同飞股份: 从工业温控设备到储能温控,开启第二增长曲线

（以下内容从天风证券《同飞股份: 从工业温控设备到储能温控,开启第二增长曲线》研报附件原文摘录）
　　Sanhe Tongfei Refrigeration (300990 CH) 从工业温控设备到储能温控，开启第二增长曲线 Initiating coverage: temperature-control industrial equipment leader adds second driver in energy storage TP:RMB122.30 BUY (Initiation) 投资要点/Investment Thesis 投资要点/Investment Thesis 国内领先工业温控设备厂商，下游覆盖面较广 公司2001年成立，为国内领先的工业温控设备生产商，主要为数控装备和电力电子装置提供温控设备。公司营业收入从2017年3.34亿元提升至2021年8.29亿元，CAGR+25.5%；此外，公司2021年成功进军储能温控行业，拓展阳光电源等多个头部储能集成商客户。 Temperature-control industrial equipment leader widens downstream coverage Founded in 2001, Tongfei is a leading Chinese manufacturer of temperature-control industrial equipment mainly geared to numerical control and power electronic devices. Revenue rose from RMB334m in 2017 to RMB829m in 2021, a CAGR of +25.5%. Its temperature control business expanded from industrial equipment to energy storage in 2021, extending its customer reach to energy storage integrator leaders like Sungrow. 传统业务：行业增速稳定，技术水平+客户结构打造公司基本盘 下游行业景气度：1）数控装备：上一轮中国机床产量高峰在2011-2014年，以10年左右的更新周期判断，预计2021-2024年中国机床行业将进入高景气周期。2）电力电子装置：公司产品主要用于柔性交流中SVG等无功补偿装置散热，新能源并网发电量提升将带动我国SVG需求增长。 公司层面，技术优势体现为温度控制的高精度化（最高可达±0.1℃）、产品冷却能力覆盖范围广（0.1kW-1200kW）、智能化；公司已成为国内少数具备规模和产品覆盖面的工业温控设备厂商，覆盖下游头部客户。 Traditional business: stable industry growth; tech know-how and customer structure form the company’s fundamentals Downstream boom: 1) CNC equipment: based on a renewal cycle of about 10 years and the last production peak in 2011-14, we expect China’s machine tool industry to enter a boom cycle in 2021-24E. 2) Power electronic devices: its products are mainly used for heat dissipation in reactive power compensation devices such as SVG in flexible AC. We expect the increase in new-energy grid-connected power generation will drive China’s SVG demand growth. The company’s tech advantages are in its high-precision temperature controls (up to ±0.1°C), wide-ranging product cooling capacity (0.1kW-1200kW) and intelligentization. Tongfei is one of the few Chinese temperature-control industrial equipment manufacturers that combine scale and a wide product line-up, which has led it to count downstream leaders among its customers. 储能温控业务：行业高增速+公司差异化优势，有望开启第二增长曲线 行业增速：电化学储能在全球的应用重要性快速提高；同时随着储能项目的发热量提升，我们预计液冷的渗透率亦将快速提升。我们预计，行业市场空间将由2021年的15亿元上升至2025年的221亿元，CAGR+96%。 High-growth energy storage business: differentiation enables second driver Global market growth: the global application of electrochemical energy storage has become crucial and is rising rapidly. We expect the penetration of liquid cooling equipment to rise with the rise in calorific value of energy storage projects. The market size could increase from RMB1.5bn in 2021 to RMB22.1bn in 2025E, a CAGR of +96%. 公司进军储能温控的基础：传统业务与储能温控的技术要求（包括温湿度高恒定性、户外工况下正常工作、长时间稳定运行等）及工作原理（电气箱恒温装置对应风冷、液体恒温设备对应液冷）均高度相似。 Rationale for entry into energy storage: the high similarity of traditional and energy storage temperature-control tech requirements (temperature and humidity stability, normal operations in outdoor work, sustainable operational stability) and working principles (air-cooled electrical box thermostats and liquid-cooled liquid thermostats). 公司进军储能温控的差异性优势：为高精度温度控制能力和高定制化能力。