万泰生物:国产HPV疫苗龙头,产学研模式未来发展可期
（以下内容从天风证券《万泰生物:国产HPV疫苗龙头,产学研模式未来发展可期》研报附件原文摘录）
Beijing Wantai Biological Pharmacy Enterprise (603392 CH) 国产HPV疫苗龙头，产学研模式未来发展可期 Initiating coverage: Chinese HPV vaccine leader’s future-leaning industry-university-research business model TP: RMB 204.17 BUY (Initiation) 投资要点/Investment Thesis 投资要点/Investment Thesis 深耕IVD和疫苗行业超过30年，坚持产学研模式 公司于1991年成立，主要从事体外诊断试剂和疫苗的研发和生产。公司致力于将高校科技成果转化，依托养生堂与厦门大学共建的“国家传染病诊断试剂与疫苗工程技术研究中心”，厦门大学负责科学研究，万泰生物负责将科研成果转化为产品商业化，目前HIV检测试剂盒、戊肝疫苗、HPV疫苗已经成功上市，实现商业化销售。 Industry-university-research model: over 30Y IVD reagent and vaccine experience Established in 1991, Wantai Biopharm engages in the R&D and production of in-vitro diagnostic reagents and vaccines. Its collaboration with Xiamen University’s National Institute of Diagnostics and Vaccine Development in Infectious Diseases fleshes out the university’s scientific research in product commercialization. They have commercialized and launched HIV detection kits, and hepatitis E and HPV vaccines. 疫苗板块：HPV疫苗贡献现金流，技术平台已验证 HPV疫苗未来3年仍可为公司贡献持续快速增长的现金流。1）HPV疫苗仍是供不应求，中国HPV疫苗接种渗透率较低，存量市场仍未被满足。截止2020年底中国累计批签发量约2732.28万支，按照每人接种3针测算，约910.76万人份已完成全程接种，而目前中国9-46岁的女性约3.15亿人，渗透率约为3.7%，目前存量3亿人的市场短期3-5年内还未能被满足。在增量市场方面，每年预计新增500万人接种需求。2）HPV疫苗在研产品较多，中国临床终点是PI12 和 CIN2+，万泰生物产品先上市坐拥先发优势。目前中国共有16个HPV疫苗产品正在研发，其中7个产品正在临床3期，进展最快的是博唯生物和万泰生物的9价HPV疫苗均完成临床试验的入组。3）2021年10月公司HPV二价疫苗获得WHO PQ认证，计划在未来3年逐步注册出口到30个国家，海外亚非拉市场开启第二增长曲线。 Vaccines: HPV business provides cash flow; verified tech platform For these three reasons, we think its HPV vaccines will likely provide cash flow for the next three years: (1) Unfulfilled vaccine demand: HPV vaccines are in short supply, the HPV vaccination penetration is low in China, with unfulfilled market inventory. China issued cumulative batches of about 27.33m doses as of end-2020; based on 3 injections per person, about 9.11m have completed the vaccination process. The penetration rate is about 3.7% among the 315m women aged 9 to 46 years old in China. Currently, the potential short-term demand in the market comes to 300m people for the next 3-5 years. We expect an incremental market of 5m people to be inoculated each year. (2) R&D pipeline: many HPV vaccines are under development. Clinical endpoints in China are PI12 and CIN2+, where Wantai Biopharm is a first mover and its products are first to market. China has 16 HPV vaccine products under development, 7 of which are in clinical phase 3. The fastest progress is in 9-valent HPV vaccines by Bowei Bio and Wantai Biopharm, which have completed the enrollment of clinical trials. (3) Products: Wantai’s HPV bivalent vaccine obtained WHO PQ certification in October 2021. It plans to register and export the product to 30 countries in the next three years. We expect its Asian, African and Latin American markets to be a secondary growth driver. 