外卖行业:美团外卖三问三答
（以下内容从天风证券《外卖行业:美团外卖三问三答》研报附件原文摘录）
China online food delivery industry 美团外卖三问三答 Tianfeng Q&A on Meituan (3690 HK, BUY) 投资要点/Investment Thesis 投资要点/Investment Thesis 消费大盘增速放缓，外卖发展怎么看？ 疫情后我国消费大盘增速放缓。2021年我国餐饮业相较于2019年同期增速落在2%~5%区间，较2019年整体维持10%以上增速出现明显回落。与此同时餐饮业占社零占比稳定，餐饮业增速的放缓实际上代表的是整体社零增速的放缓，即消费大盘增速放缓。但外卖渗透率与月活持续提升。头部平台美团月活持续上升，五年内网上外卖用户使用率近乎翻倍。 As consumer market growth slows, how do you view prospects for the F&B delivery industry? China’s consumer market growth has slowed in the wake of the pandemic. The F&B industry grew 2-5% in 2021 vs 2019, significantly behind the above 10% consumer market growth rate in 2019. The proportion of restaurants in the consumer retail market has been stable, so slowing growth at restaurants correlate with a slowdown in the consumer retail market, i.e. it points to slowing consumer market growth. However, the penetration rate of F&B delivery continues to rise along with monthly activity. Online platform leader Meituan records rising monthly user activity and its utilization rate has nearly doubled over five years. 复盘日本，消费大盘增速放缓情况下，中食占比持续提升。中食是指消费者在销售店以外的场景就餐，包括在便利店、超市等零售店购买后直接食用，或者用微波炉加热或倒入热水即可食用的食物。1990-2020，尽管经济下行、餐饮增速放缓，日本中食占比逆势提升从3.4%逐步提高到10.1%，中食占比稳步提高。我们认为，我国人口、面积均远超日本，若要满足同等需求，便利店需要相当于日本3-5倍的覆盖能力。溢出需求将由外卖平台合理化承接。同时，远期来看，外卖对“吃”的渗透率仍处在早期阶段，仍远未到达天花板。 Japan market: convenience food segment rising in proportion despite slowing growth in the broader consumer market. Convenience food refers to food that is consumed outside of meal service eateries, including food eaten directly after purchase from retail points such as convenience stores and supermarkets, or after heating up in microwave ovens or immersed in hot water. Over 1990 to 2020, despite the economic downturn and slowing catering growth, the proportion of convenience food in the Japan consumer market bucked the trend to increase from 3.4% to 10.1%. In order for China to have the same demand ratio, the country’s convenience store capacity coverage would need to be 3-5x of Japan’s, factoring in China’s far larger population and land area. We believe that online delivery platforms will fill the demand overflow. Taking a long-term view, we see that their penetration of the meal market is in an early stage of growth, which suggests vast market potential. 单量：两种方法测算，预测2025年有望达到8000万单 一天一亿单的实现有赖于用户每月交易笔数及活跃用户渗透率的双提升。2021年美团APP的MAU为3.74亿，假设外卖用户占比达到70%，美团外卖MAU为2.7亿，测算得每月交易笔数为3.9单，头部10%高活跃用户每月交易10单。在3亿用户规模的情况下，达到每天一亿单的目标，一般用户每月交易笔数需要提升至10单。我们认为，美团外卖订单量主要增长空间在于三线及以下城市的渗透率、用户平均每月外卖频次，尤其是高活跃用户渗透率和外卖频次。 Meituan: we forecast order volume at 80m per day in 2025E, based on two metrics In order to realize a volume of 100m orders per day, monthly user transactions and the penetration of active users would need to increase. Meituan’s app garnered 374m monthly active users (MAU) in 2021. Assuming that 70% of these are food delivery users, we arrive at 270m food delivery MAU at Meituan. Our estimates show that each user makes 3.9 transactions per month, while each of the top 10% most active users accounts for 10 orders per month. For its food delivery MAU to rise to 300m and thus achieve 100m daily transactions, Meituan would need to achieve 10 transactions per month per user. We believe that Meituan’s food delivery volume growth drivers are: (1) penetration of third-tier and below cities; and (2) average user monthly delivery frequency, especially the penetration rate and order frequency of highly active users. 