珠海冠宇:消费电芯国产替代弄潮儿,户储加持
（以下内容从天风证券《珠海冠宇:消费电芯国产替代弄潮儿,户储加持》研报附件原文摘录）
Zhuhai CosMX Battery (688772 CH) 消费电芯国产替代弄潮儿，户储加持 Initiating coverage: consumer battery cell import substitution cycle buoyed by home energy storage BUY (Initiation) 投资要点/Investment Thesis 投资要点/Investment Thesis 消费电芯市场看国产替代，动力储能市场看细分赛道甄选 消费电芯市场增速放缓，看点在于国产替代。消费电池系千亿级成熟市场，未来预计年增速在个位数。因此，日韩头部企业逐步转向动力电池，我们认为或给国内企业带来突破良机。2019年到2021年，日韩头部企业如三星SDI、LG新能源合计份额从32.5%下降到15.9%。同期，珠海冠宇份额从20.9%提升至27.2%。 Substitution trend spurs consumer battery cell market; segment selection is key Amid slowing growth in consumer battery cells, import substitution provides an impetus. Consumer batteries are a mature market worth hundreds ofbns RMB and we expect to see single-digit annual growth rates in the future. This explains why Japanese and South Korean market leaders are turning to the power battery business. We believe this brings breakthrough opportunities for Chinese companies. The combined market share of Japanese and Korean leaders Samsung SDI and LG Energy Solutions (LGES) dropped from 32.5% to 15.9% from 2019 to 2021, while that of COSMX rose from 20.9% to 27.2%. 动力&储能处于高速增长期，但竞争激烈，机会或在细分赛道如户储。动力&储能电池市场空间达万亿，21-25年CAGR为40%+，故企业众多，竞争激烈，国内有宁德、比亚迪、中航等，海外有松下、LGES、SK On等。与此同时，储能下户储市场增速更高且盈利更高，系蓝海市场。 The power and energy battery markets are growing fast and competition is intense. We see opportunities in the home storage segment. We believe the power and energy battery markets will be worth trillions of RMB, with a potential CAGR of above 40% over 2021-25E. This highly competitive market has numerous veteran players: Chinese names include CATL, BYD and AVIC, and foreign names include Panasonic, LGES and SK On. We believe home battery storage represents a blue ocean segment, marked by higher growth and higher profitability. 公司概况：全球领先的消费电池企业，动力、储能布局中 历经二十余年发展，公司已成为消费电池第一梯队企业。公司2021年实现收入103亿元，其中笔电68亿元，手机27亿元，笔电/手机市场份额为27.2%/ 6.8%，全球排名第2/5。公司笔电类客户涵盖惠普、联想、戴尔、华硕、微软等，基本实现头部客户全覆盖；手机类客户有华为、OPPO、小米、联想、中兴、VIVO、苹果、三星。 公司动力储能处于起量期，动力下游系启停、电摩，储能下游系户储等。 COSMX: global consumer battery leader; power and energy battery restructure Over 20 years in the business has led to its status as one of the consumer battery market’s first-tier players. COSMX generated revenue of RMB10.3bn in 2021, including RMB6.8bn from laptop and RMB2.7bn from mobile phone batteries. It holds laptop/mobile phone batteries’ global market shares of 27.2/6.8%, making it the 2nd/5th largest player in these segments. Its notebook customers include global A-listers HP, Lenovo, Dell, Asus and Microsoft; while its mobile phone customers include Huawei, OPPO, Xiaomi, Lenovo, ZTE, VIVO, Apple and Samsung. Meanwhile, COSMX is starting out in the power and energy battery businesses; downstream applications for power batteries include start-stop systems and e-bikes, while those for energy batteries include home energy storage systems. 核心看点：进军苹果供应链加速国产替代，甄选户储赛道实现差异化竞争 消费电芯产品力匹敌ATL，突破苹果加速国产替代。对比公司和消费电芯龙头ATL，我们发现主要差距在于收入规模，盈利能力、产品性能已接近。随着公司突破叠片工艺，进军苹果、三星供应链，我们预计公司和ATL收入差距有望进一步收窄。 Current drivers: entry to Apple’s supply chain accelerates import substitution business; competitive differentiation in home energy storage segment COSMX’s consumer battery cells are comparable with those of ATL, while penetration of Apple’s supply chain aids its import substitution business. We find that COSMX’s biggest difference from consumer battery cell leader ATL is in revenue scale, while its profitability and product performance are on par. With COSMX having achieved breakthroughs in mastering the lamination process and penetrating the supply chains of Apple and Samsung, we expect its revenue gap with ATL to narrow. 