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三一重工(600031) SANY’s 3Q22 net profit declined 61% YoY to RMB963mn, with earnings largely contributed by finance income and other gains. The lack of gross margin recovery along with the increased distribution expense and R&D spending are the key factors that dragged the earnings. We slash our 2022E/23E/24E earnings forecast by 52%/38%/36% (37%-44% below consensus), largely a result of lower sales volume and higher expense assumptions. We cut our TP to RMB14.7,based on 28x 2022E PE (average since the upcycle starting from 2017 + 1SD).Our above average target multiple is to reflect potential earnings recovery in 2023E driven by low earnings base and oversea market. Maintain HOLD due to the lack of upside potential. Key highlights in 3Q22 results. Revenue dropped 8% YoY to RMB19bn.Gross margin slightly improved 0.6ppt QoQ but still dropped 1.1ppt YoY to 23.8%. Selling & distribution expense ratio increased 2.9ppt YoY to 8.4%,while R&D expense ratio also increased 2ppt YoY to 8.4%. All these drove the EBIT down 91% YoY to only RMB158mn. Net profit declined 61% YoY to RMB963mn, with profit largely contributed by the finance income and other gains. Operating cash inflow increased 12% YoY to RMB500mn. In 9M22,revenue / net profit dropped 33%/71% YoY to RMB3.6bn. Overseas accounted for 46% of total revenue in 3Q22. We calculate that the overseas revenue in 3Q22 surged 68% YoY to ~RMB9.3bn, driven largely by excavators (+89% YoY, 49% of total overseas revenue). In 9M22, overseas revenue grew 44% YoY to RMB25.9bn. We believe overseas market will continue to serve as a key growth engine that offsets the weakness in China. Bear case scenario: 1.5x P/B. We still value SANY with earnings multiple at present. That said, we think market will potentially switch to asset-based valuation if the downcycle continues. We see 1.5x forward P/B (equivalent to RMB11.4, 21% downside) a key supporting level in the previous trough cycle (2014-17). Upside risk: (1) stabilization of property investment; Downside risks: (1) further weakness in construction activities; (2) slowdown of overseas demand.
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（以下内容从招银国际《Another weak quarter; Still challenging》研报附件原文摘录）三一重工(600031) SANY’s 3Q22 net profit declined 61% YoY to RMB963mn, with earnings largely contributed by finance income and other gains. The lack of gross margin recovery along with the increased distribution expense and R&D spending are the key factors that dragged the earnings. We slash our 2022E/23E/24E earnings forecast by 52%/38%/36% (37%-44% below consensus), largely a result of lower sales volume and higher expense assumptions. We cut our TP to RMB14.7,based on 28x 2022E PE (average since the upcycle starting from 2017 + 1SD).Our above average target multiple is to reflect potential earnings recovery in 2023E driven by low earnings base and oversea market. Maintain HOLD due to the lack of upside potential. Key highlights in 3Q22 results. Revenue dropped 8% YoY to RMB19bn.Gross margin slightly improved 0.6ppt QoQ but still dropped 1.1ppt YoY to 23.8%. Selling & distribution expense ratio increased 2.9ppt YoY to 8.4%,while R&D expense ratio also increased 2ppt YoY to 8.4%. All these drove the EBIT down 91% YoY to only RMB158mn. Net profit declined 61% YoY to RMB963mn, with profit largely contributed by the finance income and other gains. Operating cash inflow increased 12% YoY to RMB500mn. In 9M22,revenue / net profit dropped 33%/71% YoY to RMB3.6bn. Overseas accounted for 46% of total revenue in 3Q22. We calculate that the overseas revenue in 3Q22 surged 68% YoY to ~RMB9.3bn, driven largely by excavators (+89% YoY, 49% of total overseas revenue). In 9M22, overseas revenue grew 44% YoY to RMB25.9bn. We believe overseas market will continue to serve as a key growth engine that offsets the weakness in China. Bear case scenario: 1.5x P/B. We still value SANY with earnings multiple at present. That said, we think market will potentially switch to asset-based valuation if the downcycle continues. We see 1.5x forward P/B (equivalent to RMB11.4, 21% downside) a key supporting level in the previous trough cycle (2014-17). Upside risk: (1) stabilization of property investment; Downside risks: (1) further weakness in construction activities; (2) slowdown of overseas demand.
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