佛山照明:照明龙头横向纵向拓展迎来新机遇
（以下内容从天风证券《佛山照明:照明龙头横向纵向拓展迎来新机遇》研报附件原文摘录）
Foshan Electrical and Lighting (000541 CH) 照明龙头横向纵向拓展迎来新机遇 Initiating coverage: lighting leader’s horizontal and vertical expansion illuminates new growth points TP:RMB7.10 BUY (Initiation) 投资要点/Investment Thesis 投资要点/Investment Thesis 深耕照明领域六十载，横向纵向实现业务延伸 公司作为通用照明领域老牌企业，依托广东国资委背景，近年来在横向纵向两方面实现业务延伸：横向方面，公司加大新兴照明领域投入，同时通过收购南宁燎旺切入车灯高景气赛道，后续有望贡献新增长极；纵向方面，公司收购上游LED封装企业国星光电，后续有望在成本及研发端深化一体化布局。 State-backed 60-year Chinese lighting player broadens business streams via M&A Backed by the Guangdong chapter of China’s State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission, established lighting player Foshan Electrical and Lighting has been able to expand its business horizontally and vertically in recent years. ·Horizontally: it stepped up investments into emerging lighting application markets and entered the potentially lucrative automotive market by acquiring Nanning Liaowang. We expect this business to add new growth momentum for the company. ·Vertically: Foshan acquired upstream LED packaging company Nationstar Optoelectronics to integrate cost and R&D synergies. 通用照明：传统照明龙头地位稳固，新兴照明贡献新增长极 传统照明方面，据CSA Research，21年我国家用照明市场规模约3079亿元，总产值高达6552亿元，近年来规模企稳，公司作为LED照明下游应用领域龙头企业，伴随行业集中度逐步提升有望实现较好增长；而新兴照明方面，公司布局智慧照明、海洋照明、植物照明、5G智慧灯杆等领域，20年总规模达到500亿元，后续有望为公司通用照明业务贡献新增量。 Stable leading position in traditional lighting; new applications boost momentum Traditional market: China’s lighting market market size has stabilized in recent years. It generated about RMB307.9bn in 2021, with total output of up to RMB655.2bn, according to CSA Research. As Foshan commands the LED downstream application markets, we expect the company’s growth profile to improve along with rising industry concentration. Emerging markets: Foshan’s smart lighting exposure, which covers marine, planting, 5G smart lamps and other applications, amounted to RMB50bn in 2020. We expect new markets will make incremental contributions to its lighting business. 车灯业务：收购南宁燎旺，入局高景气赛道 在光源升级、车灯智能化、贯穿式尾灯渗透等趋势下，车灯行业有望迎来量价齐升，市场前景广阔，我们预计伴随着LED光源渗透提升、激光大灯商业化进一步拓展，在光源升级方面车灯市场21-25年CAGR可达13%，而伴随着ADB/AFS等智能化功能的普及、以及DLP大灯等前瞻技术逐渐得以应用，车灯智能化方面21-25年CAGR可达16%。而随着新能源车的普及，车灯领域供应链格局有望重塑。公司通过收购南宁燎旺切入车灯赛道，后续有望在成本、研发等方面产生协同效应，享受行业增长红利。 Entry to potentially lucrative automotive business by buying Nanning Liaowang New technologies: market trends such as light source upgrades, smart lamps and the rising penetration of bar rear lights have brightened the automotive lighting outlook, bringing volume and price lifts. We see a market with immense potential. We expect the light source upgrade market to track a CAGR of up to 13% over 2021-25E, as LED source lights penetration rises and laser headlights gain traction. At the same time, demand for smart features is growing, driven by advanced tecnologies such as adaptive driving beam (ADB), adaptive front-lighting systems (AFS) and digital light processing (DLP) headlights. We project the smart headlights market to track a 16% CAGR in 2021-25E. Nanning Liaowang acquisition: the inexorable rise of NEVs has reshaped the supply chain market for automotive lights, in our view. Acquiring Nanning Liaowang has allowed Foshan to leapfrog its entry to the auto lamp business. We expect to see synergistic effects on cost and R&D as the company rides the wave of industry growth. 