纺织服装:耐克FY22Q4大中华区营收同减20%,新ERP布局中国提升供应链敏捷性

（以下内容从天风证券《纺织服装:耐克FY22Q4大中华区营收同减20%,新ERP布局中国提升供应链敏捷性》研报附件原文摘录）
　　China Textiles and Apparel 耐克FY22Q4大中华区营收同减20%，新ERP布局中国提升供应链敏捷性 Nike supply chain: FY22Q4 Greater China revenue dips 20% yoy; new ERP system to raise supply nimbleness 投资要点/Investment Thesis 投资要点/Investment Thesis 耐克FY22Q4收入122.34亿美元同增3%，大中华区同减20% 耐克FY22Q4（2022/3/1-2022/5/31）收入122.34亿美元，约合793.90亿人民币（汇率换算参考英为财情），同增3%（此处及以下营收增速均剔除汇率影响）。 Q4 results: total revenue rose 3% yoy to USD12.23bn; Greater China down 20% Nike Inc’s (NKE US, not rated) total revenue was USD12.23bn (about RMB79.39bn) in FY22Q4 (ended 31 May), up 3% yoy (note: exchange rates based on investing.com; revenue growth calculations exclude FX impact here and below). 分品牌看，NIKE品牌收入116.57亿美元，约合756.46亿人民币，同比增长3%；匡威收入5.93亿美元，约合38.48亿人民币，同增3%。 Brands: revenue from the NIKE brand generated USD11.66bn (about RMB75.65bn), up 3% yoy, while Converse contributed USD593m (about RMB3.85bn), up 3% yoy. 分地区看，NIKE品牌大中华区收入15.61亿美元，约合101.30亿人民币，同比减少20%，EBIT下降55%，为所有地区下滑速度最快；受疫情广泛影响，超过100个城市及约60%的业务受到影响。 聚焦大中华区各品类，其中鞋类收入11.78亿美元同减12%；服饰类3.50亿美元同减40%；装备类0.33亿美元同减28%。 Greater China: NIKE brand revenue came to USD1.56bn (about RMB10.13bn), down 20% yoy, and EBIT fell 55%, the sharpest slide across all regions; due to the extensive impact of the pandemic, over 100 cities or about 60% of the business were affected. Breakdown: footwear revenue was USD1.18bn, down 12% yoy; apparel was USD350m, down 40% yoy; and equipment generated USD33m, down 28% yoy. 北美地区收入51.15亿美元同减5%；EMEA（欧洲、中东及非洲地区，下同）地区收入32.51亿美元同增20%；APLA（亚太及拉丁美洲地区，下同）收入16.82亿美元同增24%。 Other regions: North America revenue came to USD5.12bn, down 5% yoy; EMEA (Europe, Middle East and Africa) generated USD3.25bn, up 20% yoy, while APLA (Asia Pacific and Latin America) revenue was USD1.68bn, up 24% yoy. 分产品看，NIKE品牌鞋类收入79.85亿美元，约合518.17亿人民币，同增4%；服饰类收入32.37亿美元，约合210.06亿人民币，同减2%；装备类3.87亿美元，约合25.11亿人民币，同增10%。 Products: NIKE brand footwear revenue was USD7.99bn (about RMB51.82bn), up 4% yoy); apparel revenue was USD3.24bn (about RMB21.01bn), a decrease of 2% yoy; and equipment generated USD387m (about RMB2.51bn), an increase of 10% yoy. 分渠道看，NIKE直营渠道收入48亿美元，约合人311.49民币，同增11%，主要系APLA地区同增43%、EMEA地区同增25%、北美同增5%；电商渠道同增18%，主要系北美、APLA、EMEA地区呈双位数增长；批发渠道收入68亿美元，约合441.27人民币，同减3%。 Channels: NIKE’s direct sales generated revenue of USD4.8bn (about RMB31.15bn), an increase of 11% yoy: this was mainly due to a 43% increase in the APLA region, a 25% increase in the EMEA region, and a 5% increase in North America. E-commerce increased 18% yoy, mainly due to double-digit growth in North America, APLA and EMEA, while wholesale revenue was USD6.8bn (about RMB44.13bn), down 3% yoy. FY22Q4毛利率减少0.8pct至45.0%，主要系大中华地区库存积压以及货运和物流成本上升影响，部分下降系定价战略，外汇汇率的调整和Nike直营利润率提升抵消。 