电力设备——海外户用光储景气上行,我们看好什么?

（以下内容从天风证券《电力设备——海外户用光储景气上行,我们看好什么?》研报附件原文摘录）
　　China Electrical Equipment 海外户用光储景气上行，我们看好什么？ Household solar energy storage: how do we view the export market potential? 投资要点/Investment Thesis 投资要点/Investment Thesis 受电价上涨、能源安全、电力保供三层因素影响，海外户用市场大爆发，光伏和储能需求今年来一直超预期。本篇报告将聚焦这一市场，探究这一细分市场需求的持续性及投资机会。核心结论为投资的重点在【超强景气度】，看好弹性大的逆变器、组件、储能电池。 Three factors ？ rising electricity prices, energy source security and supply guarantee issues – have driven the household export market boom this year, with solar energy storage demand exceeding expectations. Our presentation looks at demand sustainability and investment opportunities. We focus on companies with good prospects and profit elasticity in the inverters, modules and energy storage (battery) segments. 1、现象：海外户用光储需求高增 -背景：一方面全球化石能源供需错配抬高能源价格（疫情期间扩产不足，疫情后需求恢复增长），导致欧洲等地区电价大幅上涨；另一方面俄乌战争后欧洲面临断气风险（欧盟39%的天然气进口来自俄罗斯），能源的安全与稳定问题愈发突出。在此情况下，世界各国迫切摆脱化石能源依赖，居民端用电稳定的需求更加强烈，对光伏与储能装机的需求也愈发旺盛。 -现象：欧洲、巴西、澳洲等以分布式装机为主的地区需求保持旺盛，欧洲2月装机或同增100%以上，而巴西21年组件需求也同增66%，在分布式装机需求高增背景下，全球户用储能市场需求也随之增长。 1. Household solar energy storage: the factors driving high export demand: -Backdrop: the global imbalance in fossil fuel supply and demand has pushed up energy prices (inadequate production expansion amid Covid-19 resurgence and the resumption of demand growth), with electricity price spikes in Europe and other regions. After the Russia-Ukraine war broke out, Europe risked having its gas supply cut off (it imports 39% of its natural gas consumption from Russia), bringing energy security and stability issues to the forefront. Globally, this increased the urgency to reduce the reliance on fossil fuels. As demand grows for household electricity consumption stability, solar and energy storage installation demand is also rising. -Factors: strong demand for distributed installatons in Europe, Brazil, Australia and other regions. Installed capacities in Europe likely increased more than 100% yoy in February while component demand in Brazil increased 66% in 2021. As global demand rises for distributed energy installations, household energy storage demand is also rising. 2、思考：海外户用光储需求高增持续性如何 光伏： -从政策端看，全球多国对新能源装机目标上调，例如德国将年均光伏装机目标调高至原来的4倍。针对分布式光伏而言，有的国家和地区制定装机规划或强制性安装要求，如美国多州明确分布式光伏装机目标；有的国家推出补贴政策、税收优惠政策等，如波兰在2021年推出针对农民自用电力设施的补贴和低息贷款，荷兰、意大利在2022年分别推出针对商业或农业分布式光伏的固定补贴政策。 -从经济端看，IRR主要受利用小时数、电价、装机成本三大因素影响。各地利用小时数基本稳定，而新能源上网电价与传统能源同步，叠加绿电、绿证、碳交易等额外增益，光伏电站的电费收入将提升，进而提升装机收益率。我们测算，电价每提升1分钱/度，对应IRR提升0.7pct；此外装机成本随硅料等上游产能释放，也将恢复下降趋势。我们测算，装机成本每下降1毛/W，对应IRR提升0.5pct。 -我们预计22年海外分布式装机达75GW左右，同比增长88%，在全部光伏装机中占比将达到47%（20年约35%）。 2. Household solar energy storage: is the high growth in export demand sustainable? PV: -Policy: we see countries raising their new energy installation targets: Germany upped its average PV installations annual target by 4x. In photovoltaic (PV) distributed electricity, some countries and regions have either made installation plans or set mandatory installation requirements. Many US states have set firmer PV distributed installation targets and some countries have introduced subsidy policies and preferential tax policies. Poland launched subsidies and low-interest loans to help farmers purchase power facilities in 2021, while the Netherlands and Italy are launching fixed subsidy policies for commercial or agricultural PV distributed installations in 2022. -Economics: three factors drive IRR: utilization hours, electricity price and installation cost. Utilization hours are stable in various places and the new-energy on-grid electricity price is in line with that of traditional energy. With green electricity, green certificates and carbon trading benefits, electricity fee revenue at PV power plants would increase, thereby raising installed capacity yield. We estimate that every 1 cent/kWh electricity price increase would raise IRR by 0.7ppt. In addition, installation cost could resume a downward trend with the release of upstream production capacity such as silicon materials. We estimate that for every 10 cents/W decrease in installation cost, IRR would increase 0.5ppt. -We expect overseas distributed installed capacity will reach 75GW in 2022E, up 88% yoy, and account for 47% of all PV installed capacity (from about 35% in 2020). 储能： -从政策端看，多国相关政策包括税收抵免（如意大利达110%）、补贴（如西班牙最大达到700欧元/kWh），户用光储的配置成本得到降低。ü从经济性端看，以德国为例（电价连年上涨，21年达0.32欧元/度、22年1月进一步上涨至0.36欧元/度），不考虑补贴的情况下，相比年累计电费，户用光储系统通过把白天多余电量储存到夜间使用，将在配置后第10年体现出经济性。 -从电力保供看，以澳大利亚为例，输电网呈现狭长、低密度分布的特点，电网未覆盖地区的独立电网基建较薄弱、覆盖区域较少；电网覆盖地区受近年森林大火和风暴等极端天气影响，电力系统稳定安全以及各州电网之间的互联受到威胁。因此居民通过安装户用光储可以保证用电稳定性。 