加入VIP免费下载招银国际-贵州茅台-600519-1Q came in slightly higher than we expected-230417
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贵州茅台(600519) Moutai released its 1Q preliminary financial data that beat expectation withrevenue/ net profits growing by 18/19%, respectively. The data tracked abovethe 15% management guidance given for the numbers for the full year of2023. We attribute the strength mainly to the incremental sales growth fromiMoutai and a strong premiumization effort. We view this positively, and we think this shall help dispel concern on aweak March sales momentum that spread out from the recent Wine Fair(糖酒会). Of note, the news triggered sector share prices to down by c.3%last Monday (10 April). Our recent channel check with distributors indicated that wholesalespricing for sealed Feitian Moutai per bottle has recovered to aboutRMB2,950 (from the low of RMB2,900 in March). Going forward, we seescope for pricing to recover further as channel inventory should easeover a more festive 2Q which clusters with the 5.1 and the Dragon BoatFestival. Earnings change. We maintain our forecasts for now. Moutai is our strong Buy that benefits from China’s reopening themewithin our F&B coverage universe. Valuation. Our TP is based on 41.0x end-23E P/E, which represents long-termaverage since 2019. Our methodology reflects our relative optimism (vis-a-visother F&B diversified of which target multiples are based on -1sd below longterm average) that Moutai is one of the core beneficiaries standing at theforefront of China’s reopening with high certainty in earnings support.
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（以下内容从招银国际《1Q came in slightly higher than we expected》研报附件原文摘录）贵州茅台(600519) Moutai released its 1Q preliminary financial data that beat expectation withrevenue/ net profits growing by 18/19%, respectively. The data tracked abovethe 15% management guidance given for the numbers for the full year of2023. We attribute the strength mainly to the incremental sales growth fromiMoutai and a strong premiumization effort. We view this positively, and we think this shall help dispel concern on aweak March sales momentum that spread out from the recent Wine Fair(糖酒会). Of note, the news triggered sector share prices to down by c.3%last Monday (10 April). Our recent channel check with distributors indicated that wholesalespricing for sealed Feitian Moutai per bottle has recovered to aboutRMB2,950 (from the low of RMB2,900 in March). Going forward, we seescope for pricing to recover further as channel inventory should easeover a more festive 2Q which clusters with the 5.1 and the Dragon BoatFestival. Earnings change. We maintain our forecasts for now. Moutai is our strong Buy that benefits from China’s reopening themewithin our F&B coverage universe. Valuation. Our TP is based on 41.0x end-23E P/E, which represents long-termaverage since 2019. Our methodology reflects our relative optimism (vis-a-visother F&B diversified of which target multiples are based on -1sd below longterm average) that Moutai is one of the core beneficiaries standing at theforefront of China’s reopening with high certainty in earnings support.
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