Gross profit margin: FY22Q4 gross margin decreased 0.8ppt yoy to 45.0%, mainly due to overstocking in Greater China and higher freight and logistics costs. Part of the decline was due to the pricing strategy, which offset foreign exchange rate adjustments and the increase in Nike’s direct operating profit margin. FY22Q4销售及一般管理费用率33%同增2.7pct，其中营销费用同增6%，主要系体育营销费用增加和为应对不断增长的数字需求在数字营销的持续投资；经营管理费用为29.74亿美元，约合192.99亿人民币，主要系加大战略科技投资，Nike Direct可变成本和工资相关费用增长。 SG&A ratio: this was 33%, up 2.7ppt yoy, within which marketing expenses rose 6% yoy due to higher sports marketing expenses and continuing investment in digital marketing on growing digital demand. Operating and administrative expenses amounted to USD2.97bn (about RMB19.3bn), mainly due to more strategic investment in technology as well as higher Nike Direct variable costs and salary-related expenses. FY22Q4公司净利润14.39亿美元，约合93.38亿人民币，同比减少5%。 Net profit: the company’s net profit came to USD1.44bn (about RMB9.34bn) in FY22Q4, a decrease of 5% yoy. 耐克FY22收入467.1亿美元同增6%，大中华区同减13% 耐克FY22（2021/6/1-2022/5/31）收入467.1亿美元，约合3006.26亿人民币，同比增长6%。 FY22 results: revenue rose 6% to USD46.71bn; Greater China fell 13% Nike Inc’s FY22 (ended 31 May 2022) revenue came to USD46.71bn (about RMB300.63bn), an increase of 6%. 分品牌看，NIKE品牌收入444.36亿美元，约合2859.90亿人民币，同比增长6%；匡威收入23.46亿美元，约合150.99亿人民币，同增7%。 Brands: the NIKE brand generated revenue of USD44.44bn (about RMB285.99bn), an increase of 6%; Converse generated USD2.35bn (about RMB15.1bn), up 7%. 分地区看，NIKE品牌大中华区收入75.47亿美元，约合485.72亿人民币，同比减少13%。其中鞋类收入54.16亿美元同减10%；服饰类19.38亿美元同减21%；装备类1.93亿美元同减6%。 Greater China: the NIKE brand generated USD7.55bn (about RMB48.57bn) from Greater China, a decrease of 13%: including footwear at USD5.42bn, down 10%; apparel at USD1.94bn (down 21%); and equipment at USD193m, a decrease of 6%. 北美地区收入183.53亿美元同增7%；EMEA地区收入124.79亿美元同增12%；APLA收入59.55亿美元同增16%。 Other regions: North America revenue came to USD18.35bn, an increase of 7%; EMEA generated USD12.48bn, an increase of 12%; and APLA revenue was USD5.96bn, an increase of 16%. 分产品看，NIKE品牌鞋类收入291.43亿美元，约合1875.64亿人民币，同增4%；服饰类收入135.67亿美元，约合873.17亿人民币，同增6%；装备类16.24亿美元，约合104.52亿人民币，同增18%。 Products: NIKE brand footwear revenue was USD29.14bn (about RMB187.56bn), an increase of 4%; apparel revenue was USD13.57bn (about RMB87.32bn), up 6%; and equipment was USD1.62bn (about RMB10.45bn), an increase of 18%. 分渠道看，NIKE直营渠道收入187.26亿美元，约合1205.21亿人民币，同增15%，电商渠道同增18%，直营实体门店同增10%。