中上游：并表国星光电，深化产业链一体化布局 公司收购国星光电，整合资源，进一步加深产业链一体化进程，在上游芯片、中游封装、下游照明均有布局，后续有望在成本端体现更多优势。同时，国星光电作为国内LED封装领域龙头企业，前瞻性布局小间距LED及Mini/Micro LED等新兴领域，后续有望贡献新增。 Mid-to-upstream: NationStar synergy adds cost benefits; supply chain integration The acquisition of NationStar Optoelectronics would integrate resources, including supply chain resources. We expect it will benefit from cost advantages as it builds out its upstream chips, midstream packaging and downstream lighting markets. Chinese LED packaging leader NationStar appears to be a good match for its forward-looking buildout in small-pitch, mini and micro LEDs, and other emerging applications, which bodes well for its future contributions. 投资建议/Investment Ideas 投资建议：公司是通用照明领域龙头企业，近年来积极布局新兴照明领域，后续有望在行业平稳增长、集中度逐渐提升的过程中有望实现较好发展。同时公司切入车灯高景气赛道，后续有望在国产化趋势下，逐步提升客单价实现较快增长。利润端长期来看收购国星光电有望深化产业链一体化进程，逐步提升利润水平，而短期来看则有望受益于成本下行以及汇兑影响贡献业绩弹性。我们预计公司22-24年归母净利润分别为2.56、3.86、4.80亿元，给予23年25xPE，对应目标价7.1元。首次覆盖给予“买入”评级。 Valuation and risks General lighting market leader Foshan’s inroads into emerging lighting applications have raised its growth prospects. We expect it will maintain a stable growth trajectory as industry concentration gradually rises. And as the lucrative automotive lights market enters a Chinese substitution cycle, Foshan stands to benefit from rising customer unit prices and faster growth. Over the long term, we believe its NationStar acquisition will enforce the supply chain integration process and improve profitability. In the short term, it will likely benefit from falling cost as the FX impact adds profit elasticity. We expect net profit to amount to RMB256m/386m/480m in 2022/23/24E, corresponding to a 25x PE in 2023E and our price target of RMB7.1. We initiate coverage with a BUY rating. 风险提示：新业务进展不及预期；新技术研发进展不及预期；产业链一体化进展不及预期；原材料价格波动风险；汇率波动风险；应收账款回收风险 Risks include: new businesses progressing worse than expected; slower-than-expected technology R&D progress; worse-than-expected supply chain integration progress; raw material price fluctuations; FX volatility; and risks related to accounts receivable recoveries. Email: equity@tfisec.com TFI research report website: (pls scan the QR code) 本文件由天风国际证券集团有限公司, 天风国际证券与期货有限公司（证监会中央编号：BAV573）及天风国际资产管理有限公司（证监会中央编号：ASF056）（合称“天风国际集团”）编制，所载资料可能以若干假设为基础，仅供专业投资者作非商业用途及参考之用途，会因经济、市场及其他情况而随时更改而毋须另行通知。任何媒体、网站或个人未经授权不得转载、链接、转贴或以其他方式复制发表本文件及任何内容。已获授权者，在使用本文件或任何内容时必须注明稿件来源于天风国际集团，并承诺遵守相关法例及一切使用的国际惯例，不为任何非法目的或以任何非法方式使用本文件，违者将依法追究相关法律责任。本文件所引用之数据或资料可能得自第三方，天风国际集团将尽可能确认资料来源之可靠性，但天风国际集团并不对第三方所提供数据或资料之准确性负责。且天风国际集团不会就本文件所载任何资料、预测及／或意见的公平性、准确性、时限性、完整性或正确性，以及任何该等预测及／或意见所依据的基准作出任何明文或暗示的保证、陈述、担保或承诺而负责或承担任何法律责任。本文件中如有类似前瞻性陈述之内容，此等内容或陈述不得视为对任何将来表现之保证，且应注意实际情况或发展可能与该等陈述有重大落差。本文件并非及不应被视为邀约、招揽、邀请、建议买卖任何投资产品或投资决策之依据，亦不应被诠释为专业意见。阅览本文件的人士或在作出任何投资决策前，应完全了解其风险以及有关法律、赋税及会计的特点及后果，并根据个人的情况决定投资是否切合个人的投资目标，以及能否承担有关风险，必要时应寻求适当的专业意见。投资涉及风险。敬请投资者注意，证券及投资的价值可升亦可跌，过往的表现不一定可以预示日后的表现。在若干国家，传阅及分派本文件的方式可能受法律或规例所限制。获取本文件的人士须知悉及遵守该等限制。
