纺织服装:阿迪达斯下调大中华区预期,利好国牌突围

（以下内容从天风证券《纺织服装:阿迪达斯下调大中华区预期,利好国牌突围》研报附件原文摘录）
　　China Textiles and Apparel 阿迪达斯下调大中华区预期，利好国牌突围 Window of opportunity for Chinese brands as Adidas reduces guidance for Greater China 投资要点/Investment Thesis 投资要点/Investment Thesis 7月26日阿迪达斯发布公告下调2022大中华区预期，主要系Q3开始表现低于预期。此前预计22H2收入持平，但考虑到疫情反复影响，公司调整预期至双位数下降。 大中华区： 剔除汇率影响，公司预计全年营收中到高单位数增长（调前为11%-13%），主要系大中华地区市场营销组合活动受限和持续到年底的清库存需求。公司预计GP margin为49%（调前为50.7%），OP margin为7%(调前为9.4%)，持续经营利润为13亿欧元，约合89.05亿元人民币（调前为18-19亿欧元）。 Greater China: Adidas lowers guidance to a double-digit drop in H2E revenue Adidas (ADDYY US, not rated) announced lower 2022E guidance for its Greater China business on 26 July, mainly due to weaker-than-expected performance from Q3 onwards. It previously expected flat revenue growth in H2E but now guides a double-digit decline on incorporating the impact of pandemic resurgence. Excluding foreign currency exchange effects, Adidas now expects 2022E revenue growth at a mid to high single digit (previously 11-13%), mainly due to marketing constraints in Greater China and the need for inventory clearance through the year end. It now expects a GP margin of 49% (previously 50.7%), an OP margin of 7% (previously 9.4%) and recurring operating profit at EUR1.3bn (RMB8.91bn) (previously EUR1.8-1.9bn). 全球市场： 22H2公司整体预计保持双位数增长，主要系去年同期基数较低，持续推出优质产品，对批发客户放宽补货政策和重要体育赛事的加持。 22Q2预计收入55.96亿欧元，约合383.33亿元人民币，同增10%；剔除汇率影响同增4%。其中北美和拉丁美洲双位数增长，EMEA高单位数增长，亚太地区恢复正增长。公司GP margin为50.3%，同减1.5pct；OP margin为7.0%，同减3.7pct；持续经营利润为3.6亿欧元，约为24.66亿元人民币，同减7%。 Global business: the company guides double-digit growth in H2E This is mainly due to a low base yoy on the roll-out of premium products, its easing inventory replenishment policy for wholesale customers, and adding key sporting events. 22Q2E: it estimates global revenue of EUR5.6bn (RMB38.33bn), up 10% yoy, or up 4% yoy excluding FX. Regionally: it expects North American and Latin America to post double-digit growth in Q2E, EMEA high single-digit growth and Asia Pacific to turn around to positive growth. Other indicators: it expects GP margin at 50.3% in Q2E, down 1.5ppt; OP margin at 7.0%, down 3.7ppt; recurring operating profit at EUR360m (RMB2.47bn), down 7%. 新疆棉事件至今，阿迪达斯在大中华区的收入持续减少，拖累品牌业绩；近年来在产品矩阵上青黄不接，继boost科技后推动4D科技但在消费者中认可度较低；受疫情影响客流量致生意承压。 Due to fallout from the Xinjiang cotton labor issue so far, the company’s Greater China revenue has continued to fall, dragging down brand performance. Its newer product lines have failed to replicate previous successes. After Boost R&D, it rolled out 4D technology but consumer take-up has been low, and footfall slowed due to the pandemic impact, adding to business pressure. 阿迪达斯完整半年报将在8月4日披露。我们继续看好国牌在下半年提升国内市场份额，通过产品上新和营销活动推动品牌向上升级；海外巨头中国区优势渐弱，国牌势能提升继续演绎。我们预计主要国牌消费环境环比改善，国货消费理念及自信逐步形成。部分头部品牌譬如李宁、特步等7月以来预计实现流水增长，加速弥补此前零售缺口完成全年目标。其中：①李宁整体保持积极环比增长，延续放大原创性品牌基因，全面把握市场机会；②斐乐加速品牌及组织优化，安踏品牌升级及DTC效率显现；③特步受益精准差异化定位及产品渠道矩阵优化，生意表现突出。 Shrinking foreign dominance leads to expanding potential for Chinese brands Adidas is slated to release its actual H1 earnings on 4 Aug. We remain optimistic that Chinese brands will grow their China market share in H2 and promote brand upgrades through product updates and marketing activities. The weakening dominance of foreign giants in China expands the market potential for Chinese brands. We expect domestic brand leaders will see a better consumption market hoh as made-in-China consumption rises with increasing Chinese confidence. We expect brand leaders like Li Ning and Xtep would have seen turnover growth since July and would pick up the slack by accelerating their retail business to meet annual sales targets. 此外建议关注：李宁、安踏、特步等 Investment ideas and risks Key Chinese stocks to consider: ·Li Ning (2331 HK, BUY): it is seeing positive cyclical growth and continues to enhance its original brand DNA to grasp market opportunities. ·ANTA Sports (2020 HK, BUY): ANTA’s Fila accelerated its brand and business structure optimization; while ANTA upgraded its brand on DTC efficiency. ·Xtep (1368 HK, BUY): precisely differentiated positioning and product channel matrix optimization has led to strong outperformance. 风险提示：海外疫情反复；供应链稳定性带来运营效率影响；新疆棉事件影响持续；消费者对鞋服偏好变动等 Risks include: pandemic resurgence in foreign countries; supply chain instability impacting operational efficiency; persisting fallout from the Xinjiang cotton issue; and changing preferences in consumer footwear. 以下为研报节选，查看更多请联系天风国际销售团队或访问天风国际研报网页。 The following is an extract. 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