海外互联网: Bilibili 2Q22前瞻:预计2Q22或为业绩拐点,关注商业化恢复进度

（以下内容从天风证券《海外互联网: Bilibili 2Q22前瞻:预计2Q22或为业绩拐点,关注商业化恢复进度》研报附件原文摘录）
　　Global Internet Media Services Bilibili 2Q22前瞻：预计2Q22或为业绩拐点，关注商业化恢复进度 Bilibili 2QE earnings preview: inflection point alongside commercial recovery progress 投资要点/Investment Thesis 投资要点/Investment Thesis 用户：用户数、时长保持健康增长。根据Questmobile，2Q22Bilibili平均MAU为1.89亿，yoy+26%，用户数据保持健康增长，人均时长维持高位，6月时长达98分钟。进入7月以来，用户数保持高速增长，7月第一周周活同比增长32%。我们预计，在Story Mode的带动之下，Bilibili整体2Q用户数、时长仍将保持健康增长，其中用户数2Q有望达约3.1亿。 Bilibili’s user numbers and hours maintained a healthy growth pace Bilibili’s (BILI US/9626 HK, BUY) averaged 189m MAU in 2Q22E, yoy +26%, according to QuestMobile, while healthy growth in user data and high average user times reached 98 minutes in June. User numbers have grown quickly since the beginning of July, as weekly activity spiked 32% yoy in the first week. Driven by Story Mode, we expect Bilibili users would have increased to 310m in 2QE, on a healthy growth pace in user numbers and hours. 商业化：2Q或为业绩拐点 - 受疫情影响，2Q广告、电商业务增速或放缓。我们预计公司2Q广告业务收入yoy+9%至11.47亿，电商业务收入yoy持平。多地疫情影响下外出受限，导致广告主投放效果短期内出现暂时性降低，或影响广告主短期投放意愿，同时电商收发货出现短期停滞或延误迹象等宏观大环境低迷情况下，B站广告及电商业务短期亦承受一定压力，我们建议后续关注Story Mode为B站广告业务带来的增量，根据我们此前在《内容互联网：哔哩哔哩Story Mode增量几何？后续有哪些潜在超预期的点？》中测算，Story Mode对B站广告业务收入增量贡献在14亿~33亿之间，占21年B站广告业务收入在31%~72%之间 Commercial progress: inflection point in 2QE profitability -Pandemic effects dragged down growth rates in ads and e-commerce in 2Q. We estimate Bilibili’s advertising revenue rose 9% yoy to RMB1.15bn in 2QE, while e-commerce revenue growth would have been flat yoy, as both of these businesses came under considerable pressure. Pandemic management measures in many places curbed travel, shrinking ad effectiveness and impacting key advertisers’ ad placement willingness in the short term. At the same time, indications of the macro downturn included temporary pauses or delays in e-commerce collections and deliveries. We note incremental volumes brought by Story Mode to Bilibili’s advertising business. In our previous report, Online content: what is Story Mode’s contribution to Bilibili’s incremental business? Which areas could outperform expectations?, we estimated Story Mode’s incremental contribution to Bilibili’s ad revenue at RMB1.4-3.3bn, accounting for 31-72% of total ad revenue in 2021. - 游戏业务收入承压，关注海外业务表现及自研游戏进度。我们预计受游戏版号4月前停发、缺乏新的重磅独代业务影响，游戏业务收入yoy-13%至10.7亿，建议后续关注：1）海外游戏业务表现。6月27日，《赛马娘 Pretty Derby》台湾版本上线，该游戏此前预期较高，该游戏由在台湾地区由B站子公司小萌科技代理，建议关注后续表现；2）自研游戏进度。近期，B站全资入股北京时之砂科技有限公司，该公司曾为《重装战姬》研发商，《重装战姬》韩服表现优秀，后续自研进度值得期待。 - 我们预计VAS业务整体表现稳健，收入yoy +30%至21.33亿。 -Game revenue was also under pressure, notably impacted by foreign markets and development progress in independent titles. We expect game revenue would have dropped 13% yoy to RMB1.07bn in 2QE, due to a halt in game title number approvals before April and a lack of exclusive-distribution blockbuster releases. We would monitor the following factors: 1) Foreign markets: the highly anticipated Taiwan edition of Horse-riding Girls’ Pretty Derby was launched online on 27 June and is distributed in Taiwan by Bilibili subsidiary Komoe Games. We would monitor its subsequent performance. 2) Independently developed games: Bilibili recently took whole ownership of Beijing Shizhisha Technology, the developer of Final Gear. The Korean version of Final Gear is performing well. We anticipate more independent titles to come. - We expect a stable VAS business, with revenue yoy rising 30% to RMB2.13bn in 2QE. 毛利及净利短期承压。受广告业务承压影响，我们预计1Q22毛利率为15%，净亏损或较1Q进一步扩大。考虑到Bilibili平台用户初具规模、未来用户增长投放有望逐步得到控制，且公司陆续调组织架构，优化人员结构，建议后续关注降本增效进程。 Gross and net profit under short-term pressure Affected by advertising pressure, we expect a wider net loss in 2Q vs 1Q, with 2Q gross margin at 15%. Considering the emerging scale-up of Bilibili platform users, we expect it will manage future user growth well. The company has also been tweaking its organizational structure to optimize staff efficiency. We would monitor its cost reduction and efficiency improvement progress 投资建议/Investment Ideas 投资建议：我们认为，公司用户增长稳健，但疫情导致公司商业化承压，建议关注商业化恢复进程。截至2022年7月27日，公司2022E~2024E彭博一致预期收入分别为230/299/374亿人民币，当前股价对应P/S分别为2.93/2.25/1.8，建议关注Bilibili Valuation and risks While we expect Bilibili to maintain steady user growth, we would watch the impact of pandemic pressure on the progress of a commercial recovery. Bloomberg consensus forecasts revenue of RMB23bn/29.9bn/37.4bn in 2022/23/24E, with PS multiples corresponding to the current share price of 2.93/2.25/1.8x (as of 27 July 2022). We would continue to monitor Bilibili shares. 风险提示：MAU增长速度不及预期；中概股监管政策进一步趋严；数据监管政策进一步趋严；DAU/MAU进一步下滑；商业化恢复进程不达预期 Risks include: slower MAU growth rates than expected; tightening regulatory policy on China-theme shares; tightening data regulation policy; declining DAU/MAU; and slower-than-expected commercial recovery progress. 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