两种方式测算2025E单量空间：从用户数、高频用户数、订单频次提升的角度，测算2025E订单突破量有望超8000万；对标日本中食渗透率，中性假设下2025E美团外卖日均单量或达7568-8481万单。 We calculated Meituan’s potential 2025E daily order volume using two metrics: (1) based on user numbers, most active user numbers and order frequency increase, we arrived at an estimate of over 80m daily orders in 2025E. (2) Benchmarking the Chinese market against the penetration rate of convenience food in Japan under neutral assumptions, we estimate Meituan’s average daily orders at 75.68-84.81m in 2025E. UE：AOV如何变化？社保、补贴率、纾困政策、佣金率影响几何？ AOV：2020~2021，美团整体AOV有小幅提升，但整体企稳；从同比来看，美团AOV的同比趋势亦与CPI长期趋势靠近。未来外卖单均价格提升具有长期驱动力，但考虑到低线城市消费增长（AOV 相对较低）、低客单价商品比例提升，例如“拼好饭”等模式的铺开可能冲抵一部分整体 AOV 提升。 UE: Meituan’s AOV trends: what are the impacts of commission rates, subsidy rate, rebate policy and social insurance coverage? ·AOV: Meituan’s average daily order volume (AOV) rose slightly from 2020 to 2021, although it remained stable. On a yoy basis, Meituan’s AOV trend mirrors the long-term CPI trend. Average delivery order price growth drivers would require long-term drivers, but considering consumption market growth in lower-tier cities (lower AOV) and a rising proportion of the low-cost per-order segment, initiatives such as Pinhaofan ("sharing a good meal") could support an overall AOV increase. 费率：实际佣金率整体变化有限。综合比较而言，对于近距离、25元以上订单，实际佣金率有所下降，但整体降幅有限（且考虑到该测算尚未考虑时间段计费情况），但对于远距离的订单来看，佣金率实际上有一定程度提升，这对于改善平台佣金率有提振作用；考虑到佣金率构成绝大多数为骑手补贴（平台抽佣为5.8%，相对固定），我们认为新规则的推行对降低骑手收入及骑手成本之间的差额、缩小平台1P模式下亏损具有正面作用。 Commission rates vary only slightly across the market: our comprehensive comparison shows that actual commission rates have decreased for close-proximity orders of above RMB25, but the decrease is limited for total orders (note that time-period billing is excluded from this calculation). For farther orders, actual commission rates have increased to an extent, boosting total commission rates in the platform. With the platform commission rate relatively fixed at 5.8% and considering that the rider fee makes up the largest portion by far, we believe the implementation of new regulations would have a positive impact in reducing the difference between rider income and rider cost, as well as narrowing the platform’s 1P losses. 纾困政策：中性假设下对收入或有-2%的影响。在实际情况下，不排除美团可能采取与2020Q1相似的措施，如佣金返还后商户可用于线上营销、流量红包等，并且通过控制补贴等方式进行对冲，由此实际情况下美团外卖OP所受影响较大概率处于预测区间的相对较小值。 Rebate policy: we estimate that this would have a -2% impact on income under our neutral scenario. In actual market situations, we do not rule out the possibility that Meituan could employ practices similar to those in 20Q1. For example, commission rebates to merchants could be used for online marketing and traffic flow bonuses; and it could hedge these via subsidy management and other ways. As a result, it is highly likely that the impact on Meituan’s delivery OP in actual market conditions would amount to a relatively low value within our forecast range. 社保：我们进行了分城市测算，认为到2025年，社均基数下社保单均为0.23元，1P单均为0.52元；最低基数下社保单均为0.21元,1P单均为0.31元。我们认为：1）单均UE影响测算相对较为有限；2）实际操作过程中，考虑到美团骑手往往与代理商签订协议，实际成本可由代理商/美团共同承担；3）伴随费率透明化机制实行，佣金/骑手成本变的更为透明，骑手成本的上升或可由商户分摊一部分。 