策略专题:如何看待中报的“不好”?

（以下内容从天风证券《策略专题:如何看待中报的“不好”?》研报附件原文摘录）
　　China Strategy 如何看待中报的“不好”？ Mid-year results expectations: bad news and good news 投资要点/Investment Thesis 投资要点/Investment Thesis 在5月初的报告《如何看待反弹的空间和方向？》中，我们提到，指数反弹到3月中旬的平台（即疫情引发的恐慌之前）是个大致合理位置。目前，指数已经很接近目标位置。 另外，前期对比武汉疫情的报告《关于疫后修复的行业比较：一个重要逻辑思路》中，我们也提到： 武汉疫情前本来就在复苏趋势中的经济，随着武汉疫情平息，叠加出口和制造业的大幅改善，很容易就重回复苏的轨道，对应股票市场反转。 但，考虑到上海疫情前本就处于衰退的趋势中，叠加后续逐步转弱的出口和制造业，疫后很快复苏和市场直接反转的概率较低。 但是，可以“效仿”武汉疫情前后的宏观逻辑和整体 A 股情况，寻找上海疫情前后，符合这一特点的细分行业或者产业链，比如： （1）上海疫情前，本来就处于上行周期的行业（与经济总需求下行关系不大），但是在疫情期间被中断了供应链或者被暂时干扰了需求——较为典型的行业包括军工、新能源基建、汽车半导体、医美。 （2）上海疫情前，正要逐步接近困境反转的行业（按照自身产业周期运行），但是被疫情延后了——较为典型的包括信创、药房、调味品食品加工、旅游酒店、餐饮。 Wuhan recovery as a case study In our report in early May, How to gauge the rally market potential size and growth direction?, we said the index rally to the mid-March plateau (i.e. before the pandemic-induced panic) was in a somewhat reasonable position; currently, the index is nearing its target position. In a prior report comparing the Wuhan outbreak, Industry comparisons in a post-pandemic recovery: key investment perspectives, we said the economy, which had been on a recovery trend before the Wuhan outbreak, would easily return to the recovery trend when the Wuhan pandemic effects subsided, on top of strong improvements in exports and manufacturing, leading to a stock market turnaround. As for Shanghai, considering that it was already in a recessionary trend prior to the outbreak, on top of subsequent weakening in exports and manufacturing, we think that a recovery and direct market turnaround soon after the pandemic is unlikely. However, by tracking macro environment factors and A-share performance before and after the outbreak, we can look for segments and supply chains within the Shanghai market that fit the Wuhan profile. (1) Industries in an upward cycle before the outbreak (that were little affected by falling aggregate demand) and which had their supply chains or demand disrupted: these include the military, new energy infrastructure, automotive semiconductors and medical aesthetics. (2) Industries that were about to get out of the woods (operating to their own industry cycles) but experienced C19 delays: these include security infotech, pharmacies, condiments and processed food, tourism and hotels, and F&B. 本篇报告，我们重点讨论一个问题：如何看待中报的“不好”？ 1、二季报不好对市场有没有影响？ （1）二季度不好+下半年复苏有信心=二季度不好靴子落地，下半年复苏的高预期，最终会导致市场类似20年初疫情后的快速反转。 （2）二季度不好+下半年复苏仍然不行=二季报不好则会有压力（短期不行+中期面临不确定）。 当前主要是交易政策预期，未来的核心在于政策能否把疫情前经济的“逆风车”扭转为“顺风车”，重点关注下半年复苏的预期，这里的试金石和检验标准是中长期贷款增速回到今年3月之前的增速。 What can mid-year reports inform us? Finding good news within bad news 1. How far could poor 2Q reports impact the market? (1) A weak 2Q coupled with confidence in a 2H recovery = a shaky 2Q performance would lead to high expectations of a 2H recovery, which would eventually lead to a quick market turnaround, similar to the early phase of the pandemic in early 2020. (2) A weak 2Q coupled with a perception that a 2H recovery is unlikely = 2Q weakness adds pressure (no relief in the short term and uncertainty in the medium term). Current expectations center on trading policy. Future performance will hinge on whether policy could help turn pre-pandemic economic headwinds into tailwinds. In terms of 2H recovery expectations, the litmus test is whether medium to long-term loans will bounce back to the growth rates before pre-March 2022. 2、如何在二季报附近确认下半年复苏的预期？ 构建从宏观→中观→微观的印证框架：宏观层面（居民、企业中长期贷款，月度）→中观层面（基建订单、专项债配套融资、地产销售，月度）→微观层面（盈利预期下修比例，可周度、半月、月度）。 （1）宏观层面：检验稳增长的重要标准是【中长期贷款增速】。每一次股票市场反转的时候，都出现中长期贷款的拐点。重点关注增速是否会超过3月中长期贷款增速。 （2）中观层面：中长期贷款起来主要靠政策扭转地产预期、加大基建力度，因此可以通过基建订单、专项债配套融资、地产销售的数据进行提前预判。 （3）微观层面：上市公司盈利预期下修比例与市场走势呈现明显负相关关系，关注22年盈利预期下修比例 2. What are 2H recovery expectations as we approach the 2Q earnings season? Start with a macro framework → incorporate the mid-level view → conduct a sanity check with a micro framework: macro level (medium and long-term personal and corporate loans; monthly) → mid-level (infrastructure order books, special-purpose bonds, real estate sales; monthly) → micro level (the proportion of downward earnings estimate revisions; weekly, fortnightly and monthly). (1) Macro level: growth rates of medium and long-term loans are key indicators of growth stability. Each stock market turnaround has been accompanied by inflection points in both medium and long-term loans. Hence, we would monitor whether growth rates of medium and long-term loans exceed March 2022 levels. (2) Mid-level: since a recovery in medium and long-term loans is mainly driven by the policy impact on real estate expectations and infrastructure market growth, key indicators of future growth expectations are infrastructure order books, special-purpose bonds and real estate sales. (3) Micro level: the proportion of downward revisions in earnings expectations for listed companies has a significant negative correlation with market trends. Hence, we would monitor the proportion of downward revisions for 2022E earnings estimates. 3、海外对A股下半年的影响？ 二季报不好+下半年复苏仍然不行，外围因素发酵的情况下，A股面临海外加息和衰退可能会有压力。具体可以关注美联储议员表态的变化、通胀预期相关数据（失业率、职位空缺、工资同比增速等）。这也将决定A股市场将会面临海外多大的压力。 3. How far would foreign factors impact A-shares in 2H22E? When poor 2Q earnings reports are released alongside the perception of an unlikely 2H recovery, foreign market factors, such as rate hikes and recession, could add pressure to A-shares. We would watch closely for any changes in statements by US Fed members and monitor inflation expectations data (including unemployment rates, job vacancies and yoy wage growth rates. These would indicate the extent of the foreign impact on A-share market pressure. 4、中报预期不错的toG端有望继续走“顺风车” 疫情前近期向上行业（主要是toG）有望继续走“顺风车”行情。上海疫情前，本来就处于上行周期的行业（与经济总需求下行关系不大），但是在疫情期间被中断了供应链或者被暂时干扰了需求——较为典型的行业包括军工、新能源基建、汽车半导体、医美等医疗服务，toG端和经济总量相对脱敏，相对较抗跌，即便后续再次调整，将会面临较好布局的机会。 4. Business-to-govt sector’s mid-year expectations could see further tailwinds We expect the pre-Covid near-term uptrend (mostly in the B2G industry) will continue to reflect market tailwinds. Prior to the recent outbreak in Shanghai, the market was on an uptrend (bearing little impact from the sharp fall in aggregate demand), but the outbreak brought supply chain and demand disruptions to industries such as the military, new energy infrastructure, automotive semiconductors and medical services like medical aesthetics. The B2G industry was less sensitive to aggregate economic data and thus more resilient against declines. Even with another correction in the future, we believe this market would have better structural growth opportunities. 风险提示：宏观经济风险，业绩不及预期风险，国内外疫情风险。 Risks include: macroeconomic risks; weaker-than-expected results; and pandemic resurgence in the Chinese or foreign markets. 以下为研报节选，查看更多请联系天风国际销售团队或访问天风国际研报网页。 The following is an extract. For the full report, please contact our sales team or visit the TFI report website. 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