾害等不可抗力因素影响；市场竞争加剧风险。 Risks include: the CBEEX agreement is based on a framework and granular uncertainties remain; cooperation progress falls short of expectations; CCER approval and transaction opening times and transaction details are unclear as yet; project estimates affected by force majeure factors, such as unforeseen events or natural disasters; and intensifying competition. Email: equity@tfisec.com TFI research report website: (pls scan the QR code) 之准确性负责。且天风国际集团不会就本文件所载任何资料、预测及／或意见的公平性、准确性、时限性、完整性或正确性，以及任何该等预测及／或意见所依据的基准作出任何明文或暗示的保证、陈述、担保或承诺而负责或承担任何法律责任。本文件中如有类似前瞻性陈述之内容，此等内容或陈述不得视为对任何将来表现之保证，且应注意实际情况或发展可能与该等陈述有重大落差。本文件并非及不应被视为邀约、招揽、邀请、建议买卖任何投资产品或投资决策之依据，亦不应被诠释为专业意见。阅览本文件的人士或在作出任何投资决策前，应完全了解其风险以及有关法律、赋税及会计的特点及后果，并根据个人的情况决定投资是否切合个人的投资目标，以及能否承担有关风险，必要时应寻求适当的专业意见。投资涉及风险。敬请投资者注意，证券及投资的价值可升亦可跌，过往的表现不一定可以预示日后的表现。在若干国家，传阅及分派本文件的方式可能受法律或规例所限制。获取本文件的人士须知悉及遵守该等限制。

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