卓越新能: 走生物质能化一体化道路,备战工业品减碳大市场!

（以下内容从天风证券《卓越新能: 走生物质能化一体化道路,备战工业品减碳大市场!》研报附件原文摘录）
　　Longyan Zhuoyue New Energy (688196 CH) 走生物质能化一体化道路，备战工业品减碳大市场！ Initiating coverage: biofuel integration buildout ahead of lower-carbon industrial products’ massive market TP:RMB91.80 BUY (Initiation) 投资要点/Investment Thesis 投资要点/Investment Thesis 1、卓越新能：国内生物柴油龙头，技术领先 公司是我国产销规模最大、持续经营时间最长的生物柴油企业，现已形成“生物质能化一体化”的产业布局，主要产品涉及1）生物质能源：生物柴油；2）生物基化学材料。截至2022年3月，公司拥有生物柴油产能40万吨/年，生物基材料产能9万吨/年。公司研发实力行业领先，现已进入产能快速释放阶段，将以“用3至5年时间达到产能规模生物柴油75万吨/年、生物基材料25万吨/年”为目标，高速发展。 Zhuoyue New Energy: Chinese biodiesel tech leader Zhuoyue plows the biomass energy integration industrial market with the longest operational history. It is also China’s largest biodiesel company in production and sales terms. Its main product categories are 1) biofuel, including biodiesel, and 2) biochemical materials. It has a biodiesel production capacity of 400kt p.a. and a biomaterials capacity of 90kt p.a. as of March 2022. It leads the industry in R&D technology and has entered a phase of rapid production capacity rollouts, heading for production capacity targets of 750kt p.a. biodiesel and 250kt p.a. biomaterials in 3-5 years. 2、生物柴油：欧盟市场量价齐升，供不应求 “生物柴油”产业链主要涉及1）酯基生物柴油；2）烃基生物柴油，也称“可再生柴油”，需要加氢；3）生物航空煤油，是一种可持续航空燃料(SAF)。我国生物柴油产业有望长期受益于欧盟为达减碳目标而不断上涨的对相关燃料的需求。公司生物柴油业务伴随欧盟市场需求起飞，自2015年后步入业绩高增长期，率先分享欧盟市场供需缺口红利。2019年后，欧盟政策对减碳力度的不断提升，生物柴油进入长期的量价齐升轨道，公司业务业绩随产能不断释放也进一步受益。我国于2021年提出碳中和的目标，2022年来，相关政策持续颁布，公司业务或将进一步受益国内市场发展。 Biodiesel: rising EU volumes and prices; supply shortage The biodiesel supply chain mainly covers 1) ester biodiesel; 2) hydrocarbon biodiesel, also known as renewable diesel, which requires hydrogenation; 3) bio-aviation kerosene, a sustainable aviation fuel (SAF). We expect China’s biodiesel industry to benefit from rising EU demand to meet carbon reduction targets in the long term; Zhuoyue’s biodiesel business has taken off on rising EU demand. It entered a high-growth cycle in 2015, benefiting from the shortfall in EU supply, and after 2019, the EU’s carbon reduction policy continues to improve. As the biodiesel market enters a long-term cycle of volume and price increases, the company’s business performance would benefit as it continues to roll out production capacity releases. China set carbon neutral targets in 2021 and has implemented policies to achieve its goals in 2022. We expect the company’s business to benefit from domestic market developments. 3、生物材料：减碳替代大势所趋，市场广阔 国内外相关政策加速落地，减碳要求正逐渐从能源领域向制造领域延伸：1）欧盟碳关税法规时间一再提前，范围扩大至塑料等多种制品，一旦正式实施，我国生产商出口成本或将受到较大影响；2）“替代传统化学原料”是我国“十四五”生物经济规划目标之一。生物柴油作为化石柴油的替代品，具有与石油作为动力燃料和化学材料相同的目标市场。公司已储备多种以生物柴油为原料的生物基化学原料产品，包括1）工业甘油：生柴副产品，作为化学中间体用途多；2）生物酯增塑剂：替代石油基增塑剂，用于塑料生产；3）醇酸树脂：用于油漆/涂料生产，能减少有害气体排放；4）天然脂肪醇：是表面活性剂行业绿色化的发展方向；5）生物基丙二醇：用于生物质PTT纤维、化妆品领域。 Biomaterials: broad market for low-carbon alternatives and substitution As China and other countries ramp up the implementation of green energy policies, the lower-carbon regulatory reach has extended from the energy sector to manufacturing. We note the following points: ·The EU has implemented carbon tariff regulations ahead of schedule time and again, expanding the scope to a variety of products, including plastics. Once they become official, China’s manufacturers’ export costs would be somewhat affected. ·The replacement of traditional chemical raw materials is one of China’s bio-economic objectives under its 14th Five-Year Plan. As a fossil diesel substitute, biodiesel has the same target markets as a power fuel and chemical material. Zhuoyue has stockpiled a variety of biochemical raw material products using biodiesel as the raw material, including: (1) industrial glycerin: a biodiesel by-product, it has many uses as a chemical intermediate; (2) bioester plasticizers: replace petroleum-based plasticizers in plastic production; (3) alkyd resin: used in paint and coatings production, can reduce harmful gas emissions; (4) natural fatty alcohols: the green development trend in the surfactant industry; and (5) bio-based propylene glycol: used in biomass PTT fiber and the cosmetics industry. 投资建议/Investment Ideas 盈利预测&投资建议：预计2022-2024年，公司实现营收43.25/ 58.59/ 74.55亿元，归母净利润4.83/ 6.48/ 8.13亿元，对应EPS 4.03/ 5.40/ 6.77元/股，2022年6月3日股价对应PE为16.2/ 12.1/ 9.7x。我们看好公司作为当前在运行&目标产能均为国内第一的生物柴油生产商，同时新产能快速释放，并有望率先分享全球减碳大背景相关需求快速提升带来的红利，给予2023年17倍目标PE，对应目标价91.80元，首次覆盖给予“买入”评级。 Valuation and risks: We expect the company to achieve revenue of RMB4.33bn/5.86bn/7.46bn and net profit of RMB483m/648m/813m in 2022/23/24E, corresponding to EPS of RMB4.03/5.40/6.77. The corresponding PEs as of 3 June 2022 are 16.2/12.1/9.7x. We like the company’s positioning as China’s largest biodiesel producer, based on both current operating and target production capacities. We believe its incremental production capacity rollout will progress quickly and it would be among the first to benefit from rapid demand increases amid a carbon reduction global trend. We assign a target PE of 17x in 2023E, which derives our target price of RMB91.80. We initiate coverage with a BUY rating. 风险提示：国内外减碳政策落实进展不达预期；原材料采购/出口业务变动&生物柴油价格波动/核心技术和管理人员储备供应不足/环保及安全生产的风险；产能释放节奏不及预期；公司流通市值较小风险。 Risks include: the implementation of Chinese and foreign carbon reduction policies progressing below expectations; raw material procurement and export business changes, and biodiesel price volatility; insufficient supply of key technology and management personnel; environmental protection and production safety risks; a slower production capacity release pace than expected; and small market cap risks. 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