石英股份:高纯石英砂供需偏紧,市占率有望加速提升

（以下内容从天风证券《石英股份:高纯石英砂供需偏紧,市占率有望加速提升》研报附件原文摘录）
　　Jiangsu Pacific Quartz (603688 CH) 高纯石英砂供需偏紧，市占率有望加速提升 Initiating coverage: Pacific Quartz’s market share growth could speed up on core material supply tightness TP:RMB130.50 BUY (Initiation) 投资要点/Investment Thesis 投资要点/Investment Thesis 高纯石英砂：石英坩埚核心材料，未来价格弹性充足，核心看供给 高纯石英砂是硅片生产耗材石英坩埚的主要原材料，供给集中度较高（21年CR3达85%），我们认为行业核心在供给，未来供应增量有望主要来自石英股份，供需有望持续偏紧，价格弹性可观。 High-purity quartz sand: supply is key dynamic; good price elasticity prospects We believe high-purity quartz sand has good price elasticity prospects. It is the main raw material in quartz crucibles, which are consumables used in the production of silicon wafers. The high-purity quartz sand market is also highly concentrated at a 85% CR3 as of 2021. We believe the key industry dynamic will be supply, with incremental supply mostly from Pacific Quartz (PQ). We expect the supply-demand tightness to persist, which implies considerable price elasticity in the future. 需求端，若22/23年硅片产量330/450GW，1GW对应单晶炉75/70台，10天坩埚更换周期计算，考虑石英坩埚减薄及损耗的因素，单只坩埚石英砂耗量分别为82/80kg，对应石英砂需求分别为7.3/9.1万吨。若考虑N型硅片坩埚更换周期缩短，22/23年对石英砂需求量约7.8、10.0万吨。 Demand market: To gauge future demand levels, we assume silicon wafer production levels of 330/450GW in 2022/23E, 75/70 single-crystal furnaces per GW, a 10-day crucible replacement cycle, while factoring in crucible wear and tear. Our numbers show that quartz sand consumption would amount to 82/80kg per crucible in 2022/23E, with quartz sand demand at 73/91kt. For the N-type silicon wafer crucible’s shorter replacement cycle, quartz sand demand would amount to about 78/100kt. 而供给端的增量主要在国内的石英股份，其他增量有限。海外主要供给为尤尼明和TQC，根据估算，二者22年光伏石英砂外销产能约4.2万吨（近50%份额），其矿源均在美国，受到严苛环保限制+70%的新增尾矿长石产能无法处理，未来几无增量；其他厂商规模较小，寻找新矿源能力较弱，预计年新增供给约5000吨。主要增量来自石英股份22/23年外销分别为3.2/4.6万吨（21年仅1.4万吨），按估算，行业22/23年总外销产能8.8/10.8万吨，供需比仅为1.13/1.08。按内层砂占比30%计算，其22/23年需求分别为2.3/3万吨，而内层砂供给以海外为主，石英砂结构性紧缺将更严重。 PQ accounts for most incremental supply: Unimin and TQC are the main foreign suppliers. We estimate their combined export production capacity for photovoltaic quartz sand at about 42kt in 2022E (nearly 50% of the market), with all of their source mines in the US. Its strict environmental protection restrictions means that 70% of the increase in feldspar production capacity cannot be processed, limiting incremental supply in the future. Other manufacturers have smaller scale and low mine sourcing capability. We estimate annual incremental supply at about 5kt and that PQ provides the bulk of incremental export supply at 32/46kt in 2022/23E (vs only 14kt in 2021). We estimate total export production capacity at 88/108kt in 2022/23E, with supply-demand ratios of only 1.13/1.08. With inner-layer sand accounting for 30%, we estimate inner-layer sand demand at 23/30kt in 2022/23E. With inner-layer sand supplied mainly by foreign companies, the structural supply shortage in quartz sand is significant. 供需紧平衡状态下，我们认为石英砂价格弹性充足：高纯石英砂仅占硅片成本的9.4%，石英砂价格上涨50%，对应单瓦硅片成本仅上升约3分，下游对石英砂涨价接受度较高。综上，我们认为，在供需格局的催化下，未来石英砂价格有望大幅上涨。 Supply tightness implies good price elasticity prospects: high-purity quartz sand accounts for only 9.4% of the silicon wafer cost; if the cost of quartz sand rises by 50%, cost per silicon wafer would increase by only 3ppt. As the downstream market is more tolerant of price increases, we expect the price of quartz sand to rise strongly in the future in view of the supply-demand landscape. 