纺织服装:Nike全球放折扣清库存,中国继续下滑;国牌环境依旧向上,供应链或短期承压

（以下内容从天风证券《纺织服装:Nike全球放折扣清库存,中国继续下滑;国牌环境依旧向上,供应链或短期承压》研报附件原文摘录）
　　China Textiles and Apparel Nike全球放折扣清库存，中国继续下滑；国牌环境依旧向上，供应链或短期承压 Nike’s Greater China business slid in FY23Q1 amid global clearance discounts; China brands enjoy operational edge 投资要点/Investment Thesis 投资要点/Investment Thesis 耐克FY23Q1（2022/6/1-8/31）收入127亿美元，约900亿人民币，同增10%（汇率中性，下同）。 分品牌看，NIKE品牌收入120亿美元，约855亿人民币，同增10%，其中NIKE直营收入51亿美金，同增14%；电商收入同增23%；批发收入同增8%；Converse品牌收入6.4亿美元，约合46亿人民币，同增8%。 分地区看，NIKE大中华收入16.6亿美金，约118亿人民币，同减13%（FY22Q4同减20%），其中鞋同减11%，服装同减18%，装备同减10%；北美地区收入同增13%，EMEA同增17%，亚太拉美同增16%。 Converse大中华区同样下滑，北美及欧洲双位数增长。 毛利率减少2.2PCT至44.3%，主要受运费上涨影响物流成本，NIKE直营利润率因降价而降低，外汇不利变化及战略定价行动；整体利润率减少主要系北美地区，公司直营清理过剩库存而减价（本季北美库存增长65%）和批发市场拖累。 本季净利14.7亿美金，约104亿人民币，同减22%；EPS为0.93美金，同减20%。 Nike brand’s FYQ1 revenue rose 10% yoy globally but fell 13% in Greater China Nike (NKE US, not rated) reported revenue of USD12.7bn (about RMB90bn) in FY23Q1 (1 June to 31 August 2022), up 10% yoy (FX-neutral basis; the same applies below). ·Brands: main brand Nike generated FYQ1 revenue of USD12bn (about RMB85.5bn), up 10% yoy, including direct revenue of USD5.1bn, up 14% yoy; ecommerce rose 23% yoy; wholesale increased 8% yoy. Converse revenue in the quarter amounted to USD640m (about RMB4.6bn), an increase of 8% yoy. ·Regions: Greater China generated USD1.66bn (about RMB11.8bn) for the Nike brand in FY23Q1, down 13% yoy (vs down 20% yoy in FY22Q4); segmental yoy declines: 11% in shoes, 18% in apparel and 10% yoy in equipment. Elsewhere, revenues rose yoy: 13% in North America, 17% in EMEA, and 16% in Asia Pacific and Latin America. Converse also declined in Greater China, while its revenues tracked double-digit growth in North America and Europe. ·Margins: gross margin fell 2.2ppt to 44.3% in FYQ1, mainly due to an increase in freight cost, which raised logistics cost. Price cuts in the Nike brand reduced direct operating profit margin, as well as worsening FX and strategic pricing actions. North America accounted for most of the total profit margin decline in the quarter, with directly managed stores cutting prices to clear excess inventory (which rose 65% in North America), along with downward price pressure in the wholesale market. ·Net profit for the quarter was USD1.47bn (about RMB10.4bn), down 22% yoy; and EPS came to USD0.93, down 20% yoy. 展望FY23，公司预计货币中性收入增速为低双，表观收入增速低单-中单，与此前预期持平；预计毛利率同减2-2.5pct，主要系更大幅度的降价及折扣组合以清库存，费用增长高单；预计FY23Q2表观收入增长低双，毛利率同减3.5-4pct，将为FY23财年受影响最大的季度，将积极打折淡季产品清理库存。 Nike to continue discounts; it sees 3.5-4ppt lower gross margin in ‘worst’ FYQ2E FY23E guidance: for the current financial year, Nike guides low-double-digit growth in FX-neutral revenue, and low-to-medium-single-digit growth in apparent revenue, unchanged from its previous expectations. It expects gross margin to fall 2-2.5ppt, mainly on a combination of sharper price cuts and discounts to clear inventory, and a high-single-digit rise in cost. The company expects FYQ2E to bear the brunt of the adverse impact in the current financial year; it expects low-double-digit apparent revenue growth and gross margin to narrow 3.5-4ppt. The company said it would actively offer discounts for off-season products to clear inventory. 耐克将继续突显全球产品组合深度和广度，将继续波动管理，持续发挥品牌实力、创新产品渠道等竞争优势。