动力市场从启停切入，储能市场优选户储赛道。公司动力市场选择从启停切入，是权衡自身优劣势的明智之举。此外，公司表示当前储能业务下游主要系家庭储能电池和通讯储能电池，希望未来延伸至电力储能电池上。此外，公司已规划重庆年产15GWh生产线，主要配套储能电池。 Gaining a foothold in the power battery market with start-stop systems and opting for the home use segment within the energy storage market. The company entered the power battery market with start-stop systems, a wise move that has weighed its advantages and disadvantages. COSMX has said that in the current market, the main downstream applications for energy batteries are home storage systems and communication devices, adding that it hopes to expand to power batteries in the future. The company also plans to add a production line with 15GWh annual capacity in Chongqing to support its energy battery business. 准确的战略布局+强大的技术研发实力是公司长远发展的基石。公司07年便聚焦于聚合物软包锂电池业务，07-15年迎来了消费电子大年，后续消费电子增速放缓，致力于替代海外，目前布局动力&储能业务。此外公司重研发，董事长徐延铭先生、董事付小虎先生和李俊义先生均技术出发，从事锂电行业超20年。 Long-term thinking at the top is reflecting in the company’s precise segmental market positioning and tech R&D strength. Back in 2007, polymer soft-pack lithium batteries were its main business, accompanied by a big push for consumer electronics over 2007-15. Subsequently, on a growth slowdown in consumer electronics, it committed to the import substitution business and this led to the current restructure toward power and energy batteries. COSMX also focuses on R&D, with Chairman Xu Yanming and directors Fu Xiaohu and Li Junyi being tech experts with over 20 years of lithium battery experience. 投资建议/Investment Ideas 我们预计公司22-24年归母净利润分别为2.3/12.7/15.1亿元，考虑股权激励费用3.2、1.6、0.8亿元。按照可比估值法，我们给予公司23年35XPE，目标价39.6元，首次覆盖，给予“买入”评级。 Valuation and risks We expect net profit of RMB230m/1.27bn/1.51bn in 2022/23/24E, on factoring in equity incentive expenses of RMB320m/160m/80m. Our comparative valuation provides the company with a PE of 35x in 2023E, with our target price at RMB39.60. Hence, we initiate coverage with a BUY rating. 风险提示：下游市场需求不及预期，产能建设不及预期，动力、储能电池业务继续亏损风险，原材料价格波动风险，股价波动风险 Risks include: less downstream market demand than expected; weaker capacity ramp-ups than expected; persistent losses in the power cell and energy cell storage businesses; raw material price fluctuations; and share price volatility. 以下为研报节选，查看更多请联系天风国际销售团队或访问天风国际研报网页。 The following is an extract. For the full report, please contact our sales team or visit the TFI report website. Email: equity@tfisec.com TFI research report website: (pls scan the QR code) 本文件由天风国际证券集团有限公司, 天风国际证券与期货有限公司（证监会中央编号：BAV573）及天风国际资产管理有限公司（证监会中央编号：ASF056）（合称“天风国际集团”）编制，所载资料可能以若干假设为基础，仅供专业投资者作非商业用途及参考之用途，会因经济、市场及其他情况而随时更改而毋须另行通知。任何媒体、网站或个人未经授权不得转载、链接、转贴或以其他方式复制发表本文件及任何内容。已获授权者，在使用本文件或任何内容时必须注明稿件来源于天风国际集团，并承诺遵守相关法例及一切使用的国际惯例，不为任何非法目的或以任何非法方式使用本文件，违者将依法追究相关法律责任。本文件所引用之数据或资料可能得自第三方，天风国际集团将尽可能确认资料来源之可靠性，但天风国际集团并不对第三方所提供数据或资料之准确性负责。且天风国际集团不会就本文件所载任何资料、预测及／或意见的公平性、准确性、时限性、完整性或正确性，以及任何该等预测及／或意见所依据的基准作出任何明文或暗示的保证、陈述、担保或承诺而负责或承担任何法律责任。本文件中如有类似前瞻性陈述之内容，此等内容或陈述不得视为对任何将来表现之保证，且应注意实际情况或发展可能与该等陈述有重大落差。本文件并非及不应被视为邀约、招揽、邀请、建议买卖任何投资产品或投资决策之依据，亦不应被诠释为专业意见。阅览本文件的人士或在作出任何投资决策前，应完全了解其风险以及有关法律、赋税及会计的特点及后果，并根据个人的情况决定投资是否切合个人的投资目标，以及能否承担有关风险，必要时应寻求适当的专业意见。投资涉及风险。敬请投资者注意，证券及投资的价值可升亦可跌，过往的表现不一定可以预示日后的表现。在若干国家，传阅及分派本文件的方式可能受法律或规例所限制。获取本文件的人士须知悉及遵守该等限制。 阅读原文 立即开户
