仙鹤股份:引领特纸发展,需求景气叠加成本改善,有望迎接戴维斯双击

（以下内容从天风证券《仙鹤股份:引领特纸发展,需求景气叠加成本改善,有望迎接戴维斯双击》研报附件原文摘录）
　　Xianhe (603733 CH) 引领特纸发展，需求景气叠加成本改善，有望迎接戴维斯双击 Initiating coverage: specialty paper leader lifts demand and tamps cost in a bid to achieve Davis double-growth TP:RMB38.48 BUY (Initiation) 投资要点/Investment Thesis 投资要点/Investment Thesis 特种纸龙头企业，多元布局驱动可持续发展。公司现有特种纸机生产线51 条，制浆生产线1条，涂布、超压线20多条，生产的纸基功能材料产品种类繁多，主要划分为六大系列60多个品种，包括：1）食品与医疗包装材料系列；2）电气及工业用纸系列；3）烟草行业配套系列；4）日用消费系列；5）商务交流及出版印刷材料系列；6）家居装饰材料系列（合营公司夏王纸业产品）等。2019-2021年，公司分别实现营业收入45.67亿元、48.43亿元和60.17亿元，分别同比+11.45%、+6.04%和+24.24%；公司分别实现归母净利润4.40亿元、7.17亿元和10.17亿元，分别同比+50.45%、+63.02%和+41.76%。 Xianhe’s sustainable model: wide product matrix and multi-market growth About Xianhe: as a specialty paper market leader, Xianhe’s diversified development model drives the company’s sustainable growth. Its 51 specialty paper machine production lines, 1 pulp production line, over 20 coating and overpressure lines. These output a wide variety of paper-based functional materials, comprising six broad categories of over 60 varieties: 1) food and medical packaging materials; 2) electrical and industrial paper; 3) tobacco industry support markets; 4) daily consumption; 5) business communications publishing and printing materials; and 6) home decoration materials (under its JV with KingDecor). Profit profile: the company generated 2019/20/21 revenue of RMB4.57bn/4.84bn/ 6.02bn, up 11.45/6.04/24.24% yoy, and net profit of RMB440m/717m/1.02bn, up 50.45/ 63.02/41.76% yoy. 中国特种纸行业发展较快，头部企业的全球化进程已经开启。2020年中国特种纸规模达到718万吨，2014-2020年CAGR为4.9%，远超全球平均水平。 China’s fast-rising specialty paper market leaders embark on globalization drive Global thinking: the country’s specialty paper industry leaders are starting to etch out a global presence. China had a market size of 7.18mt in 2020, driven by a rapid 4.9% CAGR over 2014-20, far ahead of the global average. 进入壁垒高，行业集中度有望持续提升。特种纸技术壁垒高于大宗纸，公司热敏类材料可根据客户需求定制。公司电解电容器纸基材料具有下游认证严苛的特点，因此进入壁垒较大宗纸更高。随着龙头依托产品附加值提升拓展产品品类，进行区域化扩张，和向上游木浆环节的延伸，产业集中趋势或将明确。 High barriers raise market concentration: to enter the specialty paper industry, newcomers have to surmount technical barriers higher than in bulk paper, so market concentration is likely to increase. Xianhe, for instance, customizes its heat-sensitive products to each customer’s needs, while its electrolytic capacitor paper-based materials fulfill stringent downstream certification requirements. As China’s market leaders leverage value-added products and wider product categories to expand their regional network, while also extending their business upstream to wood pulp, we believe a rising industry concentration trend will emerge. 柔性化生产能力优异，盈利水平稳步增强。公司具有出色的柔性化生产能力，单条生产线至少能够适应 2-3 种纸基功能材料的稳定生产，并支持不同产品中的稳定切换。2018年-2021年，公司盈利水平持续改善，净资产收益率逐年提升，最新2022三季度年化ROE达11.5%。 Elastic production capacities: Xianhe’s output flexibility has led to its profitability uptrend. Under its flexible production capacity model, production lines are capable of manufacturing different product types and one line can switch smoothly to output 2-3 types of paper-based functional materials. This flexibility has drove the company’s profitability uptrend over 2018-21, while return on net assets increased year by year and the latest available results show 22Q3 ROE annualized at 11.5%. 投资建议/Investment Ideas 首次覆盖，给予“买入”评级 我们预计2022-2024年公司营业收入分别为7600.73、9204.43和11239.83百万元，同比+26.32%、+21.10%和+22.11%；我们预计2022-2024年公司归母净利润分别为765.10、1263.83和1654.01百万元，分别同比-24.74%、+65.18%和+30.87%。 我们选取造纸行业五洲特纸、太阳纸业、晨鸣纸业作为可比，根据wind一致预期，三家企业PEG分别为0.17、0.84、0.27，平均PEG为0.43。给予23年仙鹤股份平均PEG，对应PE为21.50x，对应目标价为38.48元。 Valuation and risks We forecast Xianhe will generate revenue of RMB7.60/9.20/11.24bn, up 26.32/21.10/ 22.11% yoy, and net profit of RMB765.10m/1.26bn/1.65bn, changing -24.74/+65.18/ +30.87% yoy, in 2022/23/24E. To value the company, we select as its paper-making peers, Wuzhou Special Paper/ Shandong Sunpaper/ Chenming Paper. Factoring in their Wind consensus PEGs of 0.17/0.84/0.27, averaging a PEG of 0.43, we assign to Xianhe the average PEG of 0.43 in 2023E, corresponding to PE of 21.50x and our target price of RMB38.48. We initiate coverage of the stock with a BUY rating. 风险提示：主要原材料价格波动的风险，烟草行业用纸市场需求下降的风险，公司利润水平受夏王纸业盈利能力影响的风险 Risks include: core raw materials’ price fluctuations; declining demand for paper in the tobacco industry; and the impact of KingDecor’s profitability on Xianhe’s profit levels. Email: equity@tfisec.com TFI research report website: (pls scan the QR code) 之准确性负责。且天风国际集团不会就本文件所载任何资料、预测及／或意见的公平性、准确性、时限性、完整性或正确性，以及任何该等预测及／或意见所依据的基准作出任何明文或暗示的保证、陈述、担保或承诺而负责或承担任何法律责任。本文件中如有类似前瞻性陈述之内容，此等内容或陈述不得视为对任何将来表现之保证，且应注意实际情况或发展可能与该等陈述有重大落差。本文件并非及不应被视为邀约、招揽、邀请、建议买卖任何投资产品或投资决策之依据，亦不应被诠释为专业意见。阅览本文件的人士或在作出任何投资决策前，应完全了解其风险以及有关法律、赋税及会计的特点及后果，并根据个人的情况决定投资是否切合个人的投资目标，以及能否承担有关风险，必要时应寻求适当的专业意见。投资涉及风险。敬请投资者注意，证券及投资的价值可升亦可跌，过往的表现不一定可以预示日后的表现。在若干国家，传阅及分派本文件的方式可能受法律或规例所限制。获取本文件的人士须知悉及遵守该等限制。

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