而就中国市场，公司计划推出更加贴合本土需求产品和服务，NIKE数字平台Z世代会员需求增长25%以上；积极布局街舞、滑板等新生代运动领域，通过数字创新升级消费者互动；同时推出中国首家Nike Style零售概念店 – NIKE淮海潮流体验店，未来计划携手战略合作伙伴在更多城市拓展“数字化潮店”。 Business recovery plans: Nike aims to keep harnessing the full extent of its global business network and product portfolio to manage market volatility. It would keep leveraging its competitive advantages such as brand strength and innovative product channels. For its Chinese market, the company plans to launch products and services that align more closely with local consumer requirements. Generation-Z demand on its digital platform has increased by more than 25%, so its efforts will include developing new-generation sports markets such as hip-hop and skateboarding, and upgrading consumer interaction through digital innovation. It opened China’s first Nike Style experience store in Shanghai’s Huaihai Mall recently and plans to tie up with strategic partners to launch more of these digitally trendy stores in other cities. 我们认为，全球经济形势及通胀影响逐步显现，海外需求不确定性增强同时NIKE或进入清库存周期，短期或影响终端折扣及上游供应链订单，但NIKE凭借品牌韧性及产品深度，或有积极调整效果显现；就中国市场，李宁安踏步等国牌相对优势延续，面对阿迪大幅衰退及NIKE缓慢恢复，或继续加速品牌向上及产品升级，目前在商品管理及渠道运营等方面迅速补齐，有望加速份额提升。 China brands could gain market share on favorable relative positioning We believe that the impact of inflation is gradually emerging amid global economic conditions, while foreign demand uncertainties are increasing. With Nike entering an inventory clearance cycle, short-term impacts could include terminal market discounts and effects on upstream supply chain orders. It is possible that the brand might weather these effects with its brand resilience and product traction. Meanwhile, we expect China’s national brands, such as Li Ning, Anta and Xtep, to retain their favorable relative market positioning. In the face of adidas’s sharp decline and NIKE’s slow recovery, the Chinese brands could accelerate brand and product upgrades. They have quickly addressed weaknesses in the areas of merchandise management and channel operations, and could gain from market share growth. 投资建议/Investment Ideas 【建议关注：李宁、安踏体育、特步国际、361度】 Stock ideas: Li Ning (2331 HK, BUY), Anta Sports (2020 HK, BUY), Xtep International (1368 HK, BUY), 361 Degrees International (1361 HK, BUY). 风险提示：全球疫情反复致终端零售不及预期；供应链问题持续；行业原材料价格波动上升、人力成本高增等。 Risks include: terminal retail performance falling below expectations as a result of persistent global pandemic resurgence; persistent supply chain issues; sharper volatility in raw material prices; and labor cost increases. Email: equity@tfisec.com TFI research report website: (pls scan the QR code) 本文件由天风国际证券集团有限公司, 天风国际证券与期货有限公司（证监会中央编号：BAV573）及天风国际资产管理有限公司（证监会中央编号：ASF056）（合称“天风国际集团”）编制，所载资料可能以若干假设为基础，仅供专业投资者作非商业用途及参考之用途，会因经济、市场及其他情况而随时更改而毋须另行通知。任何媒体、网站或个人未经授权不得转载、链接、转贴或以其他方式复制发表本文件及任何内容。已获授权者，在使用本文件或任何内容时必须注明稿件来源于天风国际集团，并承诺遵守相关法例及一切使用的国际惯例，不为任何非法目的或以任何非法方式使用本文件，违者将依法追究相关法律责任。本文件所引用之数据或资料可能得自第三方，天风国际集团将尽可能确认资料来源之可靠性，但天风国际集团并不对第三方所提供数据或资料之准确性负责。且天风国际集团不会就本文件所载任何资料、预测及／或意见的公平性、准确性、时限性、完整性或正确性，以及任何该等预测及／或意见所依据的基准作出任何明文或暗示的保证、陈述、担保或承诺而负责或承担任何法律责任。本文件中如有类似前瞻性陈述之内容，此等内容或陈述不得视为对任何将来表现之保证，且应注意实际情况或发展可能与该等陈述有重大落差。本文件并非及不应被视为邀约、招揽、邀请、建议买卖任何投资产品或投资决策之依据，亦不应被诠释为专业意见。阅览本文件的人士或在作出任何投资决策前，应完全了解其风险以及有关法律、赋税及会计的特点及后果，并根据个人的情况决定投资是否切合个人的投资目标，以及能否承担有关风险，必要时应寻求适当的专业意见。投资涉及风险。敬请投资者注意，证券及投资的价值可升亦可跌，过往的表现不一定可以预示日后的表现。在若干国家，传阅及分派本文件的方式可能受法律或规例所限制。获取本文件的人士须知悉及遵守该等限制。 阅读原文 立即开户

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