与海外厂商相比，公司成本优势可观：石英股份的原材料成本占比80%以上，制造费用占比较低，从而拉开了与海外厂商的成本差距。过去3年，尤尼明价格3-4万元/吨，而公司仅1.8-2.1万元/吨，尽管产品质量上存在差距，但公司产品综合性价比优于国外厂商。 Competitive advantages of Pacific Quartz Costs: compared with foreign manufacturers, Pacific Quartz has a considerable cost advantage: its raw materials account for more than 80% of production cost and manufacturing expenses are low, leading to a wide cost gap with foreign manufacturers. In the past three years, Unimin’s price hovered at RMB30,000-40,000/t, while PQ’s ranged only within RMB18,000-21,000/t. Although there is a gap in product quality, PQ’s cost-effective products on the whole are better than those of foreign manufacturers, in our view. 与国内厂商相比，先发优势+规模效应显著：经验上，公司早在09年就突破石英砂提纯技术，实现高纯石英砂量产，10余年积累了丰富的不同矿源提纯经验，在提纯工艺方面处于国内领先水平。规模上，公司目前总产能超过4万吨，外销光伏产能超过3万吨，而国内其他厂商均在万吨以下，规模优势让公司更容易与矿主签订保量协议，在海外矿源开发上占优。产能方面，随着二期2万吨产能投产以及强邦石英收购完成，22年底总产能有望达到4.6万吨。此外，公司规划1.5万吨产能预计在23年投产，23年底总产能有望突破6万吨。21年底公司市占率21%，23年底有望超过40%。 First mover in China: the company mastered quartz sand purification technology as early as in 2009 and achieved high-purity quartz sand mass production. It has leading purification technology in China. Scaling up production: PQ’s current total production capacity exceeds 40kt and its export PV production capacity exceeds 30kt, while other Chinese manufacturers are scaled below 10kt. Its scale advantage allows the company to sign volume-guarantee agreements with mine owners, also an advantage in foreign mineral resource development. In terms of production capacity, with the completion of the second phase of its 20kt production capacity and the completed acquisition of Qiangbang Quartz, total production capacity would reach 46kt by the end of 2022E. PQ’s plans also include the commencement of 15kt production capacity in 2023E, and total production capacity could exceed 60kt by the end of 2023E. Its market share is 21% as of end-2021 and we expect this to grow to above 40% by the end of 2023E. 投资建议/Investment Ideas 盈利预测：石英砂供需持续偏紧，23/24年均价有望提升至4.5/5万元/吨，22-24年归母净利润分别为5.92/12.78/18.84亿元，22-24年增速78%。给予对应22年PE 78倍，对应目标价130.5元，首次覆盖给予“买入”评级。 Valuation and risks: We believe the quartz sand supply-demand tightness will persist and expect its average price to increase to RMB45,000/50,000/t in 2023/24E. We expect net profit to arrive at RMB592m/1.28bn/1.88bn in 2022/23/24E, with a CAGR of 78%. We assign a 2022E PE of 78x to Pacific Quartz, which derives our target price of RMB130.50. We initiate coverage of the company with a BUY rating. 风险提示：石英砂矿源开发不及预期；石英坩埚产品替代风险；产能扩张不及预期；半导体产品认证不及预期；测算具有一定主观性,仅供参考 Risks include: development of quartz sand ore sourcing falls below expectations; quartz crucible replacement risks; capacity expansion falls below expectations; and worse-than-expected semiconductor product certifications. Note: our analysis is subject to a certain degree of subjectivity and is for reference only. 以下为研报节选，查看更多请联系天风国际销售团队或访问天风国际研报网页。 The following is an extract. For the full report, please contact our sales team or visit the TFI report website. 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