广东鸿图:一体化压铸方兴未艾,铝压铸龙头迎来全新成长期

（以下内容从天风证券《广东鸿图:一体化压铸方兴未艾,铝压铸龙头迎来全新成长期》研报附件原文摘录）
　　Guangdong Hongtu Technology (002101 CH) 一体化压铸方兴未艾，铝压铸龙头迎来全新成长期 Initiating coverage: aluminum die-cast leader enters new growth cycle as single-piece die-cast market rises TP:RMB 13.49 BUY (Initiation) 投资要点/Investment Thesis 投资要点/Investment Thesis 公司为汽车铝合金压铸领域的龙头 公司在铝合金压铸领域公司深耕二十年，处于行业领先地位。目前公司以压铸和内外饰为公司主营业务。2018-2021年，公司的两项主营业务的营收表现整体较为稳定，压铸营收规模在35-39亿元，内外饰营收规模在19-20亿元。2019-2021年，在外部环境持续严峻的情况下，公司通过拓展业务和精细管理提升盈利能力，实现了利润的底部反转；后续随着国内外疫情、汽车缺芯、原材料价格上涨等扰动因素的改善，以及公司在新能源业务上的持续开拓，公司的盈利能力有望持续提升。 Automotive aluminum alloy die-cast market leader In business for 20 years, aluminum alloy die-cast market leader Hongtu Technology’s two core divisions are die-casting and automotive interiors and exteriors. Revenues were stable over 2018-21: annual die-casting revenue ranged RMB3.5-3.9bn in the period while interiors and exteriors ranged RMB1.9-2bn. Despite deteriorating macro conditions in 2019-21, efforts to expand its business and optimize management led a turnaround from loss to profit. Subsequently, we expect improvements in drag factors like Covid-19, key automotive supply shortages and rising raw material prices. As the company develops its new energy vehicle (NEV) division, we expect profitability will improve. 汽车铝合金压铸行业迎来变局 双碳背景下，轻量化是汽车行业发展的大趋势。铝合金综合性价比突出，是汽车轻量化的首选材料，汽车轻量化带动单车用铝量快速增长。目前汽车用铝合金以压铸铝合金为主，压铸铝合金制品在汽车用铝中约占54%～70%。而新能源汽车行业的发展推动铝合金压铸技术不断创新。特斯拉率先在后地板上应用的一体化压铸技术，相比较现有生产技术能够提高效率、降低成本，因此我们认为一体化压铸技术是未来的发展趋势，其渗透率将逐步提升，有望替代现在的冲压焊接工艺。考虑新技术导入车型的开发周期，我们预计从2023年开始一体化压铸的市场空间将迎来快速提升。据我们测算，国内一体化压铸的市场空间到2025年预计将达272亿规模，2022-2025年的CAGR达221%。 We see a single-piece casting market of RMB27.2bn by 2025E In view of China’s double carbon peak and neutralization targets, lightweight is a major trend in automotive industry development. Lightweight and cost-effective aluminum alloys are materials of choice and per-vehicle aluminum volume is rising rapidly, driven by lightweight autos. Aluminum alloys in automobiles are mainly die-cast and die-cast alloys make up 54-70% of the aluminum used in a vehicle. NEV development is driving innovations in aluminum alloy die-casting technology and Tesla was the first to use single-piece rear casting to raise efficiency and reduce cost. We believe single-piece casting technology represents the future and expect the penetration rate to rise gradually to replace welding and stamping. Factoring the new tech development cycle and model launches, we expect the single-piece casting market size to increase rapidly from 2023E. By our estimates, China’s market size could reach RMB27.2bn by 2025E, a CAGR of 221% over 2022-25E. 短期业绩有望边际改善，长期或将领跑一体化压铸赛道 短期看，公司压铸业务中的新能源相关业务的占比持续提升；内外饰业务方面，公司收购了四维尔丸井50%股权，预计将对应每年约3亿元的营收和约3800万元的净利润；专用车业务方面，公司挂牌转让宝龙汽车股权，优化了公司资产和资源配置，有助于公司集中资源推进压铸板块的业务转型升级。长期看，公司在一体化压铸领域布局较早，已经在铝合金材料、连接技术、压铸工艺等方面有丰富的技术储备，且有6800T底盘一体化结构件产品下线。未来随着公司在一体化后地板总成、一体化电池托盘、一体化前舱总成等部件方面陆续有产品量产，公司有望迎来全新成长期。 