立讯精密: 股权激励助力长期成长,持续看好大客户弹性+MR卡位潜力+汽车业务成长

（以下内容从天风证券《立讯精密: 股权激励助力长期成长,持续看好大客户弹性+MR卡位潜力+汽车业务成长》研报附件原文摘录）
　　Luxshare Precision Industry (002475 CH) 股权激励助力长期成长，持续看好大客户弹性+MR卡位潜力+汽车业务成长 Equity incentives to cement long-term growth; big customer elasticity, MR edge and automotive business catalysts BUY (maintain) 投资要点/Investment Thesis 投资要点/Investment Thesis 事件：公司于2022年11月13日发布2022年股票期权激励计划（草案），拟向激励对象授予的股票期权总量为17,202.10万份，约占激励计划签署时公司股本总额709,866.63万股的2.42%。 点评：股权激励绑定核心团队助力长期成长。公司于2022年11月13日发布2022年股票期权激励计划（草案），拟向激励对象授予的股票期权总量为17,202.10万份，约占激励计划签署时公司股本总额709,866.63万股的2.42%。2022年股权激励计划草案激励对象共计3,759人，占公司截至2021年12月31日在册员工总人数228,152人的1.65%。激励对象包括公司董事、高级管理人员、公司（含子公司及参股公司）中层管理人员及核心技术（业务）骨干，授予的股票期权的行权价格为每股30.35元。对应业绩考核目标为2023/2024/2025/2026/2027年的营业收入分别不低于2,300/2,600/2,900/3,200/3,500亿元，体现长期成长信心。此次激励计划授予的股票期权自授权日起满12个月后，激励对象应在未来60个月内按照20%：20%：20%：20%：20%的比例分5期行权。 Long-term growth conviction: incentives align interests of core team and company Luxshare’s 2022 stock option incentive plan, a draft of which was released on 13 Nov, details 172.021m options to be granted to key staff, equivalent at the time to 2.42% of its 7098.7m share capital. Equity incentives align the interests of its core team with those of the company to help drive its long-term growth. The targeted 3,759 recipients, comprising 1.65% of its 228,152 staff as of 31 Dec 2021, include directors, senior managers, middle managers (subsidiaries and holding companies included) and its backbone business tech team. The exercise price is RMB30.35 per share. The incentives are tied to revenue goals of at least RMB230bn/260bn/290bn/320bn/350bn in 2023/24/25/26/27E, reflecting Luxshare’s future growth conviction. And 12 months after receiving the stock options, recipients can exercise them in five installments of 20/20/20/20/20% within 60 months. 持续坚定看好公司精密制造+一体化垂直整合优势下长期成长性+竞争优势，持续看好大客户弹性+MR卡位优势+汽车业务成长放量： 重点关注大客户弹性：1）消费电子需求疲软背景下，大客户手机份额&ASP持续提升，韧性凸显；2）iPhone组装份额提升（郑州富士康疫情，苹果有转单预期，公司或将承接部分产能）；3）Apple watch业务增长；4）控股子公司立铠精密显示结构模组业务高成长；5）我们认为，组装作为零部件出海口，在垂直整合的趋势下，零部件模组长期有充足的成长空间。 Potential catalysts: major customer elasticity, MR positioning and auto growth We reiterate our thesis that Luxshare will achieve its long-term goals based on its competitive advantages and its integration of precision manufacturing with comprehensive vertical business coverage on a long-term horizon. Potential catalysts include major customer elasticity, an MR advantage and automotive business growth: (1) Major customer elasticity ·Luxshare’s mobile phone business share and major customer ASPs continue to rise, reflecting its resilience amid generally weak consumer electronics demand. ·Its share of the iPhone assembly business is increasing (with rival Foxconn dealing with the Zhengzhou pandemic, Apple could transfer orders and Luxshare take on some of the production capacity). ·Apple watch business growth. ·Holding subsidiary Likai Precision Technology is seeing high growth in its display structure module business. ·With the vertical integration trend driving component exports in its assembly business, we see long-term growth potential for its component module business. 看好MR卡位优势：虚拟现实短期高增长态势放缓，长期成长趋势不变，重点关注苹果MR产品推出对于虚拟现实及消费电子产业链的拉动，看好立讯MR卡位优势。坚定看好苹果在硬件配置+用户交互+内容生态+跨终端联动的行业领先性，新品发布有望引领虚拟现实体验再上新台阶，同时拉动消费电子产业创新。公司现有产品覆盖苹果多终端、多产品线，公司旗下立景创新收购的高伟电子为苹果摄像头模组供应商，有能力导入MR摄像头模组封装，控股子公司立铠为大客户平板电脑、笔记本电脑、手机结构件的供应商，成立子公司聚焦虚拟现实设备发展，有望加速相关业务布局、客户导入和成长放量，看好下一代消费电子产品创新+立讯卡位优势。 (2) Well positioned for long-term MR growth Apple supply chain: although the high-growth virtual reality (VR) business is slowing in the short term, its long-term trend is unchanged. We would monitor Apple’s MR product launches and their impact on the VR and consumer electronics supply chains. We believe that Luxshare has a favorable market position. We strongly believe in Apple’s industry leadership in terms of hardware configuration, user interaction, content ecosystem and cross-terminal linkage. We anticipate its new product releases would take the VR user experience to a whole new level, while stimulating innovation efforts in the consumer electronics industry. VR subsidiary: Luxshare’s products currently cover Apple’s multi-terminal and multi-product lines. Luxshare’s subsidiary Cowell Electronics was acquired by Apple camera module supplier Lijing Innovation, which has the ability to import MR camera module packaging. Likai Precision Technology, a holding subsidiary of Luxshare, supplies tablets, notebooks and mobile phone structural parts to major customers. Having a subsidiary that focuses on VR device growth could accelerate the development of its related businesses, customer introduction and growth. We like Luxshare’s advantages in view of the next-gen consumer electronics product innovation trend. 关注汽车业务放量，如严重缺芯等极端意外状况未发生，公司预期汽车业务未来5年内保持50%以上的成长：1）线束、连接器：线束、连接器产品等将充分受益于智能化、电动化带来的市场扩容，且已导入北美新能源品牌客户、国内造车新势力等，同时公司积极扩产新能源汽车、智能汽车连接产品。2）汽车电子电器业务：集团汽车业务深度协同，公司体外收购标的BCS拓展汽车电子产品，延伸布局智能座舱和自动驾驶，旗下公司立景创新具备车载摄像头模组资质；公司布局汽车电动化（PDU、BDU、逆变器）；公司网联化产品（RSU、TCU、CGW）受益于电动化、网联化成长。3）汽车Tier1.5业务：汽车软硬件解耦合趋势带动行业供应链格局重塑，汽车Tier 1.5厂商承担硬件结构性组合及测试功能空间充足，公司消费电子OEM经验+优势有望迁移汽车PCBA助力相关业务成长。 (3) Automotive business growth: watch the volume metrics Excluding extreme events such as a severe chip shortage, Luxshare expects its automotive business to maintain growth rates above 50% over the next 5 years: ·Wire harnesses and connectors: these product segments benefit fully from market expansion due to the intelligentization and electrification trends. Luxshare’s new energy customers include North America brands and Chinese car makers. It is expanding into the production of NEV and smart car connector products. ·Automotive electronics synergy: the company’s acquisition of BCS expands its automotive electronics products while widening its smart cockpits and autonomous driving coverage. Lijing Innovation has obtained vehicle camera module certifications. Its development has been expanded to include automobile electrification (PDU, BDU, inverters) and its connectivity products (RSU, TCU, CGW) benefit from electrification and connectivity market growth. ·Automotive tier 1.5: the decoupling of automotive software from hardware is reshaping the supply chain industry structure. Automotive tier 1.5 manufacturers have enough capacity to undertake hardware structural combinations and testing functions. We expect Luxshare to extend its consumer electronics OEM experience and advantages to help grow its automotive PCB assembly businesses. 投资建议/Investment Ideas 投资建议：维持公司22/23/24年归母净利润为98.5/149/201亿元的盈利预测，维持“买入”评级。 Executive summary and risks We maintain our BUY rating and net profit forecasts at RMB9.85bn/14.9bn/20.1bn for 2022/23/24E. 风险提示：虚拟现实设备行业需求不及预期、公司虚拟现实业务进展不及预期、行业竞争加剧风险、消费电子产业转移风险、地缘政治风险、汽车电动化、智能化、网联化不及预期、汽车业务产品研发、客户认证不及预期、由于受到宏观经济环境的变化、行业景气度的波动、市场竞争加剧等原因影响激励计划所设定的业绩指标存在无法达成的风险 Risks include: lower VR device demand than expected; slower VR business progress than expected; intensifying competition; consumer electronics industry transfer; geopolitical risks; weaker-than-expected auto electrification, intelligentization and connectivity ramp-up; product R&D risks; automotive customer certifications falling short of expectations; and failure to meet incentive plan performance targets due to macroeconomic changes, industry performance fluctuations or intense competition. 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