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珀莱雅(603605) With warehouse spreading across Hangzhou, Chengdu, Guangzhou and 85% ofsales deriving from ecommerce platforms, Proya, in our view, is relatively lessimpacted by recent lockdowns in Shanghai and Beijing, and hence betterearnings certainty for 2Q. On the other hand, the expense related to the recall forits sunblocker could have weighted on Proya’s 2Q performance. That said,considering a solid 618 sales momentum and a more controlled promotionalexpense (to intentionally buffer for the recall), we think Proya is on track to delivera 2Q that is inline with its full year guidance. Longer term, we are convinced thatProya’s 1) hero product strategy, 2) deepening ecommerce platforms penetration,and 3) proprietary R&D capability, will not only enable the company to persistentlymanage through the pandemic cycles (as it has been since early 2020), but alsoserves as the winning combo to sustain market share gain. We project anindustry-beating 26% 3-year revenue CAGR for 2021-24E, underpinned by 31%growth in its online business, along with a 1.3pp GPM expansion p.a. We initiateProya with BUY. Proya is our top pick along with Botanee. An irreplicable R&D capability as a strong backup of Proya’s marketingstrategies. Proya sets up a new R&D center in Shanghai to gain better accessto industry talents. The office will also be responsible for the research on newproduct formula and raw material experiments. Meanwhile, a research hub/hair care centre will also be established in Japan for the “Off & Relax” brandover 2H22. We think Proya is on a right track to synergize its irreplicable R&Dcapability with its hero products (Ruby and Double Essence) as well as livestreaming distribution, and hence a self-sustaining tangle between the three. Management guidance maintained despite the strict pandemic controls.Proya is still confident to achieve 20-30% top line growth with 40%+ growthfrom online business (implying offline to down by mid-teens). This comes witha similar net profit growth trajectory when a small gross margins expansion ispartially offset by a higher opex ratio, in our view. Valuation. The stock is trading at 43.6 P/E. Our TP is based on 43.5x mid-23E P/E which represents +1sd above the average valuation since 2019,when the market began to re-rate Proya in view of the rising support indomestic brands, and subsequently a timely online migration amid theoutbreak of COVID-19.
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（以下内容从招银国际《On track to synergize its R&D franchise, hero products and live-streaming distribution》研报附件原文摘录）珀莱雅(603605) With warehouse spreading across Hangzhou, Chengdu, Guangzhou and 85% ofsales deriving from ecommerce platforms, Proya, in our view, is relatively lessimpacted by recent lockdowns in Shanghai and Beijing, and hence betterearnings certainty for 2Q. On the other hand, the expense related to the recall forits sunblocker could have weighted on Proya’s 2Q performance. That said,considering a solid 618 sales momentum and a more controlled promotionalexpense (to intentionally buffer for the recall), we think Proya is on track to delivera 2Q that is inline with its full year guidance. Longer term, we are convinced thatProya’s 1) hero product strategy, 2) deepening ecommerce platforms penetration,and 3) proprietary R&D capability, will not only enable the company to persistentlymanage through the pandemic cycles (as it has been since early 2020), but alsoserves as the winning combo to sustain market share gain. We project anindustry-beating 26% 3-year revenue CAGR for 2021-24E, underpinned by 31%growth in its online business, along with a 1.3pp GPM expansion p.a. We initiateProya with BUY. Proya is our top pick along with Botanee. An irreplicable R&D capability as a strong backup of Proya’s marketingstrategies. Proya sets up a new R&D center in Shanghai to gain better accessto industry talents. The office will also be responsible for the research on newproduct formula and raw material experiments. Meanwhile, a research hub/hair care centre will also be established in Japan for the “Off & Relax” brandover 2H22. We think Proya is on a right track to synergize its irreplicable R&Dcapability with its hero products (Ruby and Double Essence) as well as livestreaming distribution, and hence a self-sustaining tangle between the three. Management guidance maintained despite the strict pandemic controls.Proya is still confident to achieve 20-30% top line growth with 40%+ growthfrom online business (implying offline to down by mid-teens). This comes witha similar net profit growth trajectory when a small gross margins expansion ispartially offset by a higher opex ratio, in our view. Valuation. The stock is trading at 43.6 P/E. Our TP is based on 43.5x mid-23E P/E which represents +1sd above the average valuation since 2019,when the market began to re-rate Proya in view of the rising support indomestic brands, and subsequently a timely online migration amid theoutbreak of COVID-19.
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