莱茵生物: 2022年前三季度业绩预计延续高增长,天然甜味剂需求强劲

（以下内容从天风证券《莱茵生物: 2022年前三季度业绩预计延续高增长,天然甜味剂需求强劲》研报附件原文摘录）
　　Guilin Layn Natural Ingredients (002166 CH) 2022年前三季度业绩预计延续高增长，天然甜味剂需求强劲 Plant extracts in a sweet spot: high-growth 22Q1-3E guidance on strong demand for natural sweeteners BUY (maintain) 投资要点/Investment Thesis 投资要点/Investment Thesis 事件：公司发布2022年前三季度业绩预告，预计2022Q1-Q3实现归母净利润1.66-2.01亿元，同比增长90%-130%，实现扣非净利润1.46-1.72亿元，同比增长130%-170%。 天然甜味剂业务延续高增长，持续夯实核心竞争力 公司预计2022Q1-Q3实现归母净利润1.66-2.01亿元，同比增长90%-130%，实现扣非净利润1.46-1.72亿元，同比增长130%-170%；单Q3实现归母净利润0.42-0.53亿元，同比增长50%-90%，扣非净利润0.43-0.54亿元，同比增长50%-90%。2022年前三季度，全球天然、健康产品消费需求持续强劲，带动公司植物提取产品市场需求持续增长，公司预计前三季度植物提取业务收入同比增长30%+，其中天然甜味剂业务营收预计同比增长超40%。 Natural sweeteners up over 40% in Q1-3E as Layn firms core business strength Sweet profit guidance: Layn released 22Q1-3E guidance with net profit at RMB166m-201m, up 90-130% yoy, and nonrecurring net profit at RMB146m-172m, a yoy increase of 130-170%. It guides Q3E net profit at RMB42m-53m, a yoy increase of 50-90%, with nonrecurring net profit at RMB43m-54m, similarly up 50-90% yoy. Global demand for natural and healthy products stayed robust over the first three quarters of the year, which drove demand for Layn’s botanical extract products and it expects plant extract revenue in the period to have risen over 30% yoy, with natural sweeteners up more than 40% yoy. 公司天然甜味剂产品已与可口可乐、百事等众多国际知名客户建立合作关系，2018年与美国最大香精香料公司芬美意签订累计目标收入4亿美元的独家分销合同，战略绑定大客户；国内市场公司亦依托上海亚太营销中心及桂林销售部，与众多知名食饮品牌达成合作，签订子承生物（原太子奶团队）1亿元订单，共同推出减糖、无糖产品，市场开拓成效显现。同时公司定增落地，预计新增甜叶菊提取物年产量4000吨，产能加速扩张，并且公司持续提升内生增长动力，通过技改、工艺优化等手段，进一步提升产能及效率，加强期间费用率管控，持续夯实天然甜味剂业务核心竞争力。 Major customers: Layn established natural sweetener partnerships with many world renowned customers, such as Coca-Cola and Pepsi. Its exclusive distribution contract in 2018 with Firmenich, the largest US flavor and fragrance company, with an cumulative revenue target of USD400m, is part of its strategy to woo major customers. In the Chinese market, Layn cooperates with well-known F&B brands through Shanghai Asia-Pacific Marketing Center and Guilin Sales Department. It signed an RMB100m order with Zicheng Bio (formerly Prince Dairy) to jointly launch reduced-sugar and sugar-free products. And the market efforts have yielded results. Production expansion: Layn plans to increase production capacity and increase output of stevia extract by 4ktpa. The fast expansion drives its endogenous growth momentum. Its tech restructure and process optimization, along with incremental production growth and better efficiency, could improve management and control of period expense ratio. This aids the consolidation of its core competitive competency in natural sweeteners. 联邦层面cannabis合法化持续推进，CBD提取物需求有望加速释放 公司于2019年正式布局工业大麻，累计投资8000万美元在美建设“工业大麻提取工厂”，于6月底正式量产，为目前全球最大工业大麻提取工厂，被印第安纳州政府列为示范项目，预计年处理原料5000吨，项目毛利率可达50%。政策方面，4月1日美国众议院第二次通过联邦cannabis合法化法案（MORE Act）；同时参议院联邦合法化法案《大麻管理与机会法案》（CAOA）于7月底正式提交，美国总统拜登亦于10月6日发布声明表示将对联邦层面cannabis合法化事项进行行政审查，联邦层面cannabis合法化或将加速推进，市场有望快速扩容。我们认为，未来公司有望复用其在植物提取领域打造的渠道、客户、品牌优势，快速打开CBD国际市场，享受行业快速增长红利。 US federal legalization of cannabis progressing; CBD extract demand potential Industrial hemp: the company officially started an industrial hemp business in 2019, investing USD80m to build an industrial hemp extraction factory in the US. It achieved mass production at the end of June. Layn is currently the world’s largest industrial hemp extraction factory and is listed as a pilot project company by the Indiana government. We estimate annual processing capacity for 5kt of raw materials and gross margin could reach 50%. Administrative review: in terms of policy, the US House of Representatives passed the Marijuana Opportunity Reinvestment and Expungement Act (MORE Act) for the second time on April 1. Meanwhile, the federal legalization bill in the Senate, the Cannabis Administration and Opportunity Act (CAOA), was officially submitted at the end of July. And President Biden announced on 6 Oct that he would conduct an administrative review of the legalization of cannabis at the federal level. With the legalization process accelerating, we would expect the market to expand rapidly. In the future, we expect the company to leverage channels, customers and brand advantages that Layn had formed in the plant extraction business to quickly open up the international CBD market so as to enjoy the industry’s rapid growth. 投资建议/Investment Ideas 盈利预测及投资建议：我们认为，公司受益于“减糖”大趋势，天然甜味剂业务进入高速增长期；同时美国工业大麻相关政策持续向好，CBD提取物需求有望加速释放，预计公司22-24年营收为17.45/25.74/36.38亿元，同比增长65.69%/47.52%/41.34%，净利润为2.56/3.91/5.94亿元，同比增长115.87%/53.02%/51.74%，维持“买入”评级。 Valuation and risks Layn is benefiting from the broad trend to reduce sugar intake and its natural sweetener business has entered a rapid growth cycle. At the same time, industrial hemp policies in the US continue to improve, while demand for CBD extracts could also similarly accelerate in the future. We expect to see revenue of RMB1.75bn/2.57bn/3.64bn in 2022/23/24E, with yoy increases of 65.69/47.52/41.34%, and net profit of RMB256m/391m/594m, with yoy increases of 115.87/53.02/ 51.74%. We maintain our BUY rating. 风险提示：宏观经济风险，技术风险，汇率波动风险，疫情风险；政策风险；工业大麻与中间型大麻、娱乐大麻与毒品严格区分，坚决反对娱乐大麻等合法化；我国目前从未批准工业大麻用于医用和食品添加；相关业务或有政策变动/法律/经营管理/自然/研发操作风险；业绩预告是初步核算结果，具体财务数据以公司披露的三季报为准。 Risks include: macroeconomic risks; technological risks; FX volatility; pandemic risks; policy risks; strict distinctions between industrial and intermediate hemp, and recreational marijuana vs drugs, or strong opposition to the legalization of recreational hemp; no precedence in China of approving industrial hemp for medical use or in food additives; related businesses could be impacted by policy changes, along with legal, management, natural, R&D and operational risks. Note: the company’s guidance is based on preliminary accounting and subject to actual financial data to be disclosed in the final Q3 results report. 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