半导体——半导体设备零部件:小而美子赛道组成数百亿美元市场,国产化尚有大空间

（以下内容从天风证券《半导体——半导体设备零部件:小而美子赛道组成数百亿美元市场,国产化尚有大空间》研报附件原文摘录）
　　China Semiconductors 半导体设备零部件：小而美子赛道组成数百亿美元市场，国产化尚有大空间 Equipment parts: tens-of-billion-USD market holds niche segment potential for Chinese manufacturers 投资要点/Investment Thesis 投资要点/Investment Thesis 1. 半导体设备零部件细分种类多，在半导体设备中价值占比高 1）从产业链上来看，半导体设备零部件处于偏上游的位置。按照各类零部件在设备上的不同功能，可其大致分为机械加工件类、物料传送类、电气类、真空类、气液输送类、光学类、热管理类等。 2）半导体设备零部件是半导体设备厂商最主要的营业成本来源，在半导体设备厂商营业成本中占90%左右，我们测算占半导体设备总价值量50%左右。 Myriad parts categories: equipment components dominate the value equation ·Supply chain upstream: roughly by function, the parts categories are mechanical processing, material transfer, electrical, vacuum, gas-liquid conveying, optical and thermal management. ·Main operating cost factor: parts account for about 90% of operating cost for semiconductor equipment manufacturers. Our estimates show that they comprise about 50% of the value of semiconductor equipment. 2. 半导体设备零部件行业中国外厂商占据头部地位，国产化空间大 1）半导体零部件行业中国外厂商占据头部位置，国产率整体较低。根据芯谋研究，目前石英、喷淋头、边缘环等零部件国产化率达到10%以上，射频发生器、MFC、机械臂等零部件的国产化率在1%-5%，而阀门、静电卡盘、测量仪表等零部件的国产化率不足1%。 2）我们预测半导体设备零部件的全球市场规模可达数百亿美元，中国大陆超百亿美元。我们预测中国大陆半导体设备零部件市场2022年预期规模为145亿美元，2030年预期市场规模约为180亿美元。 Substitution potential: foreign producers dominate the equipment parts market ·Low Chinese participation: Foreign manufacturers current occupy the leading positions in the parts market and Chinese participation is generally low. Current Chinese production ratios in component markets like quartz, sprinkler heads and edge rings are over 10%, while those of RF generators, MFC and robot arms are 1-5%, with valves, electrostatic chucks and measuring instruments below 1%, according to ICwise’s research. ·We forecast a global semiconductor equipment components market of tens of billions USD, with China contributing over USD10bn. We believe China’s semiconductor equipment components market will amount to USD14.5bn in 2022E and about USD18bn by 2030E. 3.半导体产能向国内转移，国内厂商“横向”发展系机遇所在 1）半导体行业高景气，产能不断向国内转移。 2）复盘海外龙头公司成长路径。1）从短期看：在单一赛道夯实产品竞争力，是后续发展的基础；2）从中期看：横向拓展产品种类、纵向（部分）开拓下游应用是持续发展的两条路径，通过业务版图扩张，公司业绩天花板得以重塑；3）从长期看：“横+纵”向协同发力是持续成长的源动力。 Production capacity shift to China; horizontal growth in Chinese market ·Booming semiconductor industry: production capacities shifting toward China. ·Review the growth path of overseas leading companies: - Short term: focusing product competitiveness onto a single segment for better future growth potential. - Medium term: either horizontal expansion of product types or vertical (partial) growth of downstream applications would lead to sustainable development. Business expansion would redefine the company’s performance ceiling. - Long term: horizontal and vertical growth synergy to bring sustainable growth. 3）横或纵向拓展业务版图是国内公司发展的必经之路。从国内公司现状来看，国内公司目前大多数仍处于发展的第一阶段，业务较为单一且整体体量较小，因此短期内借国产替代的东风提升拳头产品核心竞争力是第一要务；长期来看，横/纵（部分）向拓展业务版图是发展的必经之路。 Chinese companies’ growth map: horizontal or vertical expansion is necessary Observing the current positions of Chinese companies, we see that most are in the first stage of development, marked by a single business and small volume. Their first priority in the short term is to leverage the substitution trend to improve core competencies and competitive products, in our view. In the longer term, we believe the only way to grow is to expand their business presence either horizontally or vertically (partially). 4）横向拓展以发挥国产商家后发优势。海外厂商先发优势明显，Know how经验积累十分重要，国内公司很难能够在后发的情况下做成某一产品的绝对龙头，同时仅有部分赛道公司可实现由下而上的纵向拓展。我们认为横向拓展业务品类是国内设备零部件公司发展的必要途径，充分发挥后发优势。 Horizontal expansion plays to Chinese companies’ latecomer advantages Foreign producers’ first-mover advantages include know-how accumulation and experience. It would be difficult for late-arriving Chinese manufacturers to become absolute leader of a product. In addition, only companies in certain segments would be able to achieve vertical expansion from the bottom up. We believe horizontal expansion of business categories is a necessary growth direction for Chinese equipment parts makers. This would play to their advantages as industry latecomers. 投资建议/Investment Ideas 投资建议 随着半导体行业不断向中国大陆转移，国内半导体设备零部件厂商迎来新机遇。我们看好国内厂商在单一赛道夯实产品竞争力后，拓张业务版图，重塑业绩天花板。建议关注： （1）正帆科技：工艺介质系统先行者，装备+材料+服务打造核心竞争力 （2）江丰电子：靶材国产替代龙头，持续研发促技术突破 （3）北方华创：业绩持续高增长，设备品类加速扩张 （4）新莱应材：覆盖医药+泛半导体+食品包装，三大业务市场前景广阔 （5）华亚智能：下游订单高需求，公司收入利润规模继续高增长 （6）神工股份：轻掺硅片厚积薄发，电极材料国产替代加速 （7）英杰电气：业绩稳定上升，新增订单全行业增长 （8）富创精密：拥有多种技术工艺和先进技术，业绩呈上涨趋势 Stock focus As semiconductor capacity shifts toward China, this creates opportunities for Chinese semiconductor equipment parts producers. We anticipate that they will expand their business presence and recalibrate the market ceiling after consolidating their segmental product competitiveness. We would consider the following stocks: ·Shanghai Gentech (688596 CH, BUY): pioneer of process media systems, consolidating equipment, materials and services to enhance core competitiveness. ·NAURA Technology (002371 CH, BUY): high performance growth and expanding equipment categories. ·Kunshan Kinglai (300260 CH, BUY): covers medical, pan-semiconductor and food packaging; these three major businesses hold rosy prospects. Other market players: not rated Konfoong Materials (300666 CH): substitution player in target materials; R&D focus. Suzhou Huaya Intelligence (003043 CH): downstream order demand; revenue and profit growth. Thinkon Semiconductor (688233 CH): lightly doped silicon wafers; gearing up for import substitution in electrode materials. Sichuan Injet (300820 CH): order growth on industry growth. Shenyang Fortune Precision (not listed): various tech processes and advanced technologies. 风险提示：海内外疫情反复风险、研发成果不及预期、下游需求不及预期、客户认证进度不及预期 Risks include: pandemic resurgence in China and other countries; worse-than-expected R&D outcomes; less-than-expected downstream demand; slower-than-expected pace in customer certifications. 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