批发渠道收入256.08亿美元，约合1648.13亿人民币，同减1%。 Channels: direct sales revenue was USD18.73bn (about RMB120.52bn), an increase of 15%; E-commerce up 18% yoy, Nike’s direct operating store up 10% yoy. Wholesale was USD25.61bn (about RMB164.81bn), a decrease of 1%. FY22毛利率46%，同增1.2pct，主要系全价商品销售增加、外汇汇率利好，部分被运费和物流成本上升以及Q4大中华区库存过时储备增加所抵消。FY22销售管理费用率31.7%同增2.5pct。 Gross profit margin was 46%, an increase of 1.2ppt, mainly due to higher full-priced merchandise sales and favorable foreign exchange rates, but the effects were offset by higher freight and logistics costs and an increase in obsolete inventory reserves in Greater China in Q4. In FY22, SG&A ratio was 31.7%, an increase of 2.5ppt. FY22公司净利润60.46亿美元，约合389.12亿人民币，同增6%。大中华区EBIT为23.65亿美元，约合152.21亿人民币，同减27%，仍为所有区域中增速最低。 FY22 net profit came to USD6.05bn (about RMB38.91bn), up 6%. Greater China EBIT was USD2.37bn (about RMB15.22bn), down 27%, the lowest growth rate among the different regions. 供应链问题持续影响商品供应，在途存货规模增长。截至2022年5月31日，公司存货规模为84亿美元同增23%，主要系交货时间延长导致在途货物增长。新ERP将于今年7月在大中华地区测试，建成后有望提升供应链速度及敏捷性，公司预计新ERP技术在FY24建设北美市场。 Supply chain issues continue to hurt as transit inventory levels rise. Nike Inc’s inventory amounted to USD8.4bn as of 31 May 2022, an increase of 23%, mostly due to a rise in transit product inventories with lengthening delivery times. Its new ERP system will be tested in Greater China in July this year. The company expects the roll-out to improve speed and increase nimbleness across the supply chain. It expects to apply the new ERP technology to the North American market in FY24E. 公司发布FY23全年指引，预计FY23收入低双位数增长 公司预计FY2023收入低双位数增长，部分会被约4pct的外汇阻力抵消。其中，FY2023Q1由于大中华区疫情和超过约5pct的外汇折算影响，实际美元收入增长预计较上年同期持平或略有增长。 FY23E guidance: low double-digit revenue growth The company expects low double-digit revenue growth in FY23E, partially due to foreign exchange headwinds of around 4ppt. It expects flat yoy or slightly higher USD revenue growth in FY23Q1, due to the pandemic impact in Greater China and an FX impact of more than 5ppt. FY2023毛利率预计较上年同期持平或下降0.5pct；主要系公司在定价上有中单位数提升、直营占比持续提升。其中FY2023Q1毛利率下降压力预计超过1pct，主要系公司调整大中华区的供需，由于工厂停工和运输时间增加，清理季节性库存的促销活动将增多。 Gross profit margin to be flat yoy or down 0.5ppt, mainly due to a mid-single-digit increase in pricing and a rising proportion of direct sales. Downward pressure on gross profit margin in FY23Q1 could exceed 1ppt, mainly because of supply and demand adjustments in Greater China. Due to factory shutdowns and increased transportation time, promotional activities to clear seasonal inventories would increase. 预计FY2023销售及一般管理费用预计低个位数~高个位数增长，公司将持续在员工、品牌、新店、和转型能力投资。 