中概审计监管跟踪——中概回港将成战略性选择,交易流动性探讨或需动态视角

（以下内容从天风证券《中概审计监管跟踪——中概回港将成战略性选择,交易流动性探讨或需动态视角》研报附件原文摘录）
　　China theme stocks: HK re-listing strategy 中概回港将成战略性选择，交易流动性探讨或需动态视角 China theme stocks: HK return listing strategy and a dynamic trading liquidity approach 投资要点/Investment Thesis 投资要点/Investment Thesis 中概股审计监管政策进展跟踪 整体而言，我们认为中美监管合作基础大于分歧。双方主管部门均释放了积极沟通的意愿，近期均表示已取得一定进展。后续如双方沟通能够按照中国监管部门倡导的“从解决问题的目标出发，以专业方式开展平等磋商”进行，我们对协商展望乐观 Progress of audit rules and regulatory policies for China theme stocks Overall, we believe that the basis for China-US regulatory cooperation outweighs their differences. Regulatory authorities on both sides have expressed willingness to maintain active communication and both recently indicated that progress has been made. If future bilateral communication is aimed at resolving issues professionally and with equal treatment, as advocated by Chinese regulatory authorities, we would be optimistic about future negotiations. 近期美国SEC国际事务办公室主任提到潜在的美国国会立法可能会将目前HFCAA的3年观察期缩短至2年，即最早触发交易禁令的时间点可能由2023年年报披露后（对应2024年3月起）提前至2022年年报披露后（对应2023年3月起）。如在此规定下，PCAOB需要在2022年11月初确定检查和调查完全符合其要求。 The Director of the US SEC‘s Office of International Affairs recently mentioned that potential US Congressional legislation could shorten the current 3-year HFCAA observation period to 2 years. This means the earliest point at which the trading ban could come into effect could be brought forward from after the 2023 annual report disclosures (March 2024 onwards) to after the 2022 annual report disclosures (March 2023 onwards). Under this provision, the PCAOB would need to determine by early November 2022 whether inspections and investigations have fully complied with its requirements. 根据彭博报道，美国众议院议长佩洛西表示，希望在7月4日假期前通过（H.R.4521法案）两院的最终版本。目前该项法案在2月4日众议院通过的版本中包括缩短交易禁令观察期至2年的规定，但在3月28日参议院通过的版本中无此内容。该项距离正式生效需要两院确定一致版本、总统签署。短期建议密切关注。 According to Bloomberg, US House Speaker Nancy Pelosi said she hopes to pass the final version of the bill (HR 4521) before the July 4 holiday. The current version, passed by the House of Representatives on Feb 4, includes a provision to shorten the trading ban observation period to 2 years, but this was not stated in the version passed by the Senate on March 28. For it to become effective, the two houses would need to reach consensus on a version signed by the president. We would watch closely for developments in the short term. 中概股回港或将成战略性选择，宽口径测算或有64只中概股符合回港第二上市或双重主要上市 为应对美国审计监管不确定性角度，我们预计中概股主动选择回港上市将成为趋势，同时更多机构股东也将移仓港股。 The return of China theme stocks to the HK market could be an investment strategy; our estimates show that 64 China theme stocks could be eligible for a secondary listing or a dual primary listing in Hong Kong. In view of the uncertainties of US audit supervision, we anticipate a trend for China theme stocks returning to list in Hong Kong, as more institutional shareholders could shift their positioning toward Hong Kong stocks. 我们测算：1）目前满足双重主要上市（主板，下同）基本要求的中概股达59只，总市值1750亿美元，其中有21只同样符合第二上市要求，总市值1190亿美元。2）如从宽口径而言，计入接近符合上市要求的中概股，可能满足双重主要上市的有64家，总市值1791亿美元，其中可能满足第二上市的中概股有39家，总市值1749亿美元。3）除此之外，剩余182家距离符合回港主板的要求有一定距离，合计市值228亿美元，占整体中概市值约11%。剩余182家中概股现金及现金等价物/市值的中位数约47%，较多公司具备一定私有化基础。 By our estimates: 1) 59 China theme stocks currently meet the basic requirements for a dual primary listing (on the main board, the same as below), representing a collective market cap of USD175bn, of which 21 also meet the requirements for a secondary listing, amounting to a total market cap of USD119bn. 2) Taking a broad perspective, if we were to include China theme stocks that are close to fulfilling listing requirements, 64 China theme stocks would be eligible for a dual primary listing, amounting to a total market cap of USD179.1bn, of which 39 China theme stocks could fulfill secondary listing requirements, a total market cap of USD174.9bn. 3) The remaining 182 companies have a long way to go before fulfilling requirements to return to list on the HKEX main board, a total market cap of USD22.8bn, accounting for about 11% of the total market cap. The median cash value or cash equivalent/market cap of the 182 China theme stocks is about 47%, with many of the companies having a basis for privatization. 从回港方式来看，目前已有16家企业回港第二上市，6家回港双重主要上市。多数大中型企业可以满足第二上市相对较高的市值要求和美股上市时间要求，此前选择第二上市或是出于第二上市豁免规则较多，审核周期较短。后续潜在回港企业体量相对偏小、美股上市时间较短，从降低门槛、扩大投资者角度（双重主要上市可以纳入港股通），我们预计未来中概回港选择双重主要上市的比例提升，同时期待目前已第二上市的大型平台主动转换为双重主要上市。 In terms of listing routes, 16 companies returned to the HK market in a secondary listing, while 6 returned in a dual primary listing. Most of the large and medium-sized companies meet the relatively high market cap requirements for a secondary listing and time requirements for a US listing. They might have chosen a secondary listing because of secondary listing exemption rules and a short review cycle. There is a relatively low volume of companies potentially returning to the Hong Kong market as the time taken to list in the US is relatively short. Due to lower thresholds and a bigger base of investors (Southbound Stock Connect includes dual main listings), we expect a rising proportion of Chinese companies to choose a dual HK mainboard listing in the future. We also expect large companies with a current secondary listing to convert to a dual primary listing on their own initiative. 