鲁泰A: 产品结构升级+新兴市场发力打开成长空间

（以下内容从天风证券《鲁泰A: 产品结构升级+新兴市场发力打开成长空间》研报附件原文摘录）
　　Lu Thai Textile (000726 CH) 产品结构升级+新兴市场发力打开成长空间 Initiating coverage: higher-end product matrix and emerging market drivers expand growth potential TP：RMB10.34 BUY (Initiation) 投资要点/Investment Thesis 投资要点/Investment Thesis 全球高档色织面料及国际大牌衬衫制造龙头疫后复苏加快，短期人民币贬值有望进一步提升盈利能力 鲁泰纺织股份有限公司成立于1988年，主营中高档衬衫用色织面料、印染面料、针织面料、成衣等产品，拥有从棉花种植到纺织、染整、制衣生产，直至品牌营销的完整产业链。公司衬衫用色织面料、印染面料、成衣等产品70%左右销往美国、欧盟、日本等60多个国家和地区，与国内外知名品牌商建立战略合作关系。 Post-C19: premium yarn-dyed & apparel producers bounce back; FX raised profits Lu Thai Textiles started out in 1988 engaged mainly in making yarn-dyed fabrics, printing and dyeing fabrics, and making knitted fabrics, ready-to-wear and other products for the higher-end shirt market. Its full supply-chain business ranges from cotton cultivation to textile production, dyeing and finishing, apparel production and brand marketing. About 70% of the company’s products, such as yarn-dyed fabrics for shirts, printed and dyed fabrics and ready-to-wear apparel, are sold to more than 60 countries and regions, including the US, EU and Japan. It has strategic ties with Chinese and foreign brands. 疫后需求及生产逐步复苏，订单提升推动业绩快速恢复。2021年营收52.38亿，同增10.3%；22H1营收33.30亿，同增50%。2021年归母净利3.48亿，同增257%；22H1归母净利3.94亿，同增157%。22H1毛利率25.01%，同增6.59pct，归母净利率11.83%，同增4.92pct。短期人民币贬值有望进一步提升盈利能力。据敏感度测试，人民币兑美元汇率每贬值1%，公司净利润将提高约4%。 Demand and production recovery post-pandemic: 2021 revenue came to RMB5.24bn, up 10.3% yoy, while H1 revenue was RMB3.33bn, up 50% yoy. 2021 net profit came to RMB348m, up 257% yoy, while 22H1 net profit was RMB394m, up 157% yoy. 22H1 gross margin was 25.01%, up 6.59ppt yoy, while net profit was 11.83%, up 4.92ppt yoy. Short-term RMB depreciation would have enhanced profitability. A sensitivity test shows that for every 1% RMB depreciation against the USD, Lu Thai’s net profit rose about 4%. 中国为色织布主要市场，消费需求向高端化、绿色环保转型 我国是全球最大的色织布生产基地，约占全球色织布产量的三分之二，出口量远远大于进口量，且进口量呈下降趋势，但出口价格低于进口价格，国产色织布价格仍有提升空间。同时近年来伴随环保压力增大、生产要素成本提高、消费需求向中高端方向发展，色织布领域面临转型升级。 China is the main yarn-dyed market; demand shift to high-end on green factors The world’s largest yarn-dyed fabric production base: China produces about two-thirds of the global total and its export volume is far greater than its import volume, which is on a down trend. However, with export prices lower than import prices, Chinese yarn-dyed fabrics have room for improvement. Environmental protection pressure has increased for industries in recent years. This, along with increases in production costs, has led a consumer demand shift toward the higher end of the market, and yarn-dyed fabrics are are undergoing upgrades along with a market restructure. 国内竞争格局结构性显著，产能向中高端集中。早期国内色织工艺技术水平较低、低端市场竞争激烈。近年来欧美等发达国家地区主要棉纺色织厂商已将其生产基地转移至更具劳动力成本优势的亚洲发展中国家，在国家产业政策的引导下，大量民营资本介入高端色织面料生产领域，中国现已形成了一批具有较大规模的染纱、织布、后整理产业一体化的全能型企业。 Rising competitive structure of Chinese market and production shift to higher end: in the early days, technical levels of domestic yarn-dyed woven technology were relatively low and competition was fierce at the low end of the market. In recent years, major cotton yarn-dyed manufacturers in developed countries such as Europe and the US transferred production bases to developing Asian countries due to their labor cost advantage. Under national industrial policies, heavy private-sector capital went into the production of high-end yarn-dyed fabrics. China moved to integrate several large-scale dyeing, weaving and finishing industries such that a group of large-scale full-coverage companies now provide an integrated business in these processes. 垂直一体化优势稳固，产品结构升级+新兴市场发力打开成长空间 一体化全产业链布局，东南亚持续扩产释放增长动能。公司产能布局贯穿上下游纱线、面料、服装各环节，并自2013年起布局东南亚。2021年公司面料产能规模约2.94亿米，服装产能规模约2030万件。截至22H1，公司国内外面料产能分别占比80%/20%，国内外服装产能分别占比44%/56%，疫后产能利用率逐步恢复，目前均已恢复至85%+。 