Energy Storage: -Energy policies in many countries include tax credits (110% in Italy), subsidies (Spain provides subsidies of up to EUR700/kWh) and reduced configuration cost for household solar energy storage. -Economics: Taking Germany as an example, its electricity price has gone up each year and it rose to EUR0.32/kWh in 2021 and EUR0.36/kWh in January 2022. In terms of annual electricity cost without subsidies, solar energy storage systems tend to achieve economic efficiency in their 10th year of deployment, with excess electricity being stored during the day for use at night. -Power supply availability: Taking Australia for example, it has a transmission network characterized by long, narrow and low-density distribution. In areas not covered by the power grid, independent power grid infrastructure is relatively weak and covers only a small area; and areas covered by the power grid have been affected by extreme weather such as wild fires and storms in recent years. As a result, the stability and security of power systems and state grid interconnection is under pressure. This encourages households to install solar energy storage systems to ensure electricity supply stability. 投资建议/Investment Ideas 投资：哪些环节最为受益？ -逆变器：户用光储装机高增拉动了光储混合逆变器需求，同时随单片组件功率增加与一拖四产品出现，微逆性价比明显提升，因此我们认为，储能与微逆赛道的增速更高，且市场竞争尚不充分，盈利水平更好。重点推荐【德业股份】（与家电组联合覆盖） 、【禾迈股份】、【锦浪科技】、【固德威】。 -组件：重点推荐在海外（均超60%）分销市场领先的一体化组件企业【晶科能源】（海外占比78%，优势市场在北美，分销占比33%）、【天合光能】（海外占比62%，优势市场在欧洲，分销占比39%）、【晶澳科技】（海外占比61%，优势市场在欧洲，分销占比36%）、【隆基股份】（海外占比60%，优势市场在美洲，分销占比33%）。 -储能电池：建议关注海外家储领域市占率领先的【派能科技】；建议关注受益下游需求增长，有望获得业绩弹性的【鹏辉能源】、【亿纬锂能】，此外，高电价使海外客户具有高储能价格接受度，我们认为各公司有望通过提价传导原材料价格压力，获得盈利能力回升。【派能科技】：海外家储核心供应商（包括Sonnen、Segen等），2019年在德国、英国、意大利等国家和地区已拥有较高的市占率。基于我们测算，出货价格由21Q4的1.33元/Wh涨至22Q1的1.44元/Wh，在出货价格提升带动下，公司毛利率由21Q4的23.1%回升至27.5%。【鹏辉能源】：21年获得欧洲、澳洲的大批量家储业务订单，家储电池产品出货超过10万套，顺利成为三晶电气、古瑞瓦特等头部客户首选供应商。【亿纬锂能】：参股沃太能源（21年家储系统出货全球第5）+成为美国集成商Powin Energy供应商。 Investment strategy: which industry segments have the best potential? Inverters: high-growth household solar storage installations have driven demand for hybrid solar-storage inverters. At the same time, with the growth of single-chip module power and emergence of one-to-four products, the cost-effectiveness of micro-inverters has improved significantly. Therefore, we expect higher energy storage and micro inverters growth rates, with relatively benign competition and better profitability. Our key recommendations are: -Ningbo Deye Technology (605117 CH, BUY, initiation). -Hoymiles Power Electronics (688032 CH, BUY). -Ginlong Technologies (300763 CH, ACCUMULATE). -GoodWe Technologies (688390 CH, BUY). Modules: we highly recommend integrated module companies with a leading position in the distribution export market (over 60%). -Jinko Solar (688223 CH, ACCUMULATE): its export business accounts for 78% and North America is its main market, while distribution accounts for 33%. -JA Solar Technology (002459 CH, BUY): exports account for 61%, especially to Europe, and distribution accounts for 36%. -LONGi Green Energy Technology (601012 CH, BUY): exports account for 60%, mostly to the Americas, and distribution accounts for 33%. Energy storage (batteries): we would monitor: -Eve Energy (300014 CH, BUY): it benefits from downstream demand growth and profit elasticity. In addition, high electricity prices allow export customers to accept high energy storage prices, so we expect the company to pass on raw material price pressure via price increases and to restore profitability. Eve has a stake in AlphaESS (its household storage system shipments were the fifth largest in the world in 2021) and it supplies to Powin Energy, a US system integrator. Other market players (not rated) Modules: Trina Solar (688599 CH): export markets make up 62% of its business, dominated by Europe; and distribution accounts for 39%. Energy storage: Pylon Technologies (688063 CH): industry leader in household storage export market (Sonnen, Segen), particularly Germany, the UK and Italy as of 2019. By our estimates, the shipment price rose from RMB1.33/Wh in 2021Q4 to RMB1.44/Wh in 2022Q1, which expanded its gross margin from 23.1% in 2021Q4 to 27.5%. Guangzhou Great Power Energy and Technology (300438 CH): it obtained large household storage orders from Europe and Australia in 2021, and has shipped more than 100,000 sets. Its customers include Sanjing Electric and Growatt. 风险提示：下游需求不及预期、海外贸易政策变动；测算具有一定主观性，仅供参考。 Risks include: downstream demand falling belowexpectations; overseas trade policy changes; and note that our analysis issubjective and provides a reference only. 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