纺服和教育——特步牵手宝胜强强联合,东方甄选账号矩阵渐成,牧高笛6月销售额有望达新高

（以下内容从天风证券《纺服和教育——特步牵手宝胜强强联合,东方甄选账号矩阵渐成,牧高笛6月销售额有望达新高》研报附件原文摘录）
　　China Apparel and Education 特步牵手宝胜强强联合，东方甄选账号矩阵渐成，牧高笛6月销售额有望达新高 Xtep-Pou Sheng collab, New Oriental Select product matrix buildout, Comefly’s June sales could set a new record 投资要点/Investment Thesis 投资要点/Investment Thesis 特步与宝胜合作门店落地河北唐山，强强联合加速区域覆盖。据胜道河北官微，唐山荣大特步店近期开业，未来或继续完善区域覆盖，借助宝胜渠道及运营经验加快生意增长。特步持续推动渠道优化，关小店开大店，新开店或多为全新形象9代店，计划于2025年将店铺平均面积自目前的约130平方提升至175~180平方，同时提升购物中心门店占比。本次合作将加速门店优化，有望布局更多二三线城市核心物业，同时引入优质经销商提振渠道效率。 此前李宁合作滔搏，加快试点探索优化经销商队伍，我们预计未来头部品牌或继续推动与优质经销商合作；在巩固DTC优势基础上借助成熟团队及优质资源加快生意成长。耐克阿迪今年以来大中华区整体增长势头仍表现较弱，在消费者关注/心智及渠道覆盖/质量等方面均给国牌较大发展机遇。 【关注】李宁、特步国际、安踏体育、波司登、申洲国际等 Xtep’s Tangshan Hebei store collab with Pou Sheng widens regional footprint Sportswear manufacturer Xtep (1368 HK, BUY) opened its Tangshan Rongda store in Hebei Province recently, according to Pou Sheng’s YYsports Weibo site. The collaboration benefits from retailer and distributor Pou Sheng’s (3813 HK, not rated) channels and operational experience to broaden its regional coverage and aid business growth. Xtep continues to promote channel optimization by closing small stores and opening large stores; the new ones are likely to be based on a completely new 9th-generation model. It plans to increase the average store area from 130 sq m to 175-180 and raise the proportion of stores in shopping malls by 2025E. The collaboration enhances store optimization and could expand its presence in core locations in 2nd/3rd-tier cities. The addition of quality dealers could boost channel efficiency. Prior to this, Li Ning had collaborated with Topsports (6110 HK, BUY) to amp up its dealer team optimization pilot. With manifold advantages in direct-to-consumer consolidation, access to mature teams and quality resources, we believe the trend of brand leaders collaborating with quality dealers will continue. In addition, the weak growth momentum in Nike and Adidas’ Greater China business this year implies greater opportunites for Chinese brands. We see expanded scope in terms of consumer awareness, mindshare and channel coverage, and volume and quality growth. Stocks to watch ·Li Ning (2331 HK, BUY) ·Xtep (1368 HK, BUY) ·ANTA Sports (2020 HK, BUY) ·Bosideng (3998 HK, BUY) ·Shenzhou International (2313 HK, BUY). 东方甄选美丽生活账号上线直播超预期。其主销美妆个护家清等，部分时段在线人数已达头部阵营，与主账号及图书等分账号构建矩阵式直播平台，借助较强品牌背书、差异化基因、较深用户粘性和中长期战略高度打造直播及农产品国民级品牌。一方面，美妆个护家清品类具备更大的消费受众和平台运营收益，未来GMV或有较大增长潜力，与东方甄选账号形成双极增长；另一方面账号公司化、主播去头部化、供应链及运营标准化或是未来直播电商主要趋势，我们认为东方甄选等机构具备较好的成长前景。 【关注】新东方在线、中公教育、中教控股、新东方、天立教育等 New Oriental Select’s shopping and books livestream platform The New Oriental Select shopping app’s Beautiful Lifestyle livestreams have exceeded expectations. Its main categories are beauty and home cleaning, with peak-period online user numbers comparable with those of market leaders. The main account combines with online books and other sub-accounts to form a cohesive livestream platform matrix. Strong brand endorsement, product differentiation, user stickiness and medium to long-term strategies have built a national brand for livestreams and agricultural products. While the beauty and house cleaning categories currently account for more eyeballs and more platform operational revenue, we