It expects FY23 SG&A expenses to grow at a low single-digits to high single-digit, as the company continues to invest in employees, brands, new stores and restructures. 耐克来自大中华收入继续下滑，李宁安踏特步凭借其在品牌产品运营等方面的优势或将持续分享其市场份额、提升市占率；6月以来线下客流恢复及基数逐步恢复正常化，李宁安踏特步零售增长加速改善，并以618为契机加大专供款及新款销售力度，看好下半年积极增长。 Revenue from Greater China is likely to continue a decline trend. Li Ning, Anta and Xtep could continue to increase market share by virtue of their advantages in brand product operations. Offline footfall recovered in June and the comparative base would gradually normalize. Li Ning, Anta and Xtep’s retail growth has accelerated and improved and it took the 618 promotional opportunity to increase its contribution and add new sales. We are optimistic about positive growth in the second half of the year. 近期NIKE宣布全面退出俄罗斯市场，国牌或将借此机会进一步开拓国际市场。近年来李宁安踏等国牌向上突破，除NIKE外，阿迪等西方运动品牌也逐渐退出俄罗斯市场，打开国牌全球市场份额提升空间。 NIKE recently announced its complete withdrawal from the Russian market and Chinese brands might take the opportunity to expand their global market. Chinese brands such as Li Ning and Anta have made breakthroughs in recent years. Other foreign sports brands like Adidas have also gradually withdrawn from the Russian market, which opens up room for Chinese brands to increase their global market share. 投资建议/Investment Ideas 建议关注【李宁】【安踏体育】【特步国际】【申洲国际】等。 We would monitor the following stocks: ·Li Ning (2331 HK, BUY) ·Anta Sports (2020 HK, BUY) ·Xtep International (1368 HK, BUY) ·Shenzhou International (2313 HK, BUY) 风险提示：全球疫情反复致终端零售不及预期；供应链问题持续；行业原材料价格波动上升、人力成本高增等。 Risks include: persistent global pandemic effects causing weaker retail sales than expected; persistent supply chain problems; sharper fluctuations in industry raw material prices; and increased labor costs. Email: equity@tfisec.com TFI research report website: (pls scan the QR code) 本文件由天风国际证券集团有限公司, 天风国际证券与期货有限公司（证监会中央编号：BAV573）及天风国际资产管理有限公司（证监会中央编号：ASF056）（合称“天风国际集团”）编制，所载资料可能以若干假设为基础，仅供专业投资者作非商业用途及参考之用途，会因经济、市场及其他情况而随时更改而毋须另行通知。任何媒体、网站或个人未经授权不得转载、链接、转贴或以其他方式复制发表本文件及任何内容。已获授权者，在使用本文件或任何内容时必须注明稿件来源于天风国际集团，并承诺遵守相关法例及一切使用的国际惯例，不为任何非法目的或以任何非法方式使用本文件，违者将依法追究相关法律责任。本文件所引用之数据或资料可能得自第三方，天风国际集团将尽可能确认资料来源之可靠性，但天风国际集团并不对第三方所提供数据或资料之准确性负责。且天风国际集团不会就本文件所载任何资料、预测及／或意见的公平性、准确性、时限性、完整性或正确性，以及任何该等预测及／或意见所依据的基准作出任何明文或暗示的保证、陈述、担保或承诺而负责或承担任何法律责任。本文件中如有类似前瞻性陈述之内容，此等内容或陈述不得视为对任何将来表现之保证，且应注意实际情况或发展可能与该等陈述有重大落差。本文件并非及不应被视为邀约、招揽、邀请、建议买卖任何投资产品或投资决策之依据，亦不应被诠释为专业意见。阅览本文件的人士或在作出任何投资决策前，应完全了解其风险以及有关法律、赋税及会计的特点及后果，并根据个人的情况决定投资是否切合个人的投资目标，以及能否承担有关风险，必要时应寻求适当的专业意见。投资涉及风险。敬请投资者注意，证券及投资的价值可升亦可跌，过往的表现不一定可以预示日后的表现。在若干国家，传阅及分派本文件的方式可能受法律或规例所限制。获取本文件的人士须知悉及遵守该等限制。 阅读原文 立即开户

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