Single-piece casting: short-term growth uptick and long-term market leadership We expect the NEV proportion of Hongtu’s die-cast business to increase gradually in the short term. To beef up its interior and exterior decoration business, the company acquired a 50% stake in Swell Marui, which could raise its annual revenue to about RMB300m and net profit to about RMB38m. In its specialized vehicle business, the company listed for sale and transferred the equity of Baolong Automobile, which optimized the company’s asset and resource allocation, and helped it focus resources on a business restructure and die-cast segment upgrades. Planning in advance for long-term single-piece casting growth, the company has built up rich tech reserves in aluminum alloy materials, and connections and die-casting technology. It has offline production for 6,800t single-piece chassis. In the future, it could enter a new growth cycle with the mass production of one-piece rear casting assembly, integrated battery tray, integrated front cabin assembly and other components. 投资建议/Investment Ideas 投资建议：公司为汽车铝合金压铸行业龙头，短期看公司的各业务板块均有望迎来边际改善，带动公司业绩的提升；长期看公司在一体化压铸领域布局较早，进展较快，未来随着公司相关产品的量产，公司营收规模和业绩有望迎来快速提升。我们预计2022-2024年公司的营业收入为68.7亿元、81.6亿元、94.9亿元；归母净利润为4.4亿元（含0.7亿元非经常性损益）、4.9亿元、6.0亿元；对应PE分别为10.3x、9.4x、7.7x。参考可比公司，给予公司2022年除0.7亿元非经常性损益之外的归母净利润19倍PE估值，目标价13.49元，首次覆盖，给予“买入”评级。 Valuation The company is a leader in the automotive aluminum alloy die-cast industry. In the short term, all business segments could see marginal improvements, which would drive up company performance. With mass production, revenue scale and performance would grow exponentially. We expect revenue to arrive at RMB6.87bn/8.16bn/9.49bn and net profit at RMB440m (including RMB70m non-recurring gains)/490m/600m in 2022/23/ 24E; with our corresponding PEs at 10.3x/9.4x/7.7x. Relative to peers, we assign to Hongtu a PE of 19x net profit in 2022E (excluding non-recurring RMB70m) and a target price of RMB13.49. We initiate coverage with a BUY rating. 风险提示：汽车行业景气度下行风险、原材料价格持续处于高位、行业竞争加剧、新业务拓展不及预期、测算有一定主观性存在偏差风险、公司目前流通市值较小、公司近期曾出现股价异动。 Risks include: downside risks to auto industry growth; persistently high raw material prices; intensifying competition; less-than-expected new business expansion; deviation due to analysis subjectivity; currently low valuations; and short-term share price volatility. 以下为研报节选，查看更多请联系天风国际销售团队或访问天风国际研报网页。 The following is an extract. For the full report, please contact our sales team or visit the TFI report website. Email: equity@tfisec.com TFI research report website: (pls scan the QR code) 本文件由天风国际证券集团有限公司, 天风国际证券与期货有限公司（证监会中央编号：BAV573）及天风国际资产管理有限公司（证监会中央编号：ASF056）（合称“天风国际集团”）编制，所载资料可能以若干假设为基础，仅供专业投资者作非商业用途及参考之用途，会因经济、市场及其他情况而随时更改而毋须另行通知。任何媒体、网站或个人未经授权不得转载、链接、转贴或以其他方式复制发表本文件及任何内容。已获授权者，在使用本文件或任何内容时必须注明稿件来源于天风国际集团，并承诺遵守相关法例及一切使用的国际惯例，不为任何非法目的或以任何非法方式使用本文件，违者将依法追究相关法律责任。本文件所引用之数据或资料可能得自第三方，天风国际集团将尽可能确认资料来源之可靠性，但天风国际集团并不对第三方所提供数据或资料之准确性负责。且天风国际集团不会就本文件所载任何资料、预测及／或意见的公平性、准确性、时限性、完整性或正确性，以及任何该等预测及／或意见所依据的基准作出任何明文或暗示的保证、陈述、担保或承诺而负责或承担任何法律责任。本文件中如有类似前瞻性陈述之内容，此等内容或陈述不得视为对任何将来表现之保证，且应注意实际情况或发展可能与该等陈述有重大落差。本文件并非及不应被视为邀约、招揽、邀请、建议买卖任何投资产品或投资决策之依据，亦不应被诠释为专业意见。阅览本文件的人士或在作出任何投资决策前，应完全了解其风险以及有关法律、赋税及会计的特点及后果，并根据个人的情况决定投资是否切合个人的投资目标，以及能否承担有关风险，必要时应寻求适当的专业意见。投资涉及风险。敬请投资者注意，证券及投资的价值可升亦可跌，过往的表现不一定可以预示日后的表现。在若干国家，传阅及分派本文件的方式可能受法律或规例所限制。获取本文件的人士须知悉及遵守该等限制。 阅读原文 立即开户

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