Social insurance coverage: our city-by-city calculations show that for the average user base, social insurance cost per order could arrive at RMB0.23, with first-party (1P) direct orders at RMB0.52 by 2025E; and for the lowest-tier user base, social insurance cost could reach RMB0.21 per order, with 1P orders at RMB0.31. We believe that: ·The average order UE impact is relatively limited. ·In actual market operations, considering that Meituan riders often sign agreements with agents, the actual cost could be shared between the agent and Meituan. ·As the implementation mechanism of rates is transparent, commission/rider cost has become more transparent, so it could share the increase in rider cost with merchants. OP：不考虑提高抽佣，仅考虑广告Take Rate提高及抽佣率降低，即使考虑社保，每单一元钱盈利整体实现可能性较大。 OP: we have not considered commission rate increases in our numbers; instead, we have considered only take rate increases and commission rate decreases. Thus, even when we factor in social insurance cost, the company is looking at higher profit potential in terms of RMB contribution per order. 风险提示：测算具有一定主观性，仅供参考、平台限制抽佣政策进一步推行、疫情反复，冲击外卖、到店业务收入、反垄断监管进一步强化、新业务亏损进一步加剧 Risks include: further implementation of policy commission curbs on platforms; pandemic resurgence affecting F&B delivery and dine-in revenues; tightening anti-monopoly regulations; and deepening losses in new business segments. Note: our estimates are subjective and for reference only. 以下为研报节选，查看更多请联系天风国际销售团队或访问天风国际研报网页。 The following is an extract. For the full report, please contact our sales team or visit the TFI report website. 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China online food delivery industry 美团外卖三问三答 Tianfeng Q&A on Meituan (3690 HK, BUY) 投资要点/Investment Thesis 投资要点/Investment Thesis 消费大盘增速放缓，外卖发展怎么看？ 疫情后我国消费大盘增速放缓。2021年我国餐饮业相较于2019年同期增速落在2%~5%区间，较2019年整体维持10%以上增速出现明显回落。与此同时餐饮业占社零占比稳定，餐饮业增速的放缓实际上代表的是整体社零增速的放缓，即消费大盘增速放缓。但外卖渗透率与月活持续提升。头部平台美团月活持续上升，五年内网上外卖用户使用率近乎翻倍。 As consumer market growth slows, how do you view prospects for the F&B delivery industry? China’s consumer market growth has slowed in the wake of the pandemic. The F&B industry grew 2-5% in 2021 vs 2019, significantly behind the above 10% consumer market growth rate in 2019. The proportion of restaurants in the consumer retail market has been stable, so slowing growth at restaurants correlate with a slowdown in the consumer retail market, i.e. it points to slowing consumer market growth. However, the penetration rate of F&B delivery continues to rise along with monthly activity. Online platform leader Meituan records rising monthly user activity and its utilization rate has nearly doubled over five years. 复盘日本，消费大盘增速放缓情况下，中食占比持续提升。中食是指消费者在销售店以外的场景就餐，包括在便利店、超市等零售店购买后直接食用，或者用微波炉加热或倒入热水即可食用的食物。1990-2020，尽管经济下行、餐饮增速放缓，日本中食占比逆势提升从3.4%逐步提高到10.1%，中食占比稳步提高。我们认为，我国人口、面积均远超日本，若要满足同等需求，便利店需要相当于日本3-5倍的覆盖能力。溢出需求将由外卖平台合理化承接。同时，远期来看，外卖对“吃”的渗透率仍处在早期阶段，仍远未到达天花板。 Japan market: convenience food segment rising in proportion despite slowing growth in the broader consumer market. Convenience food refers to food that is consumed outside of meal service eateries, including food eaten directly after purchase from retail points such as convenience stores and supermarkets, or after heating up in microwave ovens or immersed in hot water. Over 1990 to 2020, despite the economic downturn and slowing catering growth, the proportion of convenience food in the Japan consumer market bucked the trend to increase from 3.4% to 10.1%. In order for China to have the same demand ratio, the country’s convenience store capacity coverage would need to be 3-5x of Japan’s, factoring in China’s far larger population and land area. We believe that online delivery platforms will fill the demand overflow. Taking a long-term view, we see that their penetration of the meal market is in an early stage of growth, which suggests vast market potential. 