believe their GMV holds greater growth potential, indicating dual-driver future growth for New Oriental Select. However, account corporatization, livestream anchors moving to market leaders, supply chain and operational standardization could represent key future trends in livestream e-commerce. We believe platforms like New Oriental Select would have better growth prospects. Stocks to watch ·Koolearn (1797 HK, BUY) ·Offcn Education (002607 CH, BUY) ·China Education (0839 HK, BUY; initiation) ·New Oriental Education & Technology Group (EDU US, BUY; initiation) ·Tianli International (1773 HK, BUY) 本周业绩预告建议关注牧高笛，我们预计Q2净利同比增速或达到强制披露要求。从6月各露营品牌线上销售情况看，一方面，我们认为专业化且有设计感的露营产品将更多受到消费者青睐，以牧高笛、挪客为代表头部品牌享有更多α发展机遇；另一方面，我们预计牧高笛6月销售继续新高，在线上规模增长同时，品牌及OEM业务净利率成重要看点，盈利能力提升或贯穿全年。此外，国家大力发展飞盘运动有望充分带动户外露营周边产业发展。 【关注】牧高笛、伟星股份、盛泰集团、华利集团、台华新材、三联虹普等 Performance preview: focus on Comefly Outdoors We expect Comefly Outdoors’ Q2 net profit yoy growth rate to meet mandatory disclosure requirements. Based on online sales of camping brands in June, professional sports and well-designed camping products are more popular. We believe that brand leaders Comefly Outdoors and Naturehike will have premium growth opportunities. We also expect Comefly Outdoors sales would have set a new record high in June. Besides its online sales scale, we believe the brand’s net profit margin and OEM business will come under the investor spotlight. We expect its profitability to improve throughout the year. In addition, China’s promotion of the frisbee league would drive the growth of outdoor camping and related markets. Stocks to watch ·Comefly Outdoors (603908 CH, BUY) ·Zhejiang Weixing (002003 CH, BUY) ·Zhejiang Sunrise Garment (605138 CH, BUY) ·Huali Industrial (300979 CH, BUY) ·Zhejiang Taihua (603055 CH, BUY) Other market players: not rated Beijing Sanlian Hope Shin-Gosen (300384 CH) 风险提示：疫情局部反复影响后续线下客流；原材料及人工价格上涨导致成本压力；新品发售销量不及预期；电商热度不及预期；业务拓展情况不及预期；招生情况不及预期等风险。 Risks include: local pandemic resurgence affects offline footfall; higher raw material and labor costs add cost pressure; weaker new product sales than expected; weaker e-commerce boom than expected; less business expansion than expected; and lower student enrollments than expected. 以下为研报节选，查看更多请联系天风国际销售团队或访问天风国际研报网页。 The following is an extract. For the full report, please contact our sales team or visit the TFI report website. Email: equity@tfisec.com TFI research report website: (pls scan the QR code) 本文件由天风国际证券集团有限公司, 天风国际证券与期货有限公司（证监会中央编号：BAV573）及天风国际资产管理有限公司（证监会中央编号：ASF056）（合称“天风国际集团”）编制，所载资料可能以若干假设为基础，仅供专业投资者作非商业用途及参考之用途，会因经济、市场及其他情况而随时更改而毋须另行通知。任何媒体、网站或个人未经授权不得转载、链接、转贴或以其他方式复制发表本文件及任何内容。已获授权者，在使用本文件或任何内容时必须注明稿件来源于天风国际集团，并承诺遵守相关法例及一切使用的国际惯例，不为任何非法目的或以任何非法方式使用本文件，违者将依法追究相关法律责任。本文件所引用之数据或资料可能得自第三方，天风国际集团将尽可能确认资料来源之可靠性，但天风国际集团并不对第三方所提供数据或资料之准确性负责。且天风国际集团不会就本文件所载任何资料、预测及／或意见的公平性、准确性、时限性、完整性或正确性，以及任何该等预测及／或意见所依据的基准作出任何明文或暗示的保证、陈述、担保或承诺而负责或承担任何法律责任。本文件中如有类似前瞻性陈述之内容，此等内容或陈述不得视为对任何将来表现之保证，且应注意实际情况或发展可能与该等陈述有重大落差。本文件并非及不应被视为邀约、招揽、邀请、建议买卖任何投资产品或投资决策之依据，亦不应被诠释为专业意见。阅览本文件的人士或在作出任何投资决策前，应完全了解其风险以及有关法律、赋税及会计的特点及后果，并根据个人的情况决定投资是否切合个人的投资目标，以及能否承担有关风险，必要时应寻求适当的专业意见。投资涉及风险。敬请投资者注意，证券及投资的价值可升亦可跌，过往的表现不一定可以预示日后的表现。在若干国家，传阅及分派本文件的方式可能受法律或规例所限制。获取本文件的人士须知悉及遵守该等限制。 阅读原文 立即开户

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