王力安防:经营质量稳步提升,看好23年客户结构优化+智能工厂产能逐步释放

（以下内容从天风证券《王力安防:经营质量稳步提升,看好23年客户结构优化+智能工厂产能逐步释放》研报附件原文摘录）
　　Wangli Security & Surveillance Product (605268 CH) 经营质量稳步提升，看好23年客户结构优化+智能工厂产能逐步释放 Preview: 22Q4E decline narrows; brighter 2023E on a better customer mix and smart factory capacity rollouts ACCUMULATE (from BUY) 投资要点/Investment Thesis 投资要点/Investment Thesis 公司发布业绩预告，22年预计归母净利润-0.25~-0.37亿，扣非归母净利润-0.45~-0.58亿，主要系针对回款、票据违约等情况计提坏账准备。此外，公司加强风险管控，对工程客户合作更加谨慎，客户结构调整，利润受此制约；疫情影响订单发货、运输、安装进度，造成业绩下滑；智能设备投产、广告宣传与研发力度加大，业务成本增加。 22Q4E revenue decline narrows; 2023E incremental orders from new customers Wangli Security and Surveillance Products (aka Wonly) released a preliminary earnings report indicating a RMB25-37m net loss in 2022E; excluding nonrecurring items, it had a RMB45m-58m net loss. The company cites these major drag factors: ·provisions for credit losses in accounts receivable and defaults; ·initiatives to strengthen risk controls and a customer mix restructure under which it dialed down on engineering jobs; ·pandemic controls hampered order shipments, transportation and installation progress; and ·higher business costs due to smart equipment production, and stepping up advertising and R&D efforts. 收入端：Q4收入同比降幅收窄，23年新客户有望带来增量订单。 根据我们测算，22年公司收入23亿，其中Q4收入约7.4亿，同比下降11.9%，降幅较Q3同比-24.43%显著收窄。22年公司主动调整客户结构，对部分工程客户合作更加谨慎，导致收入端短期承压，依旧持续与各大地产商保持合作关系，积极开拓优质工程订单，新增客户以保利、万科等优质国央企为主，有望于23年逐步贡献批量订单。 Our takeaways: by our numbers, revenue arrived at RMB2.3bn in 2022E, with Q4E at about RMB740m, down 11.9% yoy; this was much better than the 24.43% yoy slide in Q3. Wangli took the opportunity of slower business last year to tweak its profit profile – it restructured its customer mix by dialing down on some engineering customers. To offset the short-term revenue pressure this created, it leveraged ties with major real estate developers to achieve better-quality engineering orders. The new customers include quality centrally managed companies like Poly and Vanke, and we expect they will contribute incremental bulk orders through 2023E. 利润端：智能工厂提升生产效率，规模效应逐步释放。 公司拥有永康、武义、四川三大产业园，是国内生产规模最大的安全门企业之一，生产规模同行业内具有明显优势。公司建立智能化生产线和物流系统，提高效率，降低运营成本，长恬智能制造基地荣获行业首批“未来工厂”称号，预期智能基地正式投产后，用工将缩减80%，运营成本降低约15%，产品升级周期缩短约30%。我们认为，后续伴随产量提升，单位折摊或将大幅减少，从而提升盈利能力，规模优势有望凸显。在维持盈利基本稳定的前提下，我们认为公司或可通过以价换量的方式，快速抢占市场份额。 Profit catalysts: smart factory to lift production efficiency as business scales up Wangli’s clear competitive advantage is its business scale and single-industry focus, as one of China’s largest security door companies with three industrial parks in Yongkang, Wuyi and Sichuan. The company set up a smart production line and logistics system to raise efficiency and curb operating costs. The smart manufacturing base in Changtian was one of the first in the industry to earn the “Factory of the Future” award. When it officially commences operation, we expect it will reduce labor count by 80%, operating cost by about 15% and shorten the product upgrade cycle by about 30%. As incremental production capacities roll out and scale economies kick in, we expect unit discounts will narrow and profitability will widen. As its earnings trend firms and stabilizes, we believe it will the rationalize the price and volume equation to gain market share. 投资建议/Investment Ideas 盈利预测：我们看好公司客户结构优化效果显现，优质战略客户放量，叠加地产政策催化，业务结构逐步改善，考虑到计提影响，我们调整盈利预测，预计公司22-24年归母净利分别为-0.29/2.54/3.36亿（前值为1.71/2.67/3.50亿），23-24年对应PE分别为18X/13X。 Valuation and risks Wangli’s prospects are looking up this year. We expect its well-timed customer mix restructure and production releases to improve scale and profitability in 2023E. Demand catalysts include strategic new customers adding incremental volume through the year, while the real estate policy takes effect. Taking into account the provisions for accruals, we cut our 2022E earnings forecast to a net loss of RMB29m (previously RMB171 net profit) while nudging down 2023/24E net profit to RMB254m/336m (previously RMB267m/350m); PE corresponds to 18/13x in 2023/24E. We lower our rating to ACCUMULATE (from BUY). 风险提示：业绩预告仅为初步测算结果，具体以22年报为准；行业和市场竞争加剧；房地产行业波动；产能释放不及预期；原材料价格波动等。 Risks include: intensifying competition; real estate industry volatility; lower-than-expected incremental production capacity releases; and raw material price fluctuations. Note: our forecast is based on Wangli’s preliminary results; please refer to the company’s final 2022 earnings report for actual numbers. Email: equity@tfisec.com TFI research report website: (pls scan the QR code) 之准确性负责。且天风国际集团不会就本文件所载任何资料、预测及／或意见的公平性、准确性、时限性、完整性或正确性，以及任何该等预测及／或意见所依据的基准作出任何明文或暗示的保证、陈述、担保或承诺而负责或承担任何法律责任。本文件中如有类似前瞻性陈述之内容，此等内容或陈述不得视为对任何将来表现之保证，且应注意实际情况或发展可能与该等陈述有重大落差。本文件并非及不应被视为邀约、招揽、邀请、建议买卖任何投资产品或投资决策之依据，亦不应被诠释为专业意见。阅览本文件的人士或在作出任何投资决策前，应完全了解其风险以及有关法律、赋税及会计的特点及后果，并根据个人的情况决定投资是否切合个人的投资目标，以及能否承担有关风险，必要时应寻求适当的专业意见。投资涉及风险。敬请投资者注意，证券及投资的价值可升亦可跌，过往的表现不一定可以预示日后的表现。在若干国家，传阅及分派本文件的方式可能受法律或规例所限制。获取本文件的人士须知悉及遵守该等限制。

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