1）技术层面，数控机床温控对温度控制能力要求高于储能温控行业；2）非标化能力层面，电力电子装置的结构、功能、工况等较储能项目更多样化，纯水冷却单元产品定制化程度更高。 Tongfei’s competitive differentiation in energy storage temperature controls is mainly reflected in its high-precision temperature controls and high customizations. 1) Tech edge: temperature regulation of CNC machine tools requires higher capabilities than that of energy storage. 2) Non-standardization capability: the company’s power electronic devices’ structure, functions and working conditions are a more diverse range than energy storage projects, and its pure water cooling units have higher customization. 展望未来：我们认为，公司有望凭更高的温度控制能力及定制化水平等差异化优势，在下游多点开发供应商的过程中持续开拓新客户，扩大市场份额（尤其为液冷市场），依靠行业高增速开启第二增长曲线。 Looking ahead: we believe the company will leverage its differentiation advantages such as higher temperature control and customization capabilities (especially in liquid cooling) to acquire new customers and expand market share, while developing suppliers across multiple downstream markets. This high-growth industry adds a second growth driver for Tongfei. 投资建议/Investment Ideas 盈利预测与估值：我们预计公司2022-2024年营收分别为12.6、17.7、23.2亿元（其中储能温控收入分别为3、6、10.2亿元），归母净利分别为1.65、2.93、3.64亿元，yoy+37.9%/77.3%/24.2%。 同行业可比公司中，英维克、佳力图、高澜股份2023年PE分别为24X、22、13X，考虑公司储能温控业务及归母净利高增速，以及同类型公司估值水平，给予2023年PE 22X，对应股价122.3元，首次覆盖，给予“买入”评级。 Valuation and risks：We forecast revenue will arrive at RMB1.26bn/1.77bn/2.32bn in 2022/23/24E (including energy storage temperature control revenue at RMB300m/600m/1.02bn) and net profit at RMB165m/293m/364m, up 37.9%/77.3%/24.2%. We note that 2023E PEs of peers Envicool Tech, Canatal Data-Centre and Goaland Energy at 24x, 22x and 13x respectively. Considering the high growth rates of Tongfei’s energy storage temperature control business and peers’ net profit and valuation levels, we assign a 2023E PE of 22x, corresponding to a target price of RMB122.30. We initiate coverage with a BUY rating. 风险提示：宏观经济波动风险、新能源发电投资不及预期、储能温控产品拓展不及预期、原材料价格进一步上涨。 Risks include: macroeconomic volatility; lower-than-expected investments in new energy power generation; slower-than-expected expansion in energy storage temperature control products and a persistent rise in raw material prices. 以下为研报节选，查看更多请联系天风国际销售团队或访问天风国际研报网页。 The following is an extract. For the full report, please contact our sales team or visit the TFI report website. Email: equity@tfisec.com TFI research report website: (pls scan the QR code) 本文件由天风国际证券集团有限公司, 天风国际证券与期货有限公司（证监会中央编号：BAV573）及天风国际资产管理有限公司（证监会中央编号：ASF056）（合称“天风国际集团”）编制，所载资料可能以若干假设为基础，仅供专业投资者作非商业用途及参考之用途，会因经济、市场及其他情况而随时更改而毋须另行通知。任何媒体、网站或个人未经授权不得转载、链接、转贴或以其他方式复制发表本文件及任何内容。已获授权者，在使用本文件或任何内容时必须注明稿件来源于天风国际集团，并承诺遵守相关法例及一切使用的国际惯例，不为任何非法目的或以任何非法方式使用本文件，违者将依法追究相关法律责任。本文件所引用之数据或资料可能得自第三方，天风国际集团将尽可能确认资料来源之可靠性，但天风国际集团并不对第三方所提供数据或资料之准确性负责。且天风国际集团不会就本文件所载任何资料、预测及／或意见的公平性、准确性、时限性、完整性或正确性，以及任何该等预测及／或意见所依据的基准作出任何明文或暗示的保证、陈述、担保或承诺而负责或承担任何法律责任。本文件中如有类似前瞻性陈述之内容，此等内容或陈述不得视为对任何将来表现之保证，且应注意实际情况或发展可能与该等陈述有重大落差。本文件并非及不应被视为邀约、招揽、邀请、建议买卖任何投资产品或投资决策之依据，亦不应被诠释为专业意见。阅览本文件的人士或在作出任何投资决策前，应完全了解其风险以及有关法律、赋税及会计的特点及后果，并根据个人的情况决定投资是否切合个人的投资目标，以及能否承担有关风险，必要时应寻求适当的专业意见。投资涉及风险。敬请投资者注意，证券及投资的价值可升亦可跌，过往的表现不一定可以预示日后的表现。在若干国家，传阅及分派本文件的方式可能受法律或规例所限制。获取本文件的人士须知悉及遵守该等限制。 阅读原文 立即开户

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