五洲特纸:精准卡位扎根产业,供需向好释放弹性

（以下内容从天风证券《五洲特纸:精准卡位扎根产业,供需向好释放弹性》研报附件原文摘录）
　　Wuzhou Special Paper Group (605007 CH) 精准卡位扎根产业，供需向好释放弹性 Initiating coverage: specialty paper leader benefits from precise positioning and growing supply-demand elasticity BUY(Initiation) 投资要点/Investment Thesis 投资要点/Investment Thesis 特种纸领军企业，技术创新优势显著 五洲特纸是国内大型特种纸研发和生产企业之一，产品按下游应用可分为食品包装纸、格拉辛纸、描图纸，转移印花纸以及文化纸/箱包纸五大系列。特种纸由于功能化强、定制化程度高，所以大型高端客户准入时间较长是行业特点，目前公司已经服务国内大部分重要优质客户。 Specialty paper leader: technological innovations drive revenue growth About WSP: Wuzhou Special Paper (WSP) is a large-scale Chinese R&D-based manufacturer and its products cover five downstream categories: food packaging; glassine; tracing; print transfer; and graphic and carton paper. The onboarding cycle for large premium customers in this industry is typically long, since specialization papers have high functionality and customization requirements. Most of WSP’s portfolio comprise key Chinese premium customers. 公司22Q1-3收入45.5亿同增69.5%，主要系产能释放，销量增加所致；22Q1-3归母净利2.2亿同减28.7%，系原材料成本上涨较大导致业务毛利率减少，期间费用增加所致。 食品包装纸是公司主要收入来源，2021年食品包装纸收入17.5亿（占比47.3%）同增17.8%，公司聚焦于食品包装纸、格拉辛纸等市场体量大的纸种，形成了“固定纸机生产特定产品的模式”。 Financials: WSP generated RMB4.55bn revenue in 22Q1-3, up 69.5% yoy, when it rolled out incremental production capacities and lifted sales volumes; however, net profit fell 28.7% yoy to RMB220m on sharp raw material cost increases and heavier expenses, which narrowed gross margins in the period. Food packaging paper, its main income stream, generated revenue of RMB1.75bn in 2021 (47.3% of the total), up 17.8% yoy; its other major categories include glassine paper and other large-volume products. It has established a production model that is based on fixed-line customized products. 特种纸领域类别丰富，行业景气度较高 供需结构持续向好，行业集中度有望上升。特种纸是多规格、小规模、定制化生产，同时以直销为主，与客户绑定较为紧密，具有较强的渠道壁垒。同时成本转嫁能力高于大宗纸种，体现为较稳定的盈利能力。根据智研咨询，2014年国内特种纸及纸板行业消费量205万吨，2020年330万吨CAGR8.25%。 China’s extensive specialty paper categories provide lucrative prospects Maturing Chinese market: the specialty paper industry’s supply and demand dynamics continue to improve and we expect market concentration to rise. Specialty paper products have multi-functional specifications and tend to be small scale according to customized requirements. They are mainly sold through the direct sales channel to customers with strong ties, presenting a high competitive barrier. The specialty segment also has higher cost pass-through than the bulk market and this leads to more stable profitability. Zhiyan Consulting data shows that Chinese specialty paper and paperboard consumption amounted to 2.05m tons in 2014 and the market grew to 3.3m tons in 2020 on an 8.25% CAGR. 我国特种纸产品广泛，包括食品包装纸、装饰原纸、热敏纸等，覆盖医疗、食品、装饰、工业等多个领域；其中食品包装纸占比最大，2021年数据约32%。 食品包装纸加速发展，格拉辛纸需求持续增长。纸质包装与塑料、金属、玻璃等其他材质包装相比，兼具美观大方、成本较低、卫生安全、健康环保；“以纸代塑”在消费领域长期发展趋势不变。2011到2021年我国食品包装特种纸产量由107万增至267万吨，2014至20年CAGR 12.4%。 Food packaging paper: China makes an extensive range of specialty paper products, including food packaging, decorative base, thermal, medical-grade and industrial papers. Among these, food packaging paper forms the largest category at about 32% as of 2021. The food packaging paper market is growing while glassine paper demand is rising. Relative to plastic, metal or glass, paper packaging has the following characteristics: attractive appearance, lower cost, environmentally friendly and are better for health and safety. We believe the “paper over plastic” preference in the consumer market will sustain market growth for the long term. China’s food packaging specialty paper production rose from 1.07m to 2.67m tons over 2011-21, with a CAGR of 12.4% over 2014-20. 格拉辛纸主要用途为不干胶标签的离型底纸。近几年在无溶剂涂布、印刷高速化和高速贴标的技术推动下，格拉辛纸逐渐成为标签离型纸主流产品。格拉辛纸产量从2016年19万吨增至2020年39万吨，CAGR19%。 Glassine paper is mainly used as a backing for self-adhesive labels. It has become the main type of label backings with the recent rise of solvent-free coatings, high-speed printing and high-speed labeling. Glassine paper production increased from 190kt in 2016 to 390kt in 2020 at a CAGR of 19%. 市场空间广阔，多类业务向好发展。热转印纸渗透率有望提升，下游产业庞大稳定支持需求；2021年我国热转印纸产量23万吨，2011至2021年CAGR8.58%；数码热转印技术目前国内应用尚不广泛，未来有望打开市场空间。