预计潜在新增融资需求整体可控，交易流动性讨论或需要动态视角，多渠道资金良性循环或可提供支持 我们认为中概回港带来的新增融资压力整体可控。我们测算宽口径下64家中概股回港，即使谨慎假设15%新发股比例，潜在融资需求或不超过2100亿港元，如平均分布于2022-2023年，港股主板承接压力整体可控。2022年以来中概回港介绍上市成为主流。如按照5%或8%的新发股比例，对应潜在融资需求仅约700、1100亿港元。 We expect potential new financing needs to be generally manageable; a transaction and liquidity discussion would require a dynamic approach; support from a multi-channel funding virtuous cycle We believe new financing pressure for China theme stocks that return to the Hong Kong market would be generally manageable. We estimate 64 large-cap China-theme stocks will return to Hong Kong and based on a conservative assumption that 15% of them will be newly issued shares, potential financing demand may not exceed HKD210bn. If the listings are evenly distributed through 2022-23E, the pressure of their inclusions in the HKEX main board would be generally manageable. Return-to-Hong Kong new listings have become mainstream in 2022. According to new issues proportions of 5% or 8%, potential financing needs would be only about HKD70bn or HKD110. 不排除大面积回港后，交易流动性可能会有所稀释。合并22家已回港企业以及64家潜在回港企业，如果简单假设这些公司40-70%的股份交易在港股，且股份迁移至港股后不会影响换手率。对应86家企业潜在港股日均交易额约370-650亿港元，相当于过去3个月港股主板日均成交额34%-60%。 We would not rule out liquidity dilution after many return to the Hong Kong market. Combining 22 companies that have returned and 64 that could potentially return to Hong Kong, if we assume 40-70% of their shares are traded in Hong Kong, and that the transfer to the Hong Kong stock market would not affect their turnover rates, the potential average daily trading volume of 86 companies listed in Hong Kong would be about HKD37bn-65bn, equivalent to 34%-60% of the average daily trading volume of the Hong Kong stock market in the past three months. 然而2019年以来港股市场扩容（中概股回归），恒生综指交易流动性却有所提升。阿里巴巴、京东、网易、哔哩哔哩回港上市后，美股+港股整体换手率反而有所提升。优质资产股份转移至港股并未释流动性，我们认为或许更应该从动态视角看待此问题。如未来多渠道资金可以良性循环，中概回归的潜在交易流动性压力或亦相对可控：1）大部分投资中概股的机构投资者均拥有港股投资权限，公司股份转移至港股，或也伴随着可配置资金流入港股。2）优质资产聚集下，香港作为中国新经济“桥头堡”定位进一步夯实，进一步吸引全球资金流入港股市场。3）我们预计未来有望更多中概股选择双重主要上市回归港股、或者由第二上市转为双重主要上市，这些优质公司纳入港股通过后，将会进一步吸引南向资金配置。4）如果中概回港后可以纳入更多市场基准指数，如恒生指数、恒生国企、恒生科技指数，将有望带动资金增配。 The Hong Kong stock market has expanded since 2019 (with the return of China theme stocks), but the trading liquidity of the Hang Seng Composite Index has increased. After Alibaba, JD.com, NetEase and Bilibili returned to list in Hong Kong, overall turnover rates of US and HK stocks have increased. The transfer of high-quality asset shares to Hong Kong stocks has not released liquidity, but we believe that this should be viewed from a dynamic perspective. With a virtuous cycle of multi-channel funds in the future, after China theme stocks return to the Hong Kong market, potential trading liquidity pressure would be relatively manageable: 1)Most institutional investors that invest in China theme stocks also have the right to invest in Hong Kong stocks, and when shares return to the Hong Kong market, the funds available for allocation could also flow into the Hong Kong stock market. 2)With the accumulation of high-quality assets, Hong Kong‘s positioning as the strategic arena for China‘s new economy is further consolidated, which would further attract global capital into the Hong Kong stock market. 3)We expect more China theme stocks will choose a dual primary listing in Hong Kong in the future, or switch from a secondary listing to a dual primary listing. After high-quality companies are included in Hong Kong stocks, they could beef up southbound capital flows. 4)If China theme stocks are included in more market benchmark indexes after returning to the Hong Kong market, such as the Hang Seng Index, Hang Seng State-owned Enterprises, Hang Seng Technology Index, this would mean more funds available for allocation. 风险提示：我们的测算基于部分的现行定量规则和历史数据，并且假设具有主观性；中概股审计监管政策存在不确定性；中概股大面积回港后，能否形成多渠道资金循环具有不确定性。 Risks include: our estimates are based in part on current quantitative rules and historical data, and our assumptions are subjective; uncertainties related to review and supervision policies on China-theme stocks; and uncertainties over whether a multi-channel capital cycle could form with a large number of China-theme stocks returning to Hong Kong. 以下为研报节选，查看更多请联系天风国际销售团队或访问天风国际研报网页。 The following is an extract. For the full report, please contact our sales team or visit the TFI report website. 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