正帆科技: 2022年度净利润同比大幅预增,在手订单充沛指引23年持续高增长动能

（以下内容从天风证券《正帆科技: 2022年度净利润同比大幅预增,在手订单充沛指引23年持续高增长动能》研报附件原文摘录）
　　Shanghai GenTech (688596 CH) 2022年度净利润同比大幅预增，在手订单充沛指引23年持续高增长动能 GenTech guides 2022E net profit growth spike; strong orders in hand aid high-growth momentum in 2023E TP：RMB57.00 BUY (maintain) 投资要点/Investment Thesis 投资要点/Investment Thesis 事件：公司发布2022年度业绩预增公告。公司预计2022年度实现归属于母公司所有者的净利润为2.53-2.7亿元，同比增长50%-60%，实现归属于母公司所有者扣除非经常性损益的净利润为2.07-2.2亿元，同比增长50%-60%。预计22年第四季度实现归母净利润1.16-1.33亿元，同比增长90.02%-117.91%，实现扣非归母净利润0.79-0.93亿元，同比增长75.48%-105.35%。 Key financials: net profit spike in 2022E; Q4E revenue and profit also shot up Guidance: GenTech released 2022E guidance with net profit at RMB253-270m, implying 50-60% yoy growth, and ex-nonrecurring net profit at RMB207-220m, up 50-60% yoy. It estimates 4Q22E net profit at RMB116-133m, up 90.02-117.91% yoy; or RMB79-93m, up 75.48-105.35% yoy, excluding nonrecurring items. 点评：2022年净利润预增亮眼，22Q4业绩利润同比大幅增长，看好公司紧抓材料+零部件国产替代双机遇扬帆起航，业绩持续高速增长。公司主营业务业绩变化主因公司2022年度下游行业市场规模扩大、公司市场竞争力不断提升等因素造成销售收入和利润均有较大幅度增长。非经营性损益变化主因2022年度金融资产公允价值变动收益和政府补助收益较上期均有所增长。看好公司Gas Box新厂投产及募投项目落地后，订单揽获能力不断加强，业绩持续高增。 Takeaways: to drive earnings growth, we believe the company tapped into Chinese substitution opportunities in the materials and parts markets in 2022. We attribute variations in its core business numbers to upscaling of its downstream business, which sharpened its competitive edge and brought in much higher sales revenue and profit. Variations in non-operating profit were mainly due to higher gains yoy from fair value changes of financial assets as well as from government subsidies. We believe that with the implementation of its fund-raising projects and the rollout of the new gas box plant, GenTech’s orders will continue to grow and help sustain its high-growth trajectory. 1.深耕工艺介质供应系统的研发设计，以综合立体业务模式确立市场地位 正帆科技是国内工艺介质供应系统先行者，装备+材料+服务三位一体打造核心竞争力。公司于工艺介质供应系统中深耕十数载，与国内工艺介质供应系统行业共同发展，并参与制定了一系列国家工艺标准和行业工艺标准。多年深耕自主研发，形成六大核心技术。公司经过长期的研发与投入形成了六大核心技术，分别为介质供应系统微污染控制、流体系统设计与模拟仿真、生命安全保障与工艺监控、高纯材料合成与分离提纯、材料成分分析与痕量检测、关键工艺材料再生与循环。 (1) Multi-factor model: GenTech’s R&D and design edge in process media supply systems helps entrench its market leadership Pioneer: Shanghai GenTech is a Chinese pioneer of process media supply systems and its key competitive areas are equipment, materials and services. Having built process media supply systems for more than 10 years, the company has grown alongside the rise of the industry and helped formulate national and industry process standards. 6 proprietary technologies: R&D efforts over the years have birthed six core proprietary technologies: (1) micro-pollution control of media supply systems; (2) fluid system design and simulation; (3) life safety and process monitoring; (4) high-purity material synthesis, separation and purification; (5) material composition analysis and trace detection; and (6) the regeneration and recycling of key process materials. 2.全链条产品服务+技术水平=高客户粘性：工艺标准水平高可以满足如集成电路等高价值市场的纯度、控制、安全要求，高技术能力牢牢绑定市场头部客户。以高客户粘性占领高壁垒市场板块，做高价值市场的“守门员”。公司工艺标准水平高，可以满足如集成电路等高价值市场的纯度、控制、安全要求。例如在纯度控制方面，公司设备可以较好地满足集成电路客户的工艺标准，远超过国家标准。客户方面，公司在泛半导体、光纤通信、医药制造等领域积累了强大的客户资源，包括中芯国际、长江存储、京东方、三安光电、亨通光电、恒瑞医药、SK海力士、德州仪器等国内外优质客户。公司定增项目涉及的高纯氢气是泛半导体工艺中关键原材料，可配套京东方、惠科集团、三安光电等长期合作客户对电子气体需求，进一步深度绑定市场头部客户提高客户粘性。 (2) Full value chain products and services: tech capability boosts customer stickiness; purity, control and safety standards satisfy stringent markets like ICs Stringent markets: as a gatekeeper of high-value markets, GenTech is positioned in industries with high tech barriers where its capabilities have formed high customer stickiness. Its high process standards fulfill purity, control and safety requirements in high-value markets such as integrated circuits (ICs). For example, its purity control equipment not only meet the process standards of IC customers but they surpass national standards by far. Customer resources: its customer base covers markets like pan-semiconductors, optical fiber communications, pharmaceutical manufacturing and others. They include domestic and global market leaders like SMIC, Yangtze River Storage, BOE, Sanan Optoelectronics, Hengtong Optic-Electric, Hengrui Pharmaceutical, SK Hynix and Texas Instruments. Its private placement projects include the capacity buildout of high-purity hydrogen, a key raw material in the pan-semiconductor process. This would help fulfill electronic gas demand from long-time customers such as BOE, Huike Group and Sanan Optoelectronics. It also attracts other market leaders and enhances customer stickiness. 3.下游应用市场多点开花，在手订单充沛指引23年持续高增长动能。订单方面，截至22年第三季度末，公司在手订单为31.09亿元，同比+63.7%。其中IC行业的在手订单为14.81亿元，同比+97.8%；光伏行业在手订单为7.21亿元，同比+80.4%；其他行业在手订单为9.07亿元。公司在手订单和新签订单充沛，公司预计2023年起气体业务稳步上升。光伏领域，硅料价格已于2022年11月达到约历史顶部并开始回落，或伴随硅料产能释放进一步下降，制约光伏装机量的瓶颈因素得到缓解，产业链成本有望进一步下降，推动公司光伏板块业务快速发展。生物医药领域公司主要涉及制药用水系统、配液系统和生物工艺设备业务，后续或加码主工艺设备，22年前三季度生物医药业务增速超过公司整体收入增速，有助开启稳定的第二增长曲线。 (3) Downstream application markets: multiple growth points and abundant orders in hand driving a sustainable high-growth momentum in 2023E Full order book: as of end-22Q3, orders in hand amounted to RMB3.11bn, up 63.7% yoy. A breakdown has IC orders at RMB1.48bn, up 97.8% yoy, photovoltaic (PV) orders at RMB721m, up 80.4% yoy, and orders from other industries at RMB907m. Considering the strong orders in hand and new orders, the company expects the gas business to grow steadily from 2023E. Photovoltaics: polysilicon prices reached a historical high in November 2022 and have started to fall since then, while polysilicon production capacity releases could decline further. The bottleneck in PV installed capacities is being alleviated and supply chain costs could decline further, which would boost the growth of GenTech’s PV business. Biopharmaceuticals: this business mainly covers pharmaceutical water systems, liquid distribution systems and bioprocessing equipment, as well as follow-up or additional investment in main process equipment. GenTech’s biopharma revenue growth rate in 22Q1-3 outperformed total revenue, indicated this is its second stable growth engine. 4.高壁垒 Gas Box 赛道业务增速亮眼，子公司鸿舸上海临港新工厂已于2022年11月正式投产，国产替代催化推动第二增长曲线快速上扬。当前国内泛半导体Gas Box市场空间较大预估达50亿，据不完全统计中国企业仅公司和富创精密具备模组供应能力，产业基本被国外供应商（如超科林、富士金等）垄断。产能方面，子公司鸿舸在上海临港的工厂已于2022年11月正式投产，产能大幅提升，预计2023年初达到稳产状态。库存方面，公司将适度扩大库存以应对供应链紧张问题。认证方面，目前公司几乎国内所有一线设备厂商都处认证期，预计公司Gas Box领域2023年及往后订单将继续保持良好增速。 (4) High-barrier gas boxes drive good sales: subsidiary Hungo’s new Shanghai Lingang factory rolled out in November 2022; substitution creates growth driver Substitution potential: China has a large pan-semiconductor gas box market that could potentially grow to RMB5bn. The industry is dominated by foreign players (UCTT, Fujikin) and incomplete data indicate that GenTech and Fortune Semi are currently the only Chinese module suppliers. In production capacity terms, its subsidiary Hungo’s factory in Shanghai Lingang began operations in November 2022 and greatly increased the company’s production capacity; it is on track to reach a stable phase by early 2023E. In inventory terms, it is increasing inventory moderately to relieve supply chain tension. Currently, almost all domestic first-tier equipment manufacturers are in the certification phase. We expect the company’s gas box business will maintain good orders growth in 2023E and beyond. 5.合肥、潍坊定增项目预期2023年完工，加码CAPEX向OPEX快速拓展，大宗及特种气体全面布局下，装备+材料+服务综合实力可望再添引擎。