Zhuhai CosMX Battery (688772 CH) 消费电芯国产替代弄潮儿，户储加持 Initiating coverage: consumer battery cell import substitution cycle buoyed by home energy storage BUY (Initiation) 投资要点/Investment Thesis 投资要点/Investment Thesis 消费电芯市场看国产替代，动力储能市场看细分赛道甄选 消费电芯市场增速放缓，看点在于国产替代。消费电池系千亿级成熟市场，未来预计年增速在个位数。因此，日韩头部企业逐步转向动力电池，我们认为或给国内企业带来突破良机。2019年到2021年，日韩头部企业如三星SDI、LG新能源合计份额从32.5%下降到15.9%。同期，珠海冠宇份额从20.9%提升至27.2%。 Substitution trend spurs consumer battery cell market; segment selection is key Amid slowing growth in consumer battery cells, import substitution provides an impetus. Consumer batteries are a mature market worth hundreds ofbns RMB and we expect to see single-digit annual growth rates in the future. This explains why Japanese and South Korean market leaders are turning to the power battery business. We believe this brings breakthrough opportunities for Chinese companies. The combined market share of Japanese and Korean leaders Samsung SDI and LG Energy Solutions (LGES) dropped from 32.5% to 15.9% from 2019 to 2021, while that of COSMX rose from 20.9% to 27.2%. 动力&储能处于高速增长期，但竞争激烈，机会或在细分赛道如户储。动力&储能电池市场空间达万亿，21-25年CAGR为40%+，故企业众多，竞争激烈，国内有宁德、比亚迪、中航等，海外有松下、LGES、SK On等。与此同时，储能下户储市场增速更高且盈利更高，系蓝海市场。 The power and energy battery markets are growing fast and competition is intense. We see opportunities in the home storage segment. We believe the power and energy battery markets will be worth trillions of RMB, with a potential CAGR of above 40% over 2021-25E. This highly competitive market has numerous veteran players: Chinese names include CATL, BYD and AVIC, and foreign names include Panasonic, LGES and SK On. We believe home battery storage represents a blue ocean segment, marked by higher growth and higher profitability. 公司概况：全球领先的消费电池企业，动力、储能布局中 历经二十余年发展，公司已成为消费电池第一梯队企业。公司2021年实现收入103亿元，其中笔电68亿元，手机27亿元，笔电/手机市场份额为27.2%/ 6.8%，全球排名第2/5。公司笔电类客户涵盖惠普、联想、戴尔、华硕、微软等，基本实现头部客户全覆盖；手机类客户有华为、OPPO、小米、联想、中兴、VIVO、苹果、三星。 公司动力储能处于起量期，动力下游系启停、电摩，储能下游系户储等。 COSMX: global consumer battery leader; power and energy battery restructure Over 20 years in the business has led to its status as one of the consumer battery market’s first-tier players. COSMX generated revenue of RMB10.3bn in 2021, including RMB6.8bn from laptop and RMB2.7bn from mobile phone batteries. It holds laptop/mobile phone batteries’ global market shares of 27.2/6.8%, making it the 2nd/5th largest player in these segments. Its notebook customers include global A-listers HP, Lenovo, Dell, Asus and Microsoft; while its mobile phone customers include Huawei, OPPO, Xiaomi, Lenovo, ZTE, VIVO, Apple and Samsung. Meanwhile, COSMX is starting out in the power and energy battery businesses; downstream applications for power batteries include start-stop systems and e-bikes, while those for energy batteries include home energy storage systems. 核心看点：进军苹果供应链加速国产替代，甄选户储赛道实现差异化竞争 消费电芯产品力匹敌ATL，突破苹果加速国产替代。对比公司和消费电芯龙头ATL，我们发现主要差距在于收入规模，盈利能力、产品性能已接近。随着公司突破叠片工艺，进军苹果、三星供应链，我们预计公司和ATL收入差距有望进一步收窄。 Current drivers: entry to Apple’s supply chain accelerates import substitution business; competitive differentiation in home energy storage segment COSMX’s consumer battery cells are comparable with those of ATL, while penetration of Apple’s supply chain aids its import substitution business. We find that COSMX’s biggest difference from consumer battery cell leader ATL is in revenue scale, while its profitability and product performance are on par. With COSMX having achieved breakthroughs in mastering the lamination process and penetrating the supply chains of Apple and Samsung, we expect its revenue gap with ATL to narrow. 