Foshan Electrical and Lighting (000541 CH) 照明龙头横向纵向拓展迎来新机遇 Initiating coverage: lighting leader’s horizontal and vertical expansion illuminates new growth points TP:RMB7.10 BUY (Initiation) 投资要点/Investment Thesis 投资要点/Investment Thesis 深耕照明领域六十载，横向纵向实现业务延伸 公司作为通用照明领域老牌企业，依托广东国资委背景，近年来在横向纵向两方面实现业务延伸：横向方面，公司加大新兴照明领域投入，同时通过收购南宁燎旺切入车灯高景气赛道，后续有望贡献新增长极；纵向方面，公司收购上游LED封装企业国星光电，后续有望在成本及研发端深化一体化布局。 State-backed 60-year Chinese lighting player broadens business streams via M&A Backed by the Guangdong chapter of China’s State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission, established lighting player Foshan Electrical and Lighting has been able to expand its business horizontally and vertically in recent years. ·Horizontally: it stepped up investments into emerging lighting application markets and entered the potentially lucrative automotive market by acquiring Nanning Liaowang. We expect this business to add new growth momentum for the company. ·Vertically: Foshan acquired upstream LED packaging company Nationstar Optoelectronics to integrate cost and R&D synergies. 通用照明：传统照明龙头地位稳固，新兴照明贡献新增长极 传统照明方面，据CSA Research，21年我国家用照明市场规模约3079亿元，总产值高达6552亿元，近年来规模企稳，公司作为LED照明下游应用领域龙头企业，伴随行业集中度逐步提升有望实现较好增长；而新兴照明方面，公司布局智慧照明、海洋照明、植物照明、5G智慧灯杆等领域，20年总规模达到500亿元，后续有望为公司通用照明业务贡献新增量。 Stable leading position in traditional lighting; new applications boost momentum Traditional market: China’s lighting market market size has stabilized in recent years. It generated about RMB307.9bn in 2021, with total output of up to RMB655.2bn, according to CSA Research. As Foshan commands the LED downstream application markets, we expect the company’s growth profile to improve along with rising industry concentration. Emerging markets: Foshan’s smart lighting exposure, which covers marine, planting, 5G smart lamps and other applications, amounted to RMB50bn in 2020. We expect new markets will make incremental contributions to its lighting business. 车灯业务：收购南宁燎旺，入局高景气赛道 在光源升级、车灯智能化、贯穿式尾灯渗透等趋势下，车灯行业有望迎来量价齐升，市场前景广阔，我们预计伴随着LED光源渗透提升、激光大灯商业化进一步拓展，在光源升级方面车灯市场21-25年CAGR可达13%，而伴随着ADB/AFS等智能化功能的普及、以及DLP大灯等前瞻技术逐渐得以应用，车灯智能化方面21-25年CAGR可达16%。而随着新能源车的普及，车灯领域供应链格局有望重塑。公司通过收购南宁燎旺切入车灯赛道，后续有望在成本、研发等方面产生协同效应，享受行业增长红利。 Entry to potentially lucrative automotive business by buying Nanning Liaowang New technologies: market trends such as light source upgrades, smart lamps and the rising penetration of bar rear lights have brightened the automotive lighting outlook, bringing volume and price lifts. We see a market with immense potential. We expect the light source upgrade market to track a CAGR of up to 13% over 2021-25E, as LED source lights penetration rises and laser headlights gain traction. At the same time, demand for smart features is growing, driven by advanced tecnologies such as adaptive driving beam (ADB), adaptive front-lighting systems (AFS) and digital light processing (DLP) headlights. We project the smart headlights market to track a 16% CAGR in 2021-25E. Nanning Liaowang acquisition: the inexorable rise of NEVs has reshaped the supply chain market for automotive lights, in our view. Acquiring Nanning Liaowang has allowed Foshan to leapfrog its entry to the auto lamp business. We expect to see synergistic effects on cost and R&D as the company rides the wave of industry growth. 