单量：两种方法测算，预测2025年有望达到8000万单 一天一亿单的实现有赖于用户每月交易笔数及活跃用户渗透率的双提升。2021年美团APP的MAU为3.74亿，假设外卖用户占比达到70%，美团外卖MAU为2.7亿，测算得每月交易笔数为3.9单，头部10%高活跃用户每月交易10单。在3亿用户规模的情况下，达到每天一亿单的目标，一般用户每月交易笔数需要提升至10单。我们认为，美团外卖订单量主要增长空间在于三线及以下城市的渗透率、用户平均每月外卖频次，尤其是高活跃用户渗透率和外卖频次。 Meituan: we forecast order volume at 80m per day in 2025E, based on two metrics In order to realize a volume of 100m orders per day, monthly user transactions and the penetration of active users would need to increase. Meituan’s app garnered 374m monthly active users (MAU) in 2021. Assuming that 70% of these are food delivery users, we arrive at 270m food delivery MAU at Meituan. Our estimates show that each user makes 3.9 transactions per month, while each of the top 10% most active users accounts for 10 orders per month. For its food delivery MAU to rise to 300m and thus achieve 100m daily transactions, Meituan would need to achieve 10 transactions per month per user. We believe that Meituan’s food delivery volume growth drivers are: (1) penetration of third-tier and below cities; and (2) average user monthly delivery frequency, especially the penetration rate and order frequency of highly active users. 两种方式测算2025E单量空间：从用户数、高频用户数、订单频次提升的角度，测算2025E订单突破量有望超8000万；对标日本中食渗透率，中性假设下2025E美团外卖日均单量或达7568-8481万单。 We calculated Meituan’s potential 2025E daily order volume using two metrics: (1) based on user numbers, most active user numbers and order frequency increase, we arrived at an estimate of over 80m daily orders in 2025E. (2) Benchmarking the Chinese market against the penetration rate of convenience food in Japan under neutral assumptions, we estimate Meituan’s average daily orders at 75.68-84.81m in 2025E. UE：AOV如何变化？社保、补贴率、纾困政策、佣金率影响几何？ AOV：2020~2021，美团整体AOV有小幅提升，但整体企稳；从同比来看，美团AOV的同比趋势亦与CPI长期趋势靠近。未来外卖单均价格提升具有长期驱动力，但考虑到低线城市消费增长（AOV 相对较低）、低客单价商品比例提升，例如“拼好饭”等模式的铺开可能冲抵一部分整体 AOV 提升。 UE: Meituan’s AOV trends: what are the impacts of commission rates, subsidy rate, rebate policy and social insurance coverage? ·AOV: Meituan’s average daily order volume (AOV) rose slightly from 2020 to 2021, although it remained stable. On a yoy basis, Meituan’s AOV trend mirrors the long-term CPI trend. Average delivery order price growth drivers would require long-term drivers, but considering consumption market growth in lower-tier cities (lower AOV) and a rising proportion of the low-cost per-order segment, initiatives such as Pinhaofan ("sharing a good meal") could support an overall AOV increase. 费率：实际佣金率整体变化有限。综合比较而言，对于近距离、25元以上订单，实际佣金率有所下降，但整体降幅有限（且考虑到该测算尚未考虑时间段计费情况），但对于远距离的订单来看，佣金率实际上有一定程度提升，这对于改善平台佣金率有提振作用；考虑到佣金率构成绝大多数为骑手补贴（平台抽佣为5.8%，相对固定），我们认为新规则的推行对降低骑手收入及骑手成本之间的差额、缩小平台1P模式下亏损具有正面作用。 Commission rates vary only slightly across the market: our comprehensive comparison shows that actual commission rates have decreased for close-proximity orders of above RMB25, but the decrease is limited for total orders (note that time-period billing is excluded from this calculation). For farther orders, actual commission rates have increased to an extent, boosting total commission rates in the platform. With the platform commission rate relatively fixed at 5.8% and considering that the rider fee makes up the largest portion by far, we believe the implementation of new regulations would have a positive impact in reducing the difference between rider income and rider cost, as well as narrowing the platform’s 1P losses. 