视源股份:研发立身持续跨界,CVTE剑指全球化布局

（以下内容从天风证券《视源股份:研发立身持续跨界,CVTE剑指全球化布局》研报附件原文摘录）
　　Guangzhou Shiyuan Electronic Technology (002841 CH) 研发立身持续跨界，CVTE剑指全球化布局 Initiating coverage: a global footprint and cross-border R&D capability BUY (Initiation) 投资要点/Investment Thesis 投资要点/Investment Thesis 视源股份跨界能力卓越，现已是多领域龙头。公司核心有三条成长曲线： 1）2005-2015年：电视产业技术升级阶段成为全球液晶电视板卡龙头。该业务21年营收规模达62亿，毛利率在14%左右，为公司现金流业务。 2）2008-2018年：教育信息化1.0时期率先开发出教育交互智能平板，并成为全球龙头，盈利结构改善。 3）2017-至今：企业数字化转型加速，会议交互智能平板放量，与海外教育信息化转型构成公司后续的主要增长点。 Multi-market leader with cross-border capabilities and multiple growth drivers Shiyuan Electronic Technology (aka CVTE) underwent three growth phases: 2005-15: technological upgrades took CVTE to global leadership of the LCD TV board market. It generated 2021 revenue of RMB6.2bn and a gross profit margin of about 14% with healthy cash flow. 2008-18: it was the first to develop educational interactive smart tablets in the education informatization 1.0 era and became a global leader on improving its earnings structure. 2017-present: growth drivers include accelerating enterprise digitalization, the rollout of interactive conferencing smart tablets and foreign education market digitalization. 我们认为视源股份的业务布局用意在于：传统业务液晶显示板卡做大收入，旨在供应稳定现金流，同时积累供应链管理know-how；跨界布局交互智能平板，享受行业高beta的同时增厚利润，目前会议与海外市场预计仍存在较大空间，依托供应链管理与研发能力，公司有望持续受益行业高增红利。同时，持续以公司平台支持创新业务孵化，LED、家电显示模组等新业务有望成为公司新的增长点。 Network buildout: raise LCD revenue, drive cash flow and manage supply chain We believe CVTE’s network buildout aims to: expand revenue from traditional market LCD boards; ensure stable cash flows; and gain expertise in supply chain management. In its cross-border interactive smart tablet business, the company benefits from the industry’s high beta and better profit margins; we see substantial growth potential in the conferencing and foreign markets. With its supply chain management and R&D capabilities, the company would continue to benefit from rising industry profitability. As a platform company, CVTE supports the incubation of innovative businesses and we expect LED, home appliance display modules and other new businesses to become new growth drivers. 看短期，视源股份在21年业绩压制因素有望在22年得到改善，原因在于1）收入端：国内教育业务高单价产品智慧黑板逐步放量，教育业务营收增速有望提升；2）成本端：面板价格持续走低，22年综合毛利率有望改善；3）费用端：21年是人员扩张与渠道建设大年，22年期间费用投入增速有望放缓。 Short term: 2021 performance drag factors likely to ease in 2022E ·Revenue: rising sales volumes of smart blackboards, with high ASPs in the Chinese education market, along with growing revenue from its education business. ·Cost: panel prices would likely remain low but we expect total gross profit margin to increase in 2022E. ·Expenses: 2021 was marked by high personnel expansion and channel construction, suggesting cost of investment would slow down in 2022E. 看中期，海外平板与国内会议市场业务景气度较高。原因在于1）海外教育信息化建设处于市场初期，且多政府明确相关预算充足，有望复制国内信息化1.0发展路径；2）会议市场随着疫情后混合办公模式的逐步推广，会议交互屏需求随着企业认知逐步提升；3）视源股份对比国内外厂商，成本与技术优势明显领先，市场龙头地位有望持续巩固。 