中上游：并表国星光电，深化产业链一体化布局 公司收购国星光电，整合资源，进一步加深产业链一体化进程，在上游芯片、中游封装、下游照明均有布局，后续有望在成本端体现更多优势。同时，国星光电作为国内LED封装领域龙头企业，前瞻性布局小间距LED及Mini/Micro LED等新兴领域，后续有望贡献新增。 Mid-to-upstream: NationStar synergy adds cost benefits; supply chain integration The acquisition of NationStar Optoelectronics would integrate resources, including supply chain resources. We expect it will benefit from cost advantages as it builds out its upstream chips, midstream packaging and downstream lighting markets. Chinese LED packaging leader NationStar appears to be a good match for its forward-looking buildout in small-pitch, mini and micro LEDs, and other emerging applications, which bodes well for its future contributions. 投资建议/Investment Ideas 投资建议：公司是通用照明领域龙头企业，近年来积极布局新兴照明领域，后续有望在行业平稳增长、集中度逐渐提升的过程中有望实现较好发展。同时公司切入车灯高景气赛道，后续有望在国产化趋势下，逐步提升客单价实现较快增长。利润端长期来看收购国星光电有望深化产业链一体化进程，逐步提升利润水平，而短期来看则有望受益于成本下行以及汇兑影响贡献业绩弹性。我们预计公司22-24年归母净利润分别为2.56、3.86、4.80亿元，给予23年25xPE，对应目标价7.1元。首次覆盖给予“买入”评级。 Valuation and risks General lighting market leader Foshan’s inroads into emerging lighting applications have raised its growth prospects. We expect it will maintain a stable growth trajectory as industry concentration gradually rises. And as the lucrative automotive lights market enters a Chinese substitution cycle, Foshan stands to benefit from rising customer unit prices and faster growth. Over the long term, we believe its NationStar acquisition will enforce the supply chain integration process and improve profitability. In the short term, it will likely benefit from falling cost as the FX impact adds profit elasticity. We expect net profit to amount to RMB256m/386m/480m in 2022/23/24E, corresponding to a 25x PE in 2023E and our price target of RMB7.1. We initiate coverage with a BUY rating. 风险提示：新业务进展不及预期；新技术研发进展不及预期；产业链一体化进展不及预期；原材料价格波动风险；汇率波动风险；应收账款回收风险 Risks include: new businesses progressing worse than expected; slower-than-expected technology R&D progress; worse-than-expected supply chain integration progress; raw material price fluctuations; FX volatility; and risks related to accounts receivable recoveries. Email: equity@tfisec.com TFI research report website: (pls scan the QR code) 本文件由天风国际证券集团有限公司, 天风国际证券与期货有限公司（证监会中央编号：BAV573）及天风国际资产管理有限公司（证监会中央编号：ASF056）（合称“天风国际集团”）编制，所载资料可能以若干假设为基础，仅供专业投资者作非商业用途及参考之用途，会因经济、市场及其他情况而随时更改而毋须另行通知。任何媒体、网站或个人未经授权不得转载、链接、转贴或以其他方式复制发表本文件及任何内容。已获授权者，在使用本文件或任何内容时必须注明稿件来源于天风国际集团，并承诺遵守相关法例及一切使用的国际惯例，不为任何非法目的或以任何非法方式使用本文件，违者将依法追究相关法律责任。本文件所引用之数据或资料可能得自第三方，天风国际集团将尽可能确认资料来源之可靠性，但天风国际集团并不对第三方所提供数据或资料之准确性负责。且天风国际集团不会就本文件所载任何资料、预测及／或意见的公平性、准确性、时限性、完整性或正确性，以及任何该等预测及／或意见所依据的基准作出任何明文或暗示的保证、陈述、担保或承诺而负责或承担任何法律责任。本文件中如有类似前瞻性陈述之内容，此等内容或陈述不得视为对任何将来表现之保证，且应注意实际情况或发展可能与该等陈述有重大落差。本文件并非及不应被视为邀约、招揽、邀请、建议买卖任何投资产品或投资决策之依据，亦不应被诠释为专业意见。阅览本文件的人士或在作出任何投资决策前，应完全了解其风险以及有关法律、赋税及会计的特点及后果，并根据个人的情况决定投资是否切合个人的投资目标，以及能否承担有关风险，必要时应寻求适当的专业意见。投资涉及风险。敬请投资者注意，证券及投资的价值可升亦可跌，过往的表现不一定可以预示日后的表现。在若干国家，传阅及分派本文件的方式可能受法律或规例所限制。获取本文件的人士须知悉及遵守该等限制。
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