动力市场从启停切入，储能市场优选户储赛道。公司动力市场选择从启停切入，是权衡自身优劣势的明智之举。此外，公司表示当前储能业务下游主要系家庭储能电池和通讯储能电池，希望未来延伸至电力储能电池上。此外，公司已规划重庆年产15GWh生产线，主要配套储能电池。 Gaining a foothold in the power battery market with start-stop systems and opting for the home use segment within the energy storage market. The company entered the power battery market with start-stop systems, a wise move that has weighed its advantages and disadvantages. COSMX has said that in the current market, the main downstream applications for energy batteries are home storage systems and communication devices, adding that it hopes to expand to power batteries in the future. The company also plans to add a production line with 15GWh annual capacity in Chongqing to support its energy battery business. 准确的战略布局+强大的技术研发实力是公司长远发展的基石。公司07年便聚焦于聚合物软包锂电池业务，07-15年迎来了消费电子大年，后续消费电子增速放缓，致力于替代海外，目前布局动力&储能业务。此外公司重研发，董事长徐延铭先生、董事付小虎先生和李俊义先生均技术出发，从事锂电行业超20年。 Long-term thinking at the top is reflecting in the company’s precise segmental market positioning and tech R&D strength. Back in 2007, polymer soft-pack lithium batteries were its main business, accompanied by a big push for consumer electronics over 2007-15. Subsequently, on a growth slowdown in consumer electronics, it committed to the import substitution business and this led to the current restructure toward power and energy batteries. COSMX also focuses on R&D, with Chairman Xu Yanming and directors Fu Xiaohu and Li Junyi being tech experts with over 20 years of lithium battery experience. 投资建议/Investment Ideas 我们预计公司22-24年归母净利润分别为2.3/12.7/15.1亿元，考虑股权激励费用3.2、1.6、0.8亿元。按照可比估值法，我们给予公司23年35XPE，目标价39.6元，首次覆盖，给予“买入”评级。 Valuation and risks We expect net profit of RMB230m/1.27bn/1.51bn in 2022/23/24E, on factoring in equity incentive expenses of RMB320m/160m/80m. Our comparative valuation provides the company with a PE of 35x in 2023E, with our target price at RMB39.60. Hence, we initiate coverage with a BUY rating. 风险提示：下游市场需求不及预期，产能建设不及预期，动力、储能电池业务继续亏损风险，原材料价格波动风险，股价波动风险 Risks include: less downstream market demand than expected; weaker capacity ramp-ups than expected; persistent losses in the power cell and energy cell storage businesses; raw material price fluctuations; and share price volatility. 以下为研报节选，查看更多请联系天风国际销售团队或访问天风国际研报网页。 The following is an extract. For the full report, please contact our sales team or visit the TFI report website. Email: equity@tfisec.com TFI research report website: (pls scan the QR code) 本文件由天风国际证券集团有限公司, 天风国际证券与期货有限公司（证监会中央编号：BAV573）及天风国际资产管理有限公司（证监会中央编号：ASF056）（合称“天风国际集团”）编制，所载资料可能以若干假设为基础，仅供专业投资者作非商业用途及参考之用途，会因经济、市场及其他情况而随时更改而毋须另行通知。任何媒体、网站或个人未经授权不得转载、链接、转贴或以其他方式复制发表本文件及任何内容。已获授权者，在使用本文件或任何内容时必须注明稿件来源于天风国际集团，并承诺遵守相关法例及一切使用的国际惯例，不为任何非法目的或以任何非法方式使用本文件，违者将依法追究相关法律责任。本文件所引用之数据或资料可能得自第三方，天风国际集团将尽可能确认资料来源之可靠性，但天风国际集团并不对第三方所提供数据或资料之准确性负责。且天风国际集团不会就本文件所载任何资料、预测及／或意见的公平性、准确性、时限性、完整性或正确性，以及任何该等预测及／或意见所依据的基准作出任何明文或暗示的保证、陈述、担保或承诺而负责或承担任何法律责任。本文件中如有类似前瞻性陈述之内容，此等内容或陈述不得视为对任何将来表现之保证，且应注意实际情况或发展可能与该等陈述有重大落差。本文件并非及不应被视为邀约、招揽、邀请、建议买卖任何投资产品或投资决策之依据，亦不应被诠释为专业意见。阅览本文件的人士或在作出任何投资决策前，应完全了解其风险以及有关法律、赋税及会计的特点及后果，并根据个人的情况决定投资是否切合个人的投资目标，以及能否承担有关风险，必要时应寻求适当的专业意见。投资涉及风险。敬请投资者注意，证券及投资的价值可升亦可跌，过往的表现不一定可以预示日后的表现。在若干国家，传阅及分派本文件的方式可能受法律或规例所限制。获取本文件的人士须知悉及遵守该等限制。 阅读原文 立即开户
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