Medium term: robust foreign tablet and Chinese conferencing markets ·Foreign education markets are in an early phase of development in the informatization buildout and many governments have sufficient budgets. We expect the company to replicate the Chinese market’s informatization 1.0 growth path. ·Post-pandemic conferencing has reshaped into a mixed-office model, with growing interactive conference screen demand on rising corporate traction. ·Competitive advantages: in comparison with other Chinese and foreign manufacturers, CVTE’s cost and tech advantages would continue to build up. 看长期，研发实力加持下，孵化新业务有望成为新增长极。原因在于1）公司定增投入智能制造工厂，有效保护企业know-how壁垒，在技术研发方面持续领先；2）LED与智慧家电业务初显规模，随着市场规模提升有望持续享受行业红利。 Long term: R&D-driven new business development a new growth driver ·The company’s fixed investment growth in smart manufacturing plants and effective protection of its enterprise knowledge competitive barriers would maintain its technological R&D leadership. ·With the rising scale of the LED and smart home appliance markets, we also expect higher industry profitability. 投资建议/Investment Ideas 盈利预测：我们预计公司2022-2024年营业收入分别为251.52/312.76/375.32亿元，同比增长18.50%、24.35%、20.00%；我们测算公司2022-2024年归母净利润分别为26.57/32.23/37.53亿元，对应17.89/14.75/12.67倍PE。考虑公司业务高盈利增速以及高盈利质量（扣非净利率），及41.28倍历史估值中枢，给予22年24倍PE作为目标估值，对应市值638亿，目标价91.62元。首次覆盖，给予“买入”评级。 Valuation and risks We expect revenue to arrive at RMB25.15/31.28/37.53bn in 2022/23/24E, up 18.50/ 24.35/20.00% yoy, with net profit arriving at RMB2.66bn/3.22bn/3.75bn, corresponding to PEs of 17.89/14.75/12.67x. Factoring CVTE’s high profit growth rates and high-quality profitability (based on net profit margin after non-recurring items), and its historical median valuation of 41.28x, we estimate target PE at 24x in 2022E, which corresponds to market cap of RMB63.8bn and a target price of RMB91.62. We initiate coverage of the company with a BUY rating. 风险提示：宏观经济与政策风险，人力成本上升风险，核心原材料涨价风险，竞争环境变化风险，测算具有一定主观性。 Risks include: macroeconomic and policy risks; rising labor costs; rising prices of key raw materials; and changes in the competitive environment. Note the inherent subjectivity in research analysis. Email: equity@tfisec.com TFI research report website: (pls scan the QR code) 本文件由天风国际证券集团有限公司, 天风国际证券与期货有限公司（证监会中央编号：BAV573）及天风国际资产管理有限公司（证监会中央编号：ASF056）（合称“天风国际集团”）编制，所载资料可能以若干假设为基础，仅供专业投资者作非商业用途及参考之用途，会因经济、市场及其他情况而随时更改而毋须另行通知。任何媒体、网站或个人未经授权不得转载、链接、转贴或以其他方式复制发表本文件及任何内容。已获授权者，在使用本文件或任何内容时必须注明稿件来源于天风国际集团，并承诺遵守相关法例及一切使用的国际惯例，不为任何非法目的或以任何非法方式使用本文件，违者将依法追究相关法律责任。本文件所引用之数据或资料可能得自第三方，天风国际集团将尽可能确认资料来源之可靠性，但天风国际集团并不对第三方所提供数据或资料之准确性负责。且天风国际集团不会就本文件所载任何资料、预测及／或意见的公平性、准确性、时限性、完整性或正确性，以及任何该等预测及／或意见所依据的基准作出任何明文或暗示的保证、陈述、担保或承诺而负责或承担任何法律责任。本文件中如有类似前瞻性陈述之内容，此等内容或陈述不得视为对任何将来表现之保证，且应注意实际情况或发展可能与该等陈述有重大落差。本文件并非及不应被视为邀约、招揽、邀请、建议买卖任何投资产品或投资决策之依据，亦不应被诠释为专业意见。阅览本文件的人士或在作出任何投资决策前，应完全了解其风险以及有关法律、赋税及会计的特点及后果，并根据个人的情况决定投资是否切合个人的投资目标，以及能否承担有关风险，必要时应寻求适当的专业意见。投资涉及风险。敬请投资者注意，证券及投资的价值可升亦可跌，过往的表现不一定可以预示日后的表现。在若干国家，传阅及分派本文件的方式可能受法律或规例所限制。获取本文件的人士须知悉及遵守该等限制。 阅读原文 立即开户

点此查看微信公众号原文全部内容>>

大部分微信公众号研报本站已有pdf详细完整版：https://www.wkzk.com/report/（可搜索研报标题关键词或机构名称查询原报告）