描图纸行业集中度较高，竞争格局清晰，2020年描图纸市场规模约为2万吨，其中五洲特纸和民丰特纸两家公司产量占总市场规模61.6%。 The specialty paper market covers an extensive range with the multiple varieties developing well. We expect thermal transfer paper penetration to deepen in view of its large downstream industry and stable demand. China produced 230kt of thermal transfer paper in 2021 at a 8.58% CAGR over 2011-21. Digital thermal transfer technology hasn’t quite caught on in China yet, so we see market growth potential here. The tracing paper industry is highly concentrated with a clearcut competitive structure: the combined output by WSP and Minfeng Special Paper accounted for 61.6% of the 20kt market in 2020. 规模效应优势彰显，浆纸一体化持续推进 生产规模领先，产能布局全面。公司注重规模建设，形成较大规模特种纸生产能力。截至2022年6月30日，公司已经建成8条原纸生产线，产能近135万吨，形成较大规模特种纸生产能力。 从生产基地布局来说，江西基地贡献100万吨，占总产能75%。江西基地配套完整，拥有自备电厂，可实现用电和蒸汽的自给自足。 公司135万吨产能中，食品包装纸占78万吨，是该细分板块龙头，格拉辛纸产能21万吨，产能行业第一。 WSP’s strengths: scale economies and pulp-and-paper integrated buildout 1.35m ton production capacity: the company’s competitive edge is its high production scale and comprehensive production capacities. To this end, its agenda is to scale up specialty paper production capacities. WSP currently has 8 base paper production lines which have a total capacity of nearly 1.35m tons as of 30 June 2022. The Jiangxi base, which produces 75% of total capacity at 1m tons, has comprehensive facilities including its own power plant to ensure electricity and steam self-sufficiency. The largest segment of food packaging paper accounts for 780kt of the total 1.35m tons, while glassine paper contributes 210kt, the highest in the industry. 公司计划新增多条产线，预计于2023年新增1.5万吨描图纸产能， 2.2万吨转移印花纸产能，同时计划新增30万吨年产能化机浆产线，力求持续推进浆纸一体化。 Expansion plans: the company intends to enhance pulp and paper business integration. It plans to add a number of production lines in 2023E, including 15kt tracing paper capacity and 22kt print transfer paper capacity. It is also planning an additional production line for 300ktpa pulp capacity. 净资产收益率处行业前列。公司成本管控能力强，净资产收益率处行业前列。公司费用率控制得当，常年处于可比公司低位，生产效率优势明显，ROE领先同行。同时，五洲运营能力强，存货周转率与固定资产周转率高；采用以销定产的生产模式，确保订单有序推进、准时交货。 Healthy ROE: it ROE ratio is among the highest in the industry. WSP demonstrates good cost control and its return on net assets ratio is among the highest in the industry. Its expense ratio is well managed and remains low throughout the year relative to peers. It has visible production efficiency advantages and a higher ROE than peers. WSP also has strong operating capacity, high inventory turnover and fixed asset turnover rates. Its production model is based on sales to ensure smooth progress and on-time deliveries. 核心客户稳定，提升技术着眼未来。优质大型客户一方面给公司带来稳定持续的业务，另一方面能够促进公司不断改善产品生产工艺、降低生产成本，形成竞争优势与品牌效应，进而带动公司新客户的开拓，形成良性循环。 Sturdy customer portfolio: WSP has a stable core customer portfolio and continues to upgrade its tech capability. Its quality and large-scale customers provide stable and sustainable business while they also drive the company’s product tech upgrades, reduce production cost, increase its competitive advantages and brand impact. These advantages attract new customers to form a virtuous circle. 投资建议/Investment Ideas 首次覆盖，给予“买入”评级 我们预计公司22-24年归母净利分别为3.90亿、6.53亿以及8.48亿，EPS分别为0.98元、1.63元以及2.12元；我们选取造纸行业仙鹤股份、华旺科技、冠豪高新作为可比，据可比公司均值，给予五洲特纸23年PE估值19-22X，对应市值124亿-144亿，对应股价31元-36元。首次覆盖，给予“买入”评级。 Valuation and risks We project net profit to arrive at RMB390m/653m/848m in 2022/23/24E, implying EPS of RMB0.98/1.63/2.12. Relative to the average valuation of papermaking peers Xianhe, Huawang Technology and Guanhao High-tech, we assign to Wuzhou Special Paper a PE range of 19-22x in 2023E, corresponding to market cap of RMB12.4bn-14.4bn and a share price range of RMB31-36. We initiate coverage with a BUY rating. 风险提示：纸浆价格反复波动的风险、产能投放不及预期的风险、疫情反复的风险、项目实施的风险、市场竞争加剧的风险、安全事故造成的停产以及可能承担的赔偿责任对公司经营业绩的负面影响 Risks include: persistent pulp price fluctuation; lower production capacity than expected; persistent pandemic impact; project implementation risks; intensifying competition; and safety incidents leading to production shutdowns and presenting potential liabilities to the company’s operating performance. 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