公司1.8亿元定增项目已于22年10月募集完毕，用于①年产1260万立方氢气及30万瓶罐装特种气体的合肥高纯氢气项目，建设周期初步规划为12个月；②年产2.13亿立方米（氧、氮、氩）产品的潍坊高纯大宗项目，项目建设周期初步规划为18个月。本次募投项目所拓展的高纯氢伴随燃料电池产业的发展，将拥有广阔的市场空间，大宗气品类也有望深度受益半导体高速成长带来的工艺设备需要。此次定增将夯实公司电子气体板块的业务布局，满足客户同时对多品类气体品种及服务的需求，有利于增强公司产品的辐射范围及影响力。其后伴随产能释放品类扩充应用领域扩展，公司业务发展持续向好。目前潍坊项目已在土建过程中并已完成了核心设备采购，预计2023年中完工；合肥项目已经开始土建并完成核心设备的采购，预计2023年第三到第四季度完工。 (5) Bulk and special gases capacity buildout: private placements meet capex to opex needs for Hefei and Weifang projects; equipment, materials and services The company completed a RMB180m private placement exercise in October 2022 to raise funds to expand capacities under two projects: I.High-purity hydrogen and special gases: the Hefei project will add annual output of 12.6m sq m of hydrogen and 300,000 canisters of special gases. Core equipment have been procured and civil engineering works have begun. The construction period will take 12 months and is slated for completion by 23Q3-4E. II.High-purity bulk gases: the Weifang project will add annual output of 213m sq m of oxygen, nitrogen and argon products. Core equipment have been procured and construction has started. The construction period is 18 months and scheduled to be completed by mid-2023E. The high-purity hydrogen capacity expansion caters to a potentially large market as the fuel cell industry grows. We expect the bulk gas capacity expansion will fulfill process equipment demand brought by the rapid growth of semiconductors. The capacity expansions would beef up GenTech’s electronic gas network. The company would then be better placed to fulfill customer requirements for a wide range of gas varieties and services. The wider product scope would also raise the company’s profile. We believe GenTech’s business growth will benefit with releases of incremental production capacities and expansion of its application markets. 6.员工持股计划适时推出，彰显发展信心。1月公司发布第一期员工持股计划，拟使用不超过80万股对不超过450人实施股权激励，约占公司2022年12月总股本的0.29%。本次员工持股的参加对象包括公司董事（不含独立董事）、高级管理人员、公司中层管理人员及核心业务骨干，其中董事（不含独立董事）、高级管理人员为4人，计划将2023年作为业绩考核年度，公司层面考核指标为2023年营业收入同比增速不低于20%，净利润同比增速不低于20%。有利于提高职工的凝聚力和公司竞争力，调动员工的积极性和创造性。 (6) Employee stock options: the plan’s timely launch demonstrates the company’s confidence in future developments GenTech announced phase I of its employee stock ownership plan (ESOP) earlier this month, by which up to 450 employees will be granted 800,000 shares in equity incentives, amounting to 0.29% of the total share capital as of December 2022. The shortlisted staff include directors (excluding independents), senior and middle management, as well as backbone personnel (including four non-independent directors and senior management). 2023 is the performance evaluation year and the company-level assessment index is pegged to a 2023 revenue yoy growth rate of at least 20% and a net profit yoy growth rate of at least 20%. We believe the stock option plan will increase staff cohesion and raise the company’s competitiveness, while it motivates the employees toward higher innovation standards. 投资建议/Investment Ideas 投资建议：公司客户订单需求强劲，成本营运管控有效，预计公司2022/2023/2024年归母净利润2.67/3.98/5.47亿元。维持公司“买入”评级，对应目标价格为57元/股。 Investment summary We like GenTech’s brisk demand and customer orders, and its operational cost management appears to be effective. We forecast net profit will arrive at RMB267m/ 398m/547m in 2022/23/24E. We maintain our BUY rating with a price target of RMB57. 风险提示：销售区域集中、劳动力成本上升、疫情加重、研发技术人员流失、业绩预告仅为初步核算，具体信息请以公司正式披露的年报为准 Risks include: sales area concentration; rising labor costs; pandemic deterioration; and loss of R&D technicians. Note: our forecast is based on the company’s preliminary estimates and serves only as a reference; please refer to the release of its final earnings report. 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