Vertical integration: stability, higher-end product matrix, emerging market drivers Whole supply chain integration as expanding SEA production drives growth: Lu Thai’s production capacity network covers all aspects of the upstream and downstream: yarns, fabrics and apparel. It has been operating in Southeast Asia since 2013. Its 2021 fabric production capacity amounted to about 294m meters and apparel production capacity came to about 20.3m pieces. As of 22H1, its Chinese and overseas fabric production capacities accounted for 80% and 20% respectively of its business, while domestic and foreign apparel production capacities accounted for 44% and 56% respectively. In the wake of the pandemic, its capacity utilization rate has gradually recovered to more than 85% currently. 新产能扩张持续进行中：面料方面，越南年产3000万米高档面料项目进行中，有望于23年底释放部分产能；国内年产3500万米高档功能性面料启动。成衣方面，越南年产300万件成衣产能6月份已安装完毕将进入试生产阶段。 Production capacity expansion in progress: ·high-grade fabrics: its Vietnam project is in progress to add 30m meters p.a. and we expect it will release part of this capacity by the end of 2023E. ·high-grade functional fabrics: it has started to roll out 35m meters p.a. of production capacity in China. ·apparel: it installed production capacity for 3m pieces in Vietnam in June and is set to enter trial production. 技术迭代+产品创新，新技术、新材料提升高附加值产品占比。重视研发创新，构建高效研发体系。深耕面料技术，引进先进技术设备推动产品升级；同时为传统技术实施配套改造和深度挖掘，进行大规模技术改造和集成创新；响应国家节能减排号召，围绕环保做减法，彰显绿色价值，成功开发具有国际领先水平的“半缸染色”技术，节能效果显著。 More value-added products: innovations and iteration; new tech and new materials Lu Thai’s commitment to R&D-driven innovations led to the establishment of an efficient R&D system. It researched fabric technology, and introduced tech advances and equipment to upgrade its products. It also supports the transformation of traditional technologies, carrying out large-scale technological transformation and market integrated innovation. In accordance with energy conservation and emission reduction national policies, it made reductions aligned with environmental protection that reflected the green initiative. Its global-leading development of “half-cylinder dyeing” technology achieved remarkable energy savings. 深度合作国际知名品牌，积极拓展国内外新市场。与Burberry、Calvin Klein、HUGO BOSS、Armani、Gucci、OLYMP、UNIQLO、利郎、海澜之家等国内外知名品牌商长期建立战略合作关系，在中高档色织面料出口市场份额占全球市场18%以上。大力开拓国内及亚非新兴市场和中小客户，保持客户订单量稳中有升。 Deep ties with renowned global brands; exploring emerging markets and SMEs Lu Thai has longtime strategic partnerships with well-known Chinese and foreign brands, such as Burberry, Calvin Klein, Hugo Boss, Armani, Gucci, Olymp, Uniqlo, Lilanz and Heilan Home. Its medium to high-grade yarn-dyed fabrics account for more than 18% of the global market. It is exploring Chinese and emerging markets in Asia and Africa, including SME customers, to maintain a steady order uptrend. 积极寻求新合作，2021年与阿里巴巴集团下犀牛智造签署战略合作协议，实现工厂全流程数字化，智能对接淘宝天猫商家需求，实现按需生产，加快反应速度，扩大线上市场份额。 Rhino Smart Manufacturing: the company signed a strategic cooperation agreement with Alibaba Group’s Rhino Smart Manufacturing platform in 2021 to enable the digitalization of the whole process factory, meet the intelligentization needs of its Taobao and T-mall merchants, fulfill on-demand production, speed up response time and its expand online market share. 投资建议/Investment Ideas 首次覆盖，给予买入评级。我们预计2022-24年营收分别为70.68亿、77.42亿、82.81亿元，归母净利分别为7.17亿、8.56亿、9.36亿元，EPS分别为0.81、0.96、1.05元/股，对应PE分别为9.3、7.8、7.1倍。可比公司2023年平均PE为10.73倍，给予公司2023年合理PE 10.73倍，对应目标价为10.34元。 Valuation and risks We expect revenue to arrive at RMB7.07bn/7.74bn/8.28bn and net profit at RMB717m/856m/936m in 2022/23/24E, with EPS at RMB0.81/0.96/1.05, corresponding to PEs of 9.3/7.8/7.1x. Relative to an average PE of 10.73x for its peers in 2023E, we assign to Lu Thai a reasonable PE of 10.73x in 2023E, corresponding to our target price of RMB10.34. We initiate coverage with a BUY call. 风险提示：贸易环境不确定性；原材料价格波动；海外项目投产进度或开工率不及预期；未来订单恢复不及预期；汇率变动等风险。 Risks include: trading environment uncertainties; raw material price volatility; worse-than-expected overseas production progress or operating ratios; a slower-than-expected order recovery ahead; and FX changes. 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