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卓胜微(300782) Maxscend announced its 3Q22 results. 3Q revenue declined 30.5% YoY and13.6% QoQ to RMB782mn. NP to shareholders fell 54.6% YoY and 20.5% QoQ to RMB233mn. The decline was mainly attributable to the weak mobile market. 3Q GPM increased slightly to 54.1% (vs. 52.4%/52.7% for 1Q/2Q22). We lowered our forecasts for 2022/23E sales by 25%/30%, due to both tough macro environment and prolonged weakness observed in mobile, particularly in Android names. However, considering a series of solid progress achieved from internal R&D (e.g., SAW filter, Diplexer, DiFEM, etc.), we expect the Company will continue to roll out products in new categories that are dominated by overseas names. We maintain a positive outlook for Maxscend, given its leading position in domestic RFFE market and proven track record of its management team. Maintain BUY, with revised TP of RMB107.8 reflecting reducing 22/23E sales. Industry headwind may provide an opportunity for Maxscend. Despitemobile weakness, Maxscend’s 3Q results were resilient. The Company reported GPM of 54.1% (up 1.3% from 2Q), showing its relatively strong position in a broad weak market. GPM is estimated to drop 2% in 2023 due toincreasing yield of new products, but will remain stable at ~50%, much higher than its peers (figure 3). The high GPM will help Maxscend to maintain its leading position in domestic RFFE market by continuously investing in R&D (3Q R&D exp. grew 55.1% YoY). Meanwhile, some smaller peers are struggling to survive. We believe Maxscend will be a beneficiary of a potentialsector consolidation, following the same path of its global peers (e.g., Skyworks and Qorvo). Maxscend’s product portfolio expansion is on schedule. Maxscend’s new fab line has entered mass production. The Company’s own filter products have been shipped. Meanwhile, diplexer and multiplexers are under client testing. We expect the Company to deliver more progress on high-end filterand integrated modules next year. Although the recent U.S. export curb has no impact on RFFE sector, China’s semi localization trend is certain. This will create more opportunities for domestic players. Maintain BUY with TP revised up to RMB107.8. The new TP is based on 36x rollover 23E P/E, lower than 1SD below 2-yr hist. avg. of 43.6 x forward P/E. We kept the valuation of 36x P/E unchanged as we believe 1) semi localization trend is certain and 2) Maxscend is venturing into some key RFFE component areas which are dominated by overseas suppliers (domestic presence in certain components/modules are nearly zero). Potential risks include 1) disappointing demand in mobile, 2) intensified competition, 3) slower-than-expected R&D and 4) further deterioration inmacro environment. Potential upside includes M&A opportunities.
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（以下内容从招银国际《3Q performance dragged by weak mobile; It is always darkest before dawn》研报附件原文摘录）卓胜微(300782) Maxscend announced its 3Q22 results. 3Q revenue declined 30.5% YoY and13.6% QoQ to RMB782mn. NP to shareholders fell 54.6% YoY and 20.5% QoQ to RMB233mn. The decline was mainly attributable to the weak mobile market. 3Q GPM increased slightly to 54.1% (vs. 52.4%/52.7% for 1Q/2Q22). We lowered our forecasts for 2022/23E sales by 25%/30%, due to both tough macro environment and prolonged weakness observed in mobile, particularly in Android names. However, considering a series of solid progress achieved from internal R&D (e.g., SAW filter, Diplexer, DiFEM, etc.), we expect the Company will continue to roll out products in new categories that are dominated by overseas names. We maintain a positive outlook for Maxscend, given its leading position in domestic RFFE market and proven track record of its management team. Maintain BUY, with revised TP of RMB107.8 reflecting reducing 22/23E sales. Industry headwind may provide an opportunity for Maxscend. Despitemobile weakness, Maxscend’s 3Q results were resilient. The Company reported GPM of 54.1% (up 1.3% from 2Q), showing its relatively strong position in a broad weak market. GPM is estimated to drop 2% in 2023 due toincreasing yield of new products, but will remain stable at ~50%, much higher than its peers (figure 3). The high GPM will help Maxscend to maintain its leading position in domestic RFFE market by continuously investing in R&D (3Q R&D exp. grew 55.1% YoY). Meanwhile, some smaller peers are struggling to survive. We believe Maxscend will be a beneficiary of a potentialsector consolidation, following the same path of its global peers (e.g., Skyworks and Qorvo). Maxscend’s product portfolio expansion is on schedule. Maxscend’s new fab line has entered mass production. The Company’s own filter products have been shipped. Meanwhile, diplexer and multiplexers are under client testing. We expect the Company to deliver more progress on high-end filterand integrated modules next year. Although the recent U.S. export curb has no impact on RFFE sector, China’s semi localization trend is certain. This will create more opportunities for domestic players. Maintain BUY with TP revised up to RMB107.8. The new TP is based on 36x rollover 23E P/E, lower than 1SD below 2-yr hist. avg. of 43.6 x forward P/E. We kept the valuation of 36x P/E unchanged as we believe 1) semi localization trend is certain and 2) Maxscend is venturing into some key RFFE component areas which are dominated by overseas suppliers (domestic presence in certain components/modules are nearly zero). Potential risks include 1) disappointing demand in mobile, 2) intensified competition, 3) slower-than-expected R&D and 4) further deterioration inmacro environment. Potential upside includes M&A opportunities.
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