纾困政策：中性假设下对收入或有-2%的影响。在实际情况下，不排除美团可能采取与2020Q1相似的措施，如佣金返还后商户可用于线上营销、流量红包等，并且通过控制补贴等方式进行对冲，由此实际情况下美团外卖OP所受影响较大概率处于预测区间的相对较小值。 Rebate policy: we estimate that this would have a -2% impact on income under our neutral scenario. In actual market situations, we do not rule out the possibility that Meituan could employ practices similar to those in 20Q1. For example, commission rebates to merchants could be used for online marketing and traffic flow bonuses; and it could hedge these via subsidy management and other ways. As a result, it is highly likely that the impact on Meituan’s delivery OP in actual market conditions would amount to a relatively low value within our forecast range. 社保：我们进行了分城市测算，认为到2025年，社均基数下社保单均为0.23元，1P单均为0.52元；最低基数下社保单均为0.21元,1P单均为0.31元。我们认为：1）单均UE影响测算相对较为有限；2）实际操作过程中，考虑到美团骑手往往与代理商签订协议，实际成本可由代理商/美团共同承担；3）伴随费率透明化机制实行，佣金/骑手成本变的更为透明，骑手成本的上升或可由商户分摊一部分。 Social insurance coverage: our city-by-city calculations show that for the average user base, social insurance cost per order could arrive at RMB0.23, with first-party (1P) direct orders at RMB0.52 by 2025E; and for the lowest-tier user base, social insurance cost could reach RMB0.21 per order, with 1P orders at RMB0.31. We believe that: ·The average order UE impact is relatively limited. ·In actual market operations, considering that Meituan riders often sign agreements with agents, the actual cost could be shared between the agent and Meituan. ·As the implementation mechanism of rates is transparent, commission/rider cost has become more transparent, so it could share the increase in rider cost with merchants. OP：不考虑提高抽佣，仅考虑广告Take Rate提高及抽佣率降低，即使考虑社保，每单一元钱盈利整体实现可能性较大。 OP: we have not considered commission rate increases in our numbers; instead, we have considered only take rate increases and commission rate decreases. Thus, even when we factor in social insurance cost, the company is looking at higher profit potential in terms of RMB contribution per order. 风险提示：测算具有一定主观性，仅供参考、平台限制抽佣政策进一步推行、疫情反复，冲击外卖、到店业务收入、反垄断监管进一步强化、新业务亏损进一步加剧 Risks include: further implementation of policy commission curbs on platforms; pandemic resurgence affecting F&B delivery and dine-in revenues; tightening anti-monopoly regulations; and deepening losses in new business segments. Note: our estimates are subjective and for reference only. 以下为研报节选，查看更多请联系天风国际销售团队或访问天风国际研报网页。 The following is an extract. For the full report, please contact our sales team or visit the TFI report website. Email: equity@tfisec.com TFI research report website: (pls scan the QR code) 本文件由天风国际证券集团有限公司, 天风国际证券与期货有限公司（证监会中央编号：BAV573）及天风国际资产管理有限公司（证监会中央编号：ASF056）（合称“天风国际集团”）编制，所载资料可能以若干假设为基础，仅供专业投资者作非商业用途及参考之用途，会因经济、市场及其他情况而随时更改而毋须另行通知。任何媒体、网站或个人未经授权不得转载、链接、转贴或以其他方式复制发表本文件及任何内容。已获授权者，在使用本文件或任何内容时必须注明稿件来源于天风国际集团，并承诺遵守相关法例及一切使用的国际惯例，不为任何非法目的或以任何非法方式使用本文件，违者将依法追究相关法律责任。本文件所引用之数据或资料可能得自第三方，天风国际集团将尽可能确认资料来源之可靠性，但天风国际集团并不对第三方所提供数据或资料之准确性负责。且天风国际集团不会就本文件所载任何资料、预测及／或意见的公平性、准确性、时限性、完整性或正确性，以及任何该等预测及／或意见所依据的基准作出任何明文或暗示的保证、陈述、担保或承诺而负责或承担任何法律责任。本文件中如有类似前瞻性陈述之内容，此等内容或陈述不得视为对任何将来表现之保证，且应注意实际情况或发展可能与该等陈述有重大落差。本文件并非及不应被视为邀约、招揽、邀请、建议买卖任何投资产品或投资决策之依据，亦不应被诠释为专业意见。阅览本文件的人士或在作出任何投资决策前，应完全了解其风险以及有关法律、赋税及会计的特点及后果，并根据个人的情况决定投资是否切合个人的投资目标，以及能否承担有关风险，必要时应寻求适当的专业意见。投资涉及风险。敬请投资者注意，证券及投资的价值可升亦可跌，过往的表现不一定可以预示日后的表现。在若干国家，传阅及分派本文件的方式可能受法律或规例所限制。获取本文件的人士须知悉及遵守该等限制。 阅读原文 立即开户
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