原核生物表达平台为公司疫苗板块持续发展的核心竞争力。大肠杆菌原核生物表达平台与酵母、昆虫细胞杆状病毒真核表达系统相比，具有生产成本低、效率高、规模易于放大、安全性高的特点。目前大肠杆菌的原核生物表达平台已经证明其通用性，万泰生物已经在这个平台的基础上研发了戊肝疫苗、HPV二价疫苗和HPV九价疫苗，未来将继续将该平台应用于第三代宫颈癌疫苗和轮状病毒疫苗的研发。公司未来管线包括9价HPV、广谱HPV、20价肺炎疫苗、轮状病毒疫苗等。 Prokaryotic expression platform: in terms of sustainable vaccine products, this is the company’s core competitive differential. Compared with yeast and insect cell baculovirus eukaryotic expression systems, its E-coli prokaryotic expression platform is produced at a low cost, highly efficient, highly scalable and safe. The platform has proved its versatility. Based on its success, Wantai Bio went on to develop hepatitis E vaccines, HPV bivalent vaccines and HPV 9-valent vaccines. We expect further applicability in the development of next-generation cervical cancer vaccines and rotavirus vaccines. Its pipeline includes 9-valent HPV, broad-spectrum HPV, 20-valent pneumonia vaccines and rotavirus vaccines. 体外诊断板块：全产品线布局，提供稳定现金流 公司体外诊断产品线全产品线布局，包括免疫、分子、POCT等全领域覆盖，提供IVD整体解决方案。公司坚持实现原料-IVD产品一体化，已建立10多类共300多项原料产品线。在海外市场方面，公司通过差异化产品优势进军国际市场，技术优势的产品包括艾滋病尿液检测试剂、戊肝系列检测试剂、结核IGRA检测试剂等传染病产品线，已覆盖欧洲、美洲等40多个国家和地区。并且公司分别与贝克曼库尔特公司和日本希森美康公司围绕传染病诊断试剂签订合作协议。 In-vitro diagnostics: full-coverage product matrix provides stable cash flow Wantai Biopharm’s in-vitro diagnostic product line covers a wide variety of fields, spanning immunity, molecular and POCT, and it provides total IVD solutions. The company engages in both the raw materials and IVD products, and it has over 300 raw material product lines in more than 10 categories. Its product differentiation in export markets gives it a competitive advantage. Products with a tech edge include HIV urine detection reagents, hepatitis E series detection reagents, tuberculosis IGRA detection reagents and other infectious disease product lines, covering over 40 countries and regions in Europe and the Americas. Wantai Biopharm has signed cooperative agreements on infectious disease diagnostic reagents with Beckman Coulter and Japan’s Sysmex. 投资建议/Investment Ideas 盈利预测：万泰生物HPV二价疫苗和体外诊断产品线持续为公司贡献收入，未来随着HPV疫苗产能逐步释放，预计公司2022-2024年收入分别为100.68、131.53和162.92亿元，净利润分别为38.49、51.99和65.01亿元，当前股价对应2022-2024年的PE分别为35.44、26.24和20.99，目标价为204.17元，首次覆盖，给予“买入”评级。 Valuation HPV bivalent vaccines and in-vitro diagnostic products continue to contribute revenue for Wantai Bio. With the rollout of incremental HPV vaccine production capacities, we expect revenue to amount to RMB10.07bn/13.15bn/16.29bn and generate net profit of RMB3.85bn/5.2bn/6.5bn in 2022/23/24E. Based on the current share price, we assign PEs of 35.44/26.24/20.99 in 2022/23/24E, which derives our target price of RMB204.17. We initiate coverage in this report and rate the stock a BUY. 风险提示：产品销售不及预期、产品研发不及预期、行业竞争加剧的风险、体外诊断试剂集采的风险、HPV疫苗市场空间测算存假设不成立、市场发展不及预期等导致市场空间测算结果偏差、HPV疫苗接种数量变化的风险。 Risks include: lower product sales than expected; slower product development than expected; intensifying competition; risks relating to centralized procurements of in-vitro diagnostic reagents; invalid HPV vaccine market size estimation assumptions; market development not progressing as expected, skewing our market size estimates; and changes in the number of HPV vaccinations. 以下为研报节选，查看更多请联系天风国际销售团队或访问天风国际研报网页。 The following is an extract. For the full report, please contact our sales team or visit the TFI report website. Email: equity@tfisec.com TFI research report website: (pls scan the QR code) 本文件由天风国际证券集团有限公司, 天风国际证券与期货有限公司（证监会中央编号：BAV573）及天风国际资产管理有限公司（证监会中央编号：ASF056）（合称“天风国际集团”）编制，所载资料可能以若干假设为基础，仅供专业投资者作非商业用途及参考之用途，会因经济、市场及其他情况而随时更改而毋须另行通知。任何媒体、网站或个人未经授权不得转载、链接、转贴或以其他方式复制发表本文件及任何内容。已获授权者，在使用本文件或任何内容时必须注明稿件来源于天风国际集团，并承诺遵守相关法例及一切使用的国际惯例，不为任何非法目的或以任何非法方式使用本文件，违者将依法追究相关法律责任。本文件所引用之数据或资料可能得自第三方，天风国际集团将尽可能确认资料来源之可靠性，但天风国际集团并不对第三方所提供数据或资料之准确性负责。且天风国际集团不会就本文件所载任何资料、预测及／或意见的公平性、准确性、时限性、完整性或正确性，以及任何该等预测及／或意见所依据的基准作出任何明文或暗示的保证、陈述、担保或承诺而负责或承担任何法律责任。本文件中如有类似前瞻性陈述之内容，此等内容或陈述不得视为对任何将来表现之保证，且应注意实际情况或发展可能与该等陈述有重大落差。本文件并非及不应被视为邀约、招揽、邀请、建议买卖任何投资产品或投资决策之依据，亦不应被诠释为专业意见。阅览本文件的人士或在作出任何投资决策前，应完全了解其风险以及有关法律、赋税及会计的特点及后果，并根据个人的情况决定投资是否切合个人的投资目标，以及能否承担有关风险，必要时应寻求适当的专业意见。投资涉及风险。敬请投资者注意，证券及投资的价值可升亦可跌，过往的表现不一定可以预示日后的表现。在若干国家，传阅及分派本文件的方式可能受法律或规例所限制。获取本文件的人士须知悉及遵守该等限制。 阅读原文 立即开户
Beijing Wantai Biological Pharmacy Enterprise (603392 CH) 国产HPV疫苗龙头，产学研模式未来发展可期 Initiating coverage: Chinese HPV vaccine leader’s future-leaning industry-university-research business model TP: RMB 204.17 BUY (Initiation) 投资要点/Investment Thesis 投资要点/Investment Thesis 深耕IVD和疫苗行业超过30年，坚持产学研模式 公司于1991年成立，主要从事体外诊断试剂和疫苗的研发和生产。公司致力于将高校科技成果转化，依托养生堂与厦门大学共建的“国家传染病诊断试剂与疫苗工程技术研究中心”，厦门大学负责科学研究，万泰生物负责将科研成果转化为产品商业化，目前HIV检测试剂盒、戊肝疫苗、HPV疫苗已经成功上市，实现商业化销售。 Industry-university-research model: over 30Y IVD reagent and vaccine experience Established in 1991, Wantai Biopharm engages in the R&D and production of in-vitro diagnostic reagents and vaccines. Its collaboration with Xiamen University’s National Institute of Diagnostics and Vaccine Development in Infectious Diseases fleshes out the university’s scientific research in product commercialization. They have commercialized and launched HIV detection kits, and hepatitis E and HPV vaccines. 疫苗板块：HPV疫苗贡献现金流，技术平台已验证 HPV疫苗未来3年仍可为公司贡献持续快速增长的现金流。1）HPV疫苗仍是供不应求，中国HPV疫苗接种渗透率较低，存量市场仍未被满足。截止2020年底中国累计批签发量约2732.28万支，按照每人接种3针测算，约910.76万人份已完成全程接种，而目前中国9-46岁的女性约3.15亿人，渗透率约为3.7%，目前存量3亿人的市场短期3-5年内还未能被满足。在增量市场方面，每年预计新增500万人接种需求。2）HPV疫苗在研产品较多，中国临床终点是PI12 和 CIN2+，万泰生物产品先上市坐拥先发优势。目前中国共有16个HPV疫苗产品正在研发，其中7个产品正在临床3期，进展最快的是博唯生物和万泰生物的9价HPV疫苗均完成临床试验的入组。3）2021年10月公司HPV二价疫苗获得WHO PQ认证，计划在未来3年逐步注册出口到30个国家，海外亚非拉市场开启第二增长曲线。 Vaccines: HPV business provides cash flow; verified tech platform For these three reasons, we think its HPV vaccines will likely provide cash flow for the next three years: (1) Unfulfilled vaccine demand: HPV vaccines are in short supply, the HPV vaccination penetration is low in China, with unfulfilled market inventory. China issued cumulative batches of about 27.33m doses as of end-2020; based on 3 injections per person, about 9.11m have completed the vaccination process. The penetration rate is about 3.7% among the 315m women aged 9 to 46 years old in China. Currently, the potential short-term demand in the market comes to 300m people for the next 3-5 years. We expect an incremental market of 5m people to be inoculated each year. (2) R&D pipeline: many HPV vaccines are under development. Clinical endpoints in China are PI12 and CIN2+, where Wantai Biopharm is a first mover and its products are first to market. China has 16 HPV vaccine products under development, 7 of which are in clinical phase 3. The fastest progress is in 9-valent HPV vaccines by Bowei Bio and Wantai Biopharm, which have completed the enrollment of clinical trials. (3) Products: Wantai’s HPV bivalent vaccine obtained WHO PQ certification in October 2021. It plans to register and export the product to 30 countries in the next three years. We expect its Asian, African and Latin American markets to be a secondary growth driver. 原核生物表达平台为公司疫苗板块持续发展的核心竞争力。大肠杆菌原核生物表达平台与酵母、昆虫细胞杆状病毒真核表达系统相比，具有生产成本低、效率高、规模易于放大、安全性高的特点。目前大肠杆菌的原核生物表达平台已经证明其通用性，万泰生物已经在这个平台的基础上研发了戊肝疫苗、HPV二价疫苗和HPV九价疫苗，未来将继续将该平台应用于第三代宫颈癌疫苗和轮状病毒疫苗的研发。公司未来管线包括9价HPV、广谱HPV、20价肺炎疫苗、轮状病毒疫苗等。 Prokaryotic expression platform: in terms of sustainable vaccine products, this is the company’s core competitive differential. Compared with yeast and insect cell baculovirus eukaryotic expression systems, its E-coli prokaryotic expression platform is produced at a low cost, highly efficient, highly scalable and safe. The platform has proved its versatility. Based on its success, Wantai Bio went on to develop hepatitis E vaccines, HPV bivalent vaccines and HPV 9-valent vaccines. We expect further applicability in the development of next-generation cervical cancer vaccines and rotavirus vaccines. Its pipeline includes 9-valent HPV, broad-spectrum HPV, 20-valent pneumonia vaccines and rotavirus vaccines. 体外诊断板块：全产品线布局，提供稳定现金流 公司体外诊断产品线全产品线布局，包括免疫、分子、POCT等全领域覆盖，提供IVD整体解决方案。公司坚持实现原料-IVD产品一体化，已建立10多类共300多项原料产品线。在海外市场方面，公司通过差异化产品优势进军国际市场，技术优势的产品包括艾滋病尿液检测试剂、戊肝系列检测试剂、结核IGRA检测试剂等传染病产品线，已覆盖欧洲、美洲等40多个国家和地区。并且公司分别与贝克曼库尔特公司和日本希森美康公司围绕传染病诊断试剂签订合作协议。 In-vitro diagnostics: full-coverage product matrix provides stable cash flow Wantai Biopharm’s in-vitro diagnostic product line covers a wide variety of fields, spanning immunity, molecular and POCT, and it provides total IVD solutions. The company engages in both the raw materials and IVD products, and it has over 300 raw material product lines in more than 10 categories. Its product differentiation in export markets gives it a competitive advantage. Products with a tech edge include HIV urine detection reagents, hepatitis E series detection reagents, tuberculosis IGRA detection reagents and other infectious disease product lines, covering over 40 countries and regions in Europe and the Americas. Wantai Biopharm has signed cooperative agreements on infectious disease diagnostic reagents with Beckman Coulter and Japan’s Sysmex. 投资建议/Investment Ideas 盈利预测：万泰生物HPV二价疫苗和体外诊断产品线持续为公司贡献收入，未来随着HPV疫苗产能逐步释放，预计公司2022-2024年收入分别为100.68、131.53和162.92亿元，净利润分别为38.49、51.99和65.01亿元，当前股价对应2022-2024年的PE分别为35.44、26.24和20.99，目标价为204.17元，首次覆盖，给予“买入”评级。 Valuation HPV bivalent vaccines and in-vitro diagnostic products continue to contribute revenue for Wantai Bio. With the rollout of incremental HPV vaccine production capacities, we expect revenue to amount to RMB10.07bn/13.15bn/16.29bn and generate net profit of RMB3.85bn/5.2bn/6.5bn in 2022/23/24E. Based on the current share price, we assign PEs of 35.44/26.24/20.99 in 2022/23/24E, which derives our target price of RMB204.17. We initiate coverage in this report and rate the stock a BUY. 风险提示：产品销售不及预期、产品研发不及预期、行业竞争加剧的风险、体外诊断试剂集采的风险、HPV疫苗市场空间测算存假设不成立、市场发展不及预期等导致市场空间测算结果偏差、HPV疫苗接种数量变化的风险。 Risks include: lower product sales than expected; slower product development than expected; intensifying competition; risks relating to centralized procurements of in-vitro diagnostic reagents; invalid HPV vaccine market size estimation assumptions; market development not progressing as expected, skewing our market size estimates; and changes in the number of HPV vaccinations. 以下为研报节选，查看更多请联系天风国际销售团队或访问天风国际研报网页。 The following is an extract. For the full report, please contact our sales team or visit the TFI report website. Email: equity@tfisec.com TFI research report website: (pls scan the QR code) 本文件由天风国际证券集团有限公司, 天风国际证券与期货有限公司（证监会中央编号：BAV573）及天风国际资产管理有限公司（证监会中央编号：ASF056）（合称“天风国际集团”）编制，所载资料可能以若干假设为基础，仅供专业投资者作非商业用途及参考之用途，会因经济、市场及其他情况而随时更改而毋须另行通知。任何媒体、网站或个人未经授权不得转载、链接、转贴或以其他方式复制发表本文件及任何内容。已获授权者，在使用本文件或任何内容时必须注明稿件来源于天风国际集团，并承诺遵守相关法例及一切使用的国际惯例，不为任何非法目的或以任何非法方式使用本文件，违者将依法追究相关法律责任。本文件所引用之数据或资料可能得自第三方，天风国际集团将尽可能确认资料来源之可靠性，但天风国际集团并不对第三方所提供数据或资料之准确性负责。且天风国际集团不会就本文件所载任何资料、预测及／或意见的公平性、准确性、时限性、完整性或正确性，以及任何该等预测及／或意见所依据的基准作出任何明文或暗示的保证、陈述、担保或承诺而负责或承担任何法律责任。本文件中如有类似前瞻性陈述之内容，此等内容或陈述不得视为对任何将来表现之保证，且应注意实际情况或发展可能与该等陈述有重大落差。本文件并非及不应被视为邀约、招揽、邀请、建议买卖任何投资产品或投资决策之依据，亦不应被诠释为专业意见。阅览本文件的人士或在作出任何投资决策前，应完全了解其风险以及有关法律、赋税及会计的特点及后果，并根据个人的情况决定投资是否切合个人的投资目标，以及能否承担有关风险，必要时应寻求适当的专业意见。投资涉及风险。敬请投资者注意，证券及投资的价值可升亦可跌，过往的表现不一定可以预示日后的表现。在若干国家，传阅及分派本文件的方式可能受法律或规例所限制。获取本文件的人士须知悉及遵守该等限制。 阅读原文 立即开户
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