纺织服装:PA66国产化再迎突破,lululemon进军户外,国内消费边际改善

（以下内容从天风证券《纺织服装:PA66国产化再迎突破,lululemon进军户外,国内消费边际改善》研报附件原文摘录）
　　China Textiles and Apparel PA66国产化再迎突破，lululemon进军户外，国内消费边际改善 PA66 substitution breakthroughs, lululemon enters outdoors market, domestic consumer margins improve 投资要点/Investment Thesis 投资要点/Investment Thesis 近期我们持续提示66产业变化，国产己二腈预计投产，切片有望突破，或带动英威达降价，PA66价格有望进入长期下行通道。 中长期看，我们看好66替代逻辑推动需求增长，尼龙差别化、高端化产品迎合市场需求，产业链配套逐步实现国产替代，供销两旺；中短期看，基于中化天辰己二腈预计投产，有望倒逼英威达逐步降价同时助推66切片国产化进度，天辰/华峰/神马切片质量或逐步提升。尽管短期全球需求走弱，但伴随66产业链降价趋势较为明确，我们预计未来仍具备可观的市场增长潜力。 【标的】台华新材、三联虹普、聚合顺等 PA66 market changes, Chinese adiponitrile production roll-outs and nylon chip breakthroughs could spur Invista price drop, PA66 to enter price decline cycle In the medium to long term: we expect Chinese PA66 substitution to drive demand growth. Nylon product differentiation and high-end nylon products fulfill market demand and the supply chain realize domestic substitution, supply and sales would rise. In the short to medium term: Sinochem’s Tianchen expects its adiponitrile project to commence production, which could drive Invista to reduce prices and spur progress of the PA66 domestic substitution, while the quality of Tianchen, Huafeng and Shenma nylon chips quality gradually improve. We see considerable market growth potential on weak short-term global demand and a visible price decline trend in the PA66 supply chain. Stock picks: Taihua New Materials (603055 CH, BUY), Sanlian Hope Shin-Gosen (300384 CH, BUY). Not-rated market player: Juheshun (605166 CH). lululemon发布品牌首个综合徒步系列产品——lululemon Hike，系列产品不但具备极强的功能属性也兼顾时尚审美和丰富SKU。 我们认为户外装备及穿搭逐步破圈，不再是小众圈层专属名词或是追求极端户外的固定品类，而是未来都市青年中较受欢迎的生活方式和穿搭理念，在日常生活中通过主题化、功能性装配鞋服为穿搭风格增添色彩，展现个人品味追求，户外与生活时尚边界日益模糊；或能对标此前流行多年的运动时尚风潮，产业宽度及空间可期。 【标的】牧高笛、浙江自然、安踏体育等 lululemon launches Hike series with fashion-and-function attributes, rich SKUs We believe outdoor apparel and equipment will become a mainstream market. Its exclusive, niche or extreme outdoor sports appeal is slowly giving way to popular lifestyle and urban wear vibes for urban youth of the future. In daily life, thematic and functional footwear and apparel add color to wardrobe styles and express personal tastes, the line between outdoors and lifestyle fashion starts to blur. We expect the outdoors industry to broaden and grow, based on our assessment of previous years’ sports fashion trends. Stock picks: Comefly Outdoors (603908 CH, BUY), Zhejiang Natural Outdoor Goods (605080 CH, BUY), ANTA Sports (2020 HK, BUY). 优衣库6月大中华业务恢复，沪苏广双位数同店增长，计划下半年全球涨价。 近期优衣库发布FY22 3-5月季报，大中华收入约7.6亿美金占总19%，同减14%；6月起生意逐步恢复，多数城市已双位数同店增长，且加快中国地区开店，门店数增至888家已超越日本本土。但面对全球通胀，优衣库决定对2022秋冬系列产品价格作出调整，上调部分产品价格。我们预计运动品牌6月以来零售拐点初现，或通过产品上新及营销活动提前等方式应对变化，有望加速弥补此前零售缺口完成全年目标。 【标的】李宁、安踏体育、特步、报喜鸟等 Uniqlo’s Greater China business picks up on double-digit same-store-sales rise in Shanghai, Suzhou and Guangzhou; plans to raise prices worldwide in H2 Uniqlo’s FY22 March-May quarterly results: Greater China revenue came to USD760m, 19% of the total, down 14% yoy. Business began to recover from June, when most cities showed double-digit same-store-sales growth. The company has stepped up its store openings in China to reach 888, surpassing its total on the Japanese mainland. However, in the face of global inflation, Uniqlo decided to adjust prices in its 2022 fall-winter collection and is raising the prices of some products. We have been expecting an inflection point in retail sports since June. As the brand tries to make up for the previous slack in retail to fulfill full-year targets, we may see responses such as product updates, advance marketing activities or other initiatives. Stock picks: Li Ning (2331 HK, BUY), ANTA Sports (2020 HK, BUY), Xtep (1368 HK, BUY), Baoxiniao (002154 CH, BUY; initiation). 风险提示：产能扩张不及预期；原材料价格大幅波动；下游需求不及预期；行业竞争风险；疫情局部反复影响后续线下客流；新品发售销量不及预期；电商热度不及预期等 Risks include: lower capacity expansions than expected; significant volatility in raw material prices; downstream demand below expectations; competitive risks; pandemic resurgence in China affecting offline shopping footfall; new product sales falling below expectations; and the popularity of e-commerce falling below expectations. 以下为研报节选，查看更多请联系天风国际销售团队或访问天风国际研报网页。 The following is an extract. For the full report, please contact our sales team or visit the TFI report website. Email: equity@tfisec.com TFI research report website: (pls scan the QR code) 本文件由天风国际证券集团有限公司, 天风国际证券与期货有限公司（证监会中央编号：BAV573）及天风国际资产管理有限公司（证监会中央编号：ASF056）（合称“天风国际集团”）编制，所载资料可能以若干假设为基础，仅供专业投资者作非商业用途及参考之用途，会因经济、市场及其他情况而随时更改而毋须另行通知。任何媒体、网站或个人未经授权不得转载、链接、转贴或以其他方式复制发表本文件及任何内容。已获授权者，在使用本文件或任何内容时必须注明稿件来源于天风国际集团，并承诺遵守相关法例及一切使用的国际惯例，不为任何非法目的或以任何非法方式使用本文件，违者将依法追究相关法律责任。本文件所引用之数据或资料可能得自第三方，天风国际集团将尽可能确认资料来源之可靠性，但天风国际集团并不对第三方所提供数据或资料之准确性负责。且天风国际集团不会就本文件所载任何资料、预测及／或意见的公平性、准确性、时限性、完整性或正确性，以及任何该等预测及／或意见所依据的基准作出任何明文或暗示的保证、陈述、担保或承诺而负责或承担任何法律责任。本文件中如有类似前瞻性陈述之内容，此等内容或陈述不得视为对任何将来表现之保证，且应注意实际情况或发展可能与该等陈述有重大落差。本文件并非及不应被视为邀约、招揽、邀请、建议买卖任何投资产品或投资决策之依据，亦不应被诠释为专业意见。阅览本文件的人士或在作出任何投资决策前，应完全了解其风险以及有关法律、赋税及会计的特点及后果，并根据个人的情况决定投资是否切合个人的投资目标，以及能否承担有关风险，必要时应寻求适当的专业意见。投资涉及风险。敬请投资者注意，证券及投资的价值可升亦可跌，过往的表现不一定可以预示日后的表现。在若干国家，传阅及分派本文件的方式可能受法律或规例所限制。获取本文件的人士须